Nate Silver: We Have A Lot Of New Polls But There's Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening

[brooklynite]

538

After a surprisingly sluggish weekend for polling, the floodgates have opened, with a mix of high-quality polls, low-quality polls and pretty much everything in between. And although there are some outliers in both directions, they tell a fairly consistent story, overall: A steady race nationally, perhaps with some gains for Joe Biden in the Midwest.

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On average, Biden leads by 9 percentage points using a simple average of post-debate national polls, which matches his 9 point lead in our fancy-schmancy official FiveThirtyEight national average.

It’s a bit of a weird mix of polls, though, with more quantity than quality. The only two fully live-caller national polls in here are from CNN and CNBC/Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies, which show Biden leading by 12 points and 11 points, respectively. On the one hand, the trendlines aren’t so bad for Trump in those live-caller polls. He trailed by 16 points in CNN’s previous national poll, and by 9 points in the past Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies poll (or by 11 if you prefer to compare it to the prior NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll, which uses the same polling team).

On the other hand, the higher-quality national polls are showing worse results for Trump than the lower quality polls, which is rarely a good sign. More highly-rated online firms, such as YouGov, Morning Consult, and Ipsos, show Trump trailing by margins ranging from 9 to 12 points.

[coti]

1. Let's finish this out. nt