ALERT: 538 includes anti-trans national push poll, dropping Biden's avg. to +8.5%

[Fiendish Thingy]

I was quite shocked to find that 538 had included a national poll of 3500 LV’s from Spry Strategies showing Biden +2% .

I’ve never heard of Spry Strategies, so I clicked through to the data page and found this:

A new poll conducted by Spry Strategies on behalf of Women’s Liberation Front found that a majority of likely 2020 voters disagree with policies related to “gender identity,” such as those included in the proposed Equality Act, that would remove protections for women in single-sex spaces such as prisons, shelters, and sports. The results are based on a national sample of 3,500 likely voters and include detailed representation across regions, ethnicity, sex, and political affiliation. Black and Hispanic voters are more likely to support protections for single-sex spaces, especially on issues such as prison and homelessness which disproportionately impact communities of color.



Key Results

Voters overwhelmingly disapprove of policies that allow the placement of male sexual offenders or domestic abusers in women’s prisons, with only seven percent of voters supporting such policies. Two out of every three likely voters (66.93 percent) state that they “strongly disagree” with such policies, including a majority of liberal voters who disagree with such policies.

The poll also revealed cross-partisan disapproval of “gender identity” based policies, such as those impacting single-sex sports. The majority of voters of all parties (66.96 percent) state that men or boys who identify as transgender should not be permitted to compete in women and girls’ athletics.

A majority of voters also disagree with allowing men who identify as transgender in women’s changing rooms (56.86 percent) and homeless shelters (53.19 percent).

Source:
https://www.womensliberationfront.org/news/national-poll-support-for-womens-spaces

What’s next? A Proud Boys poll on racially separate restrooms that includes presidential preferences?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

1. Yikes

WTF?!

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Indeed, WTAF? Nt

[lagomorph777]

2. I had been thinking 538 was the careful one; RCP is the RWNJ one.

Maybe I was deluding myself.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. The only possible rationalization I can conjur:

Spry Strategies must have had some previous record to justify inclusion, but this poll, sponsored by the so-called “Women’s Liberation Front”, used Spry as a Front for their obvious push poll.

[octoberlib]

10. G.Elliott Morris has written and tweeted about 538's A ratings on some polls that shouldn't

be rated that high because of their sketchy methodologies, like the Emerson College poll. Morris is The Economist's data analyst .


https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

[lagomorph777]

20. Maybe the Economist needs to be my go-to. Thanks!

[calguy]

4. The lower his margins are the more motivated voters should be

6 days out and 70 millions votes cast, I don't see how this affects anything.

[Roland99]

5. the Susquehannah poll from amgreatness (right-wing propaganda site) is bringing RealClearPolitics dn

[octoberlib]

11. RCP includes polls from Trump's Super Pac.

Link to tweet

?s=20

[cbdo2007]

7. This poll actually looks great for Biden based on the demographic

43% identify as "Conservative" and only 27% as Liberal. The remainder - 30% identify as "Moderate" yet almost all of these people must be the ones going for Biden as 46% overall went for Trump.

This tells me that it is still really on Trumps base that he is appealing to, but there are a ton of people who are probably *mostly* conservative but identify as moderate that are going for Biden in very large numbers.

Don't let it bring you down, it doesn't matter in the long run and it is weird 538 is including it here, but the actual poll results are very strongly favoring Biden even in a group he normally wouldn't be ahead with.

[beachbumbob]

8. Who the fuck cares at this point what 528 or any pollster does?

[The Magistrate]

9. Hear Hear, Sir

All bets are down, and the horses are coming round the turn....

[Takket]

12. Quick! Someone find me a poll that makes this look like a horse race!!!

Next will be the poll of which bowl of kibble the dogs at the shelter ate out of. Drumpf +15%!!!!

[Stallion]

13. Yeah I Noticed that Too-I opened the link and they've got About 4 Anti-Trans Questions at the Top

WTF I doubt many people would want to continue with this pollster. They need to take that poll down. Just astonishing

I'm glad you brought this to the attention of the board-I should have but just was too disgusted

[MizLibby]

14. GOP poll claims Trump is winning -- after bizarrely expecting 91 percent of 2020 voters to be over 55

This is from a year ago

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/06/gop-poll-claims-trump-is-winning-after-bizarrely-expecting-91-percent-of-2020-voters-to-be-over-55/

[jcgoldie]

15. You do realize that 538 includes all polls...

...then weights them according to their reliability and house bias before including them in their average?

And secondly that the national spread has a relatively minor effect on their calculation of odds of winning the election at this point?

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. Not true at all- 538 has banned numerous polling houses for poor practices

And the national spread has a significant impact on their model’s projections- a popular vote margin above +7% gives 99% odds of winning the EC. By contrast, Clinton’s 2-3% projected national margin gave only 48-50% odds of winning the EC in 2016.

[jcgoldie]

17. correlation does not imply causation..

Of course a rising tide lifts all boats but the odds of winning aren't changing drastically because of national polling and that average is not changing drastically due to a lightly weighted poll with a GOP bias.

[Fiendish Thingy]

21. This is not simply correlation, it's basic math

If Biden indeed wins the popular vote by 7+%, it’s nearly mathematically impossible for Trump to get enough votes to win the EC, unless there is 90% turnout with tens of millions of Dem votes thrown out.

Projected turnout is 154 million; with his current national average margin, that means Biden will win the popular vote by 12-15 million.votes. Hillary won the 2016 popular vote by 3 million. You tell me how Trump, who barely won three Rust Belt states by 77,000 votes, is going to make up a 15 million vote deficit in must-win states that he is behind by 5-10 points?

[jcgoldie]

22. You are missing the point

Of course if you get more votes you are more likely to win everywhere. There is a strong correlation between how many votes you win by nationally and how many states you win. But 538's election model does not weight that national percentage highly because it doesn't drive the electoral college, state results do. So what difference does it make if they include a lightly weighted poll in their national average when this hardly impacts the winning percentages that they calculate?

[Fiendish Thingy]

23. outlier polls in the final week are deliberately crafted to create a false perception of tightening

[Tommymac]

24. The Right needs these type polls to be legitimatized so they can justify election theft.

538 is playing right into those hands.

Shame on 538 and shame on Nate Silver.

[NRaleighLiberal]

18. Economist just moved to 97% chance for Joe, 356 EVs, same as Wang.

538 has 341 EV, 88% for Joe.

Inclusion of some outliers brings it down a bit.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214378397

[Johnny2X2X]

19. Silver includes some outliers

I am not worried about it at all, including these outliers (Spry and Rasmussen) makes the poll average more conservative. 8.5 points means a landslide.

[Tommymac]

25. At this point it is more about legitimacy then numbers. The Right needs the MSM to be complicit.

538 is playing a dangerous game whose result could be the loss of The US Constitution.

These right wing polls need legitimacy. And the MSM is playing right along.

Again. And again. And again. Year after year after year.

Joe needs to break up the Big Media Cartels and restore the Fairness Doctrine. Or the Republic is doomed.

VOTE VOTE VOTE! It's our only weapon, but it is the Ultimate Weapon.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

26. That's foolish. You pick the one right tool.

Heard that in a movie.

For me, that's the highly-rated polls and not this kind of garbage.