A+ rated ABC poll has Biden up by 17 points in Wisconsin!
Once in a blue moon, you see a poll that makes you blink twice to make sure you’re not seeing things. This morning’s ABC News/The Washington Post survey of Wisconsin was just such a poll. It showed Joe Biden 17 points (not a typo) ahead of President Trump, 57 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. To put it mildly, this is a stunning margin in what is supposed to be one of the most competitive swing states in the country — a place that Trump carried by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.
And this is not an easy poll to disregard. ABC News/Washington Post adheres to what we consider the gold-standard methodology (meaning they use live phone interviewers, call cell phones as well as landlines and participate in the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s Transparency Initiative or the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research archive) and earns an A+ grade in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings database.1 The poll single-handedly increased Biden’s lead in our polling average of Wisconsin from 7.1 points to 9.0 points, and it is currently the most influential poll in our forecast of Wisconsin, where Biden’s chances of winning the state have reached a new high as a result — 93 in 100.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-that-new-wisconsin-poll-that-has-biden-way-ahead/
https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a52020StateBattlegrounds-MIWI.pdf
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Here's the interactive map: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/WI.html
They have almost 80% of their mailed ballots returned as of today 10/28/20. This number favors the Democratic voters, but it could all change by next Tuesday. The other important statistic is the high Covid infection rate, Wisconsin is a recent hot spot right now.
How many people will take the risk of voting in person on Tuesday? Maybe the Repukes will say "f*** it" and stay home on Tuesday. Who knows? We shall see.
... so we have to guess (based on state statistics) until they've been opened and cast next week. Meanwhile they're hoping for a big turnout at the polls on Tuesday, but who knows? Bad weather can be a factor, also bad Covid numbers.
I guess my point is that the high percentage of returned ballots (from the mailed out group) should be a good sign for the Democrats.
