Ralston: Trump doing better with rurals in Nevada than '16, but...

[book_worm]

It may not matter.

Per Ralston:

First, the Republicans are up in the rurals by 30,000 ballots and nearly 28 percentage points with about half the vote in. Trump won rural Nevada by nearly 58,000 votes in 2016. I have said it could be as much as 70,000 this cycle. I may have underestimated it.

And even though the percentage margins are huge, consider: If one million voters turn out in Clark County — and this seems about right — and Biden wins Clark by 10 points (Clinton won it by almost 11), that's 100,000 votes. That easily offsets the rural win, even if it is 80,000, and that would mean Trump would need to win Washoe by 20,000 votes to have a chance. That is highly unlikely if not impossible — Clinton won Washoe by 3,000 votes and Biden may do better. He surely will not do that much worse unless something very strange is happening. (The Democrats have a 5,000-ballot lead in Washoe right now.)

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

[rockfordfile]

1. Interesting

[LisaL]

2. Why is Trump doing better with rurals in NV?

This blog is making me nervous.

[qazplm135]

4. because his people will go all out to save him

expect no less.

[hatrack]

6. Four years of libtard-owning, that's why . . .

So when their lips get cyanotic, and their lungs go all necrotic, they'll still be able to savor the exquisite pleasure of the hate-licensing their Lord and Master provided.

[Seasider]

14. Rural tend to have high Mormon population who predominantly vote Republican.

We also have to remember that it wasn’t so long ago, Nevada was a reliable red state just like New Mexico and Colorado used to be.

[Wellstone ruled]

16. That is the real reason.

With the dynamics of Population Shifts,this most likely will be the last major vote total of that size for Rural Nevada. Massive influx of California newbie's are changing our purple to dark Blue. And as the Mines continue to peter out in the Rural areas,the Population shift is to the two major Cities. Very very few you folks in Rural Nevada and that trend will only accelerate.

[Jamesyu]

3. Good depends on how much rural vote for Trump

And I don’t think 100% of that vote going to Trump.

[dawg day]

5. The people he scorns most are the ones who love him the most

Rural people, poor people, working people-- he thinks they're rubes and losers and wants to take away their education, SS, and health insurance.

And they love him for it.

[bdamomma]

8. they are

brainwashed. If he told them to drink the kool aid, they would do it.

He is their cult leader.

[42bambi]

15. Trumps is using them - they either don't know or know but don't care. nt

[book_worm]

7. I think there is also a lot of mail ballots that have not yet been counted in NV

And Biden has been winning those by huge margins.

[BainsBane]

10. Those Republican numbers

assume they are all voting for Trump. That may not be the case.

[Jamesyu]

11. Ralston also said in 2016 Trump was going to lose Nevada in a landslide, he only lost by 2.5

to Clinton. So I take what he says with a grain of salt to hype his blog.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. He bases everything on turnout not preference

In 2016 Ralston underestimated rural percentages toward Trump, just like Steve Schale in Florida and all the analysts in midwestern states. Now the variable is whether Biden can grab greater percentage of the white vote to offset the even higher level of GOP rural turnout

[NameAlreadyTaken]

12. We live in Esmeralda County,

and it's about 80% Trump here. But the populations of rural Nevada counties are so small that they are easily overwhelmed by Clark County (Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno). Nevada as a whole went for Hillary, though just barely. All statewide elective offices are currently held by Democrats. Nevada was traditionally a Republican state, but migration from California has made the difference.

[RockRaven]

13. This general phenomenon is worth keeping in mind when you see the high voter turnout in swing

states or places like TX which are being cast as now potentially competitive...

It is reasonable to assume that some of the higher voter turnout is highly motivated right wing idiots who have spent five years marinating in proTrump propaganda from FUX and RW talk radio instead of merely the 1 year of indoctrination the last time around.