The GOP's monstrous math problem

[brooklynite]

Axios

Republicans, win or lose next week, face a big — and growing — math problem.

The state of play: They're relying almost exclusively on a shrinking demographic (white men), living in shrinking areas (small, rural towns), creating a reliance on people with shrinking incomes (white workers without college degrees) to survive.

Why it matters: You can't win elections without diversity, bigger population centers and sufficient money.

Flashback: Before President Trump, the GOP acknowledged all this. Then-RNC Chair Reince Priebus said in his "autopsy" after Mitt Romney's loss in 2012: "We need to campaign among Hispanic, black, Asian and gay Americans and demonstrate we care about them, too. We must recruit more candidates who come from minority communities."

[Amishman]

1. We've been talking demographic inevitability for decades

Ultimately the political spectrum is too broad in this country for there to ever be a single long term / permanent majority party.

As society shifts left, the center moves, and the parties eventually rebalance on that center. After this blue wave, the Pubs might stumble for a cycle or two - by the will consolidate eventually a little closer to the current center - which we will have moved away from.

This cycle has been playing out for generations

[Klaralven]

2. The genius of the two party system is that it allows a small minority to control the government

Theoretically 26% can win the primary and then win the general with 51%.

In practice, about 40 of people eligible to vote don't vote - most don't even register. Which makes the percentage of the population for control even smaller.

Furthermore, access to and control of the party machinery is confined to an even smaller percentage, as is the ability to influence public opinion through the media, think tanks, lobbying, the educational systems, etc.

So in the end, there is a pretty small percentage of the population that controls the system. Raw demographics isn't really that significant.

[Dopers_Greed]

3. The GOP is doing a better job of attracting Latinos than we are

If this trend continues, we are doomed.

I've been hearing about "changing demographics" favoring Dems since I voted for the first time 16 years ago.

Still not happening.

[Tommymac]

11. Hogwash. Take that doom and gloom somewhere else.

It absolute IS happening.

Tell Vlad I said hello.

[scrabblequeen40]

12. He calls them low IQ and criminal

It's working great. In their dreams.

In reality, very few latinos give him two shits. B

[bullwinkle428]

13. Shouldn't we be seeing a huge "Republican LatinX wave" if that were the case?

Little Marco and Teddy Cruz do not a wave make, in my eyes. I've been voting for 36 years, and most certainly have seen the shifting demographics over that time period.

[bullwinkle428]

14. Also, see this:

https://democraticunderground.com/100214384651

[PJMcK]

4. Hey, Reince!

You wrote that report then a few years later you went to work for Trump?!

You're a bigger fool than even Trump. He used you, turned you inside out then disposed of you.

Loser.

[Aussie105]

5. The GOP isn't very good at math.

Add to that the feeling they all have that they are Born to Power, and it is their God given right to rule forever, there is only one solution:

They need to be put to the sword.

Figuratively speaking, of course.

Too bad, so sad! Not really, high time actually.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

6. It is likely that the GOP will simply adjust their propaganda machine.

Fascist Oligarch eXtremists will rush to reprogram.

[Sherman A1]

7. republicans and Math

Just don’t seem appropriate in the same sentence unless it is figuring out how much to loot from the treasury.

[calimary]

8. They're going to have to change their POLICIES if they want to

demonstrate that they care about those groups too. Words and platitudes won’t cut it.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

9. I don't presume the future will be a projection...

... of current voting patterns. Hispanics might become a major voting bloc for Republicans in the future for all I know.


Survival of civilization is mostly on my mind for now.

[bucolic_frolic]

10. GOP sells financial dreams, Dems sell community

If we make the tax system more progressive to promote economic equality and justice, and breakup monopolies, common folks will stand a chance.

We've let Republicans have free reign to feed egos and narcissism. You - every one of you - can be a millioinaire with a golf course, a retirement home in a gated community, travel. All you have to do is vote Republican. When they don't get it they're angry, so Republicans court their anger.

We need to level the playing field.