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Baclava

(12,047 posts)
1. Here and gone before you know it, TS force winds for Atlanta, in 12 hrs will be in Carolinas!
Wed Oct 28, 2020, 03:16 PM
Oct 2020

Then forecast to tangle up with the winter storm and dump a ft of snow around NYC on Fri!

misanthrope

(9,630 posts)
2. Hold your horses on that expectation
Wed Oct 28, 2020, 03:27 PM
Oct 2020

It has followed all the forecast models pretty well. The water at the shelf it is about to encounter is cooler and there is a strong dry, cold front to its immediate west -- the temperature at stations on the TX/LA border are already down in the mid 60s -- that will provide shear.

The issue is its forward speed. At 20 mph, it's moving faster than average so it won't provide as much time to weaken before landfall.

We've got our fingers and toes crossed here in Mobile because we're due to catch some bad winds from this. I'm expecting us to be without power for four days or so afterward, matching what we experienced last month with Sally.

There's another wave developing east of Nicaragua now, too. Only has a 20 percent chance of developing into a storm but we'll see.

Sooner or later, the proliferate climate change deniers in this area will change their minds, or die in denial.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
3. Eyewall just a couple hours from NOLA, taking aim right at them, Cat 2, 110 mph, moving NNE at 22
Wed Oct 28, 2020, 03:54 PM
Oct 2020

misanthrope

(9,630 posts)
4. Looking at current radar for the last hour
Wed Oct 28, 2020, 04:57 PM
Oct 2020

Zeta is still moving relatively NNE, with the eyewall making landfall any time now. It also shows the western and southern side of the storm weakening appreciably. If you look at virtual wind displays, it's easy to see why: all that cold, dry air getting sucked in from the front to its west.

Too bad Zeta's forward motion wasn't a little bit slower or the cold air/cooler water could have had a greater effect.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=30.681&lon=-88.089

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
5. Latest NHC advisory, Zeta still a strong Cat 2, 110 mph, moving NNE at 24 mph, streaking along now!
Wed Oct 28, 2020, 05:00 PM
Oct 2020

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