KSTP/SurveyUSA: Biden narrowly leading Minnesota in election's home stretch

[Drunken Irishman]

https://kstp.com/politics/kstp-surveyusa-poll-shows-biden-still-leading-minnesota-but-race-tightens-election-2020/5908560/?cat=1

Biden leads 47-42. Their poll last week had Biden leading 48-42, so, this is a one-point decrease. The lead is within the MOE (4.6) of the poll.

Tina Smith, who was tied with Jason Lewis in the last poll, now leads by three.

This looks to be an outlier for Minnesota to be honest.

In their final polls from 2016 and 2012, they both had Hillary and Obama winning the state by 11 points - which did not happen.

[SlogginThroughIt]

1. KSTP is the conservative channel

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Like I said, their final polls from the last two presidential elections overestimated the Democrats.

In 2012 and 2016, Obama and Hillary led by 11 points in the final poll.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

9. Yup. Flagship station of Hubbard Broadcasting, whose chairman and CEO,

Stanley Hubbard, is a billionaire who gives big bucks to GOPers and Libertarians. In 2016 he claimed he didn't like Trump but gave his PAC a lot of money anyhow, and he continues to support Trump because he likes his policies.

[FloridaBlues]

2. Haven't seen a lot of pollling there perhaps it tightened?

[rockfordfile]

3. That's why trump's in Minnesota

[YessirAtsaFact]

5. 538 Poll Average - Biden by 8%

nm

[book_worm]

6. This really is no change from their previous poll

A five or six point lead is not "narrow."

[Drunken Irishman]

8. I think any time a poll is within the MOE, they'll say it's narrow.

The MOE is essentially five-points in this one.

[book_worm]

15. That's why we should just add this one to the mix of polls

and the fact is if it was really close Trump would be leading from time to time in MN or at least neck and neck but they all are between 5-7 points for Biden.

[TwilightZone]

11. The lead is barely larger than the MOE.

That probably qualifies as narrow. It's way closer than I'd like, but this is the same state where a chunk of it elected Michele Bachmann repeatedly.

[Mister Ed]

18. A gerrymandered chunk. A gerrymandered chunk that had my house in it.

Please, no salt in that painful wound...

[TwilightZone]

20. Rural Minnesota isn't much different from rural SD or ND politically.

The GOP isn't responsible for the current districts in MN, curiously enough. Redistricting in Minnesota was last done by a judicial panel in 2012. The GOP tried to redistrict in 2010, but Dayton vetoed their plan and it was sent to a judicial panel. Same thing happened in 2002 after the legislature couldn't agree in 2000.

https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Minnesota#Redistricting_after_the_2010_census

[Mister Ed]

22. The district that Bachmann won in '06, '08, and 2010...

...had a shape that anyone familiar with the area could tell at a glance was drawn to be a safe Republican district, encompassing all of St. Cloud and surrounding area in central Minnesota, then arcing through the northern suburbs and exurbs of the Twin Cities, and finally down into Stillwater and Woodbury.



Bachmann was not at all representative of Minnesota as a whole. She never ran for any statewide office, and never, ever could have gained statewide office. It pains me greatly that people associate her with my home state, and I'm awfully touchy about it, as anyone can surely tell.

Again I say: count on us. Minnesota's electoral votes are not going to Donald Trump. Period.

[TwilightZone]

23. "Bachmann was not at all representative of Minnesota as a whole"

She was a member of the House. She wasn't supposed to be representative of the entire state. She was supposed to represent her district. That they were dumb enough to keep electing her means that she was probably pretty representative of them, sadly.

That was my point. Gerrymandered or not (and, as I pointed out, it was not gerrymandered by the GOP legislature), they elected her. That says nothing good about her constituents. It also indicates that they're clearly not a bunch of liberals.

I think Trump wins MN as well, but let's not pretend that the state is a monolithic blue stronghold.

[Proud liberal 80]

7. Scary

Would suck for Biden to win back Michigan and Wisconsin just to lose Minnesota

[WhiskeyGrinder]

10. He will not lose Minnesota.

[book_worm]

12. Exactly.

[LisaL]

13. Five points isn't narrow if accurate.

NT

[Drunken Irishman]

16. If accurate - with their MOE, it's within the five-points.

But I suspect Biden leads 5-7 points there.

[unc70]

14. Their recent NC poll looks strange

It seems to show things tightening for both Biden and Cunningham. They are an outlier. But more than that, their internals don't look quite right. Even allowing for rounding, the various cross tabs don't quite add up with each other. A percent or two here and there. Without the raw numbers I can't know absolutely, but I am really good at this. Don't have the time to dig into it further.

BTW the footnotes on their methodology is really "squishy".

[Blaukraut]

17. Polls where Biden has a narrow lead but is below 50% make me nervous n/t

[Mister Ed]

19. Count on Minnesota.

Our electoral votes didn't go to Reagan.
Our electoral votes didn't go to GHW Bush.
Our electoral votes didn't go to W.
Our electoral votes didn't go to Trump 2016.

Our electoral votes won't go to Trump 2020.

[Fiendish Thingy]

21. Outliers gonna lie- 538 odds 93/7 Biden; avg. margin: Biden +8.1% nt