New Battleground States poll (Univision): Biden +3 FL, +5 PA, +5 AZ, -3 TX

[brooklynite]

Donald Trump and Joe Biden are only separated by a slight margin (49% for the president and 46% for the Democrat) among registered voters in Texas, according to the poll carried out with the collaboration of the University of Houston and conducted between October 17 and 25. The difference falls within the margin of error, making it a virtual tie.

In Florida, Biden leads Trump by only three points (49% to 46%), a difference that is within the poll’s margin of error (3.5%). In Arizona and Pennsylvania, Biden's advantage is five points (50% to 45%).

https://www.univision.com/univision-news/politics/no-clear-front-runner-in-texas-or-florida-according-to-latest-univision-news-poll

[beachbumbob]

1. The good thing about all these polls is underestimate of the under

30 yr old vote.

[vercetti2021]

2. Maybe that's why Joe isn't coming to Texas

I guess they see it as not obtainable. Least not this cycle anyway

[LisaL]

3. I have no doubt that's it.

Campaigns do their own internal polls and those probably don't show Joe winning TX as of yet.

[vercetti2021]

8. Oh well

If we can win the statehouse. I'll call it a win. Gotta start at state level first

[BGBD]

4. No

Its that they don't have good reason to go there electorally. No real reason to spend time in Texas a week out of an election thats likely to be decided in the upper Midwest and PA.

Texas is certainly winnable right now, but if Biden wins it he has likely already won enough other states to get to 270.

Just run ads and get the message out, but don't send the candidates there this close to the end.

GA, NC, and AZ are better insurance policies since we lead there already

[kevink077]

5. Exactly

It would be nice to win but time is so valuable to go after a state with low odds.

[Dem2]

6. Agreed

Let's just win, Texas is gravy and we talked about TX last cycle. Wasn't a good idea then either.

[TheRealNorth]

12. I agree

GA also makes some sense in order to help boost the Dems running for Senate (Ossoff and Warnock) .

But the safest bet is PA, MI, and WI. We have governors there that could oppose any attempt to mess with the electoral college votes.

[Amishman]

7. Turnout in TX looks to be ultra high this cycle, which actually might hurt us there

I know the conventional logic is we benefit from high turnout, but in places where there is a republican voter registration advantage, the higher the turnout the more things will 'run home' to that underlying landscape

[Marius25]

10. Kamala is coming to Texas

And Texas is very hard to poll with this level of turnout.

They wouldn't be sending Kamala to Texas if internals weren't good.

[nycbos]

11. I thought he was doing a bus tour

[Sherman A1]

9. Excellent