If you come across a CITIZEN DATA poll of TX and TX-SEN, pass it by

[brooklynite]

The results don't even meet the threshold qualification for an "outlier" poll.

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Will do

Just saw them, all of their polls seem fine and in line with the norm, save for Texas. No way is Biden up 10 in TX. Must have been a glitch.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Hmm

Reading their methods, sample size is good. Half phone and half online follows the methods of most reputable pollsters. Dems vs Rep is a little weighted to Dems, but not ridiculous.

I'd be interested to hear what Nate Silver would say about them.

https://github.com/GetCitizenData/VoteByMail/blob/master/VoteByMail-Texas/Modeling/October/Texas%20VBM%20Toplines%2010_23_20.pdf

[brooklynite]

3. 538 doesn't even give them a rating

[Johnny2X2X]

5. That doesn't mean much

538 doesn't rate a ton of pollsters who have valid methods and data. It doesn't mean they're a D-, it just means that they haven't produced enough polls for 538 to take the time to examine their methods well enough to rate them.

538 is including them with a very low weight. 538 bans totally bunk polls and will not include those at all. A pollster like this has met their minimum standards to be included.

Biden is not up 10 in TX though! He could be up 5 though. And the rest of this firm's polls look in line with what we're seeing.

[chuckperth]

4. Not rated

538 does not even have them rated.....

[flamin lib]

6. Everything about the poll looks legit to me.

Keep in mind this is early voting and it is 2020 after all so no rules apply.

Democrats vote early by a large margin. At this point more of the black community has voted than in all of 2016. This is the largest turnout in memory for the state and turnout usually means a high Democratic vote.

So, yeah, I can see this result as of today with the heavy R vote on Nov 3 narrowing the margin to within the MOE.