5- FIVE - more days....My Daily Home Stretch Election Polling Update. We are so close! all good news

[NRaleighLiberal]

Last edited Thu Oct 29, 2020, 11:16 PM - Edit history (9)

Five more days and I will retire this thing, but it's been fun to document the run up to the election and demonstrate how consistent the polling remains.

538 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Oct 12 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote.
Oct 13 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% popular vote
Oct 14 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 16 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 17 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 348 EVs, 53.6% of popular vote.
Oct 20 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 21 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 23 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote.
Oct 24 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 25 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 26 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 344 EVs, 53.3% of popular vote
Oct 27 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 344 EVs, 53.3% of popular vote
Oct 28 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote
today - Oct 29 - Joe 89/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote

Essentially rock steady for 18 days - a nice little tick up today.

Another important number - Trump approve today is 43, disapprove 53 - a near 10% (I know...how can that many approve???)

Sam Wang Princeton - https://election.princeton.edu/

Oct 12 - Joe metamargin +6.3, estimate 369 EVs.
Oct 13 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 359 EVs
Oct 14 - Joe metamargin +6.0, est 358 EVs
Oct 15 - Joe metamargin +6.1, est 357 EVs
Oct 16 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 351 EVs
Oct 17 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 353 EVs
Oct 18 - Joe metamargin +5.8, est 356 EVs
Oct 19 - Joe metamargin +5.7, est 351 EVs
Oct 20 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 356 EVs
Oct 21 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 357 EVs
Oct 22 - Joe metamargin +5.6, est 362 EVs
Oct 23 - Joe metamagin +5.5, est 358 EVs
Oct 24 - Joe metamargin +5.5, est 357 EVs
Oct 25 - Joe metamargin +5.4, 360 EVs
Oct 26 - Joe metamargin +5.6, 354 EVs
Oct 27 - Joe metamargin +5.9, 356 EVs
Oct 28 - Joe metamargin +5.8, 350 EVs
today - Oct 29 - Joe metamargin +5.8, 356 EVs

essentially rock steady for 18 days, with the metamargin building back up. Good trend.

The Economist - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

Oct 12 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, currently at 54.2% of popular vote
Oct 13 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, currently at 54.3% of popular vote.
Oct 14 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.3% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54% of popular vote.
Oct 16 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 17 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 20 - Joe 93/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 21 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 54% of the popular vote
Oct 23 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.1% of the popular vote
Oct 24 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 340 EVs, 53.9% of the popular vote
Oct 25 - Joe 94/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.5% of the popular vote
Oct 26 - Joe 95/100 chance of winning, 352 EVs, 54.5% of the popular vote
Oct 27 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 356 EVs, 54.4% of the popular vote
Oct 28 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 356 EVs, 54.4% of the popular vote
today - Oct 29 - Joe 95/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote

election day estimate Joe 54.2%

Steady, with a recent slight positive trajectory holding, on day 18.

For the 18th day in a row, no significant sign at all of race tightening; in fact, teeny signs of improvement. Enjoy the rest of your Thursday....check back tonight to see what's changed!

The current electoral vote totals from the three sites are 347, 356 and 350. Very consistent.

Bonus addition - where the election was in 2016 on 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

5 days before the election in 2016 was Nov 4. Hillary was at 64% chance, 290 EVs, 48 to 45 percent popular vote, 3 point separation - and this was 7 days after the Comey letter surfaced - the full effect is showing.. Joe has 56 more EVs, 25 percent higher chance, and 53 vs 48 percent popular vote - 5 point separation, with Joe well over 50 percent - something Hillary never reached.

Economist key state margins currently are PA +6, FL +3, WI +8, MI +8, NC +2, MN +9, AZ +3, NV +7, NH +9, Iowa -1, GA +1, OH -1 and TX -3.

Less than one Week! Get active, get busy! Get out the vote, volunteer, phone bank.....

[dalton99a]

1. Kick

[USALiberal]

2. Thank you! Great trend! nt

[Tribetime]

3. Excellent news thanks for all you posts on this 👍

[Dem2]

4. Thanks for the update

Helps lower my anxiety a tad.

[Sherman A1]

5. I like those numbers from the Economist

They look great!

[getagrip_already]

6. Political wire has an interesting comparrison up between favorability and results...

https://politicalwire.com/2020/10/29/trumps-job-approval-may-hint-at-outcome/

Basically it goes back to previous elections and observes a tight correlation between a sitting presidents favorability rating and their election results in a mid term election.

That predicts trump will only reach the low 40's in popular vote nationally.

Interesting......

[JudyM]

16. Cook Political Report affirmed that, too. Encouraging!

[ananda]

7. Great news! I think this pretty much confirms that..

.. most people made up their minds early on and
nothing is going to change that.

Yay

[BobTheSubgenius]

8. In any normal democracy, those numbers should be more like this.

JB's chance of winning 99.75

Drumpf's chance of winning .05

Undecided .1

Brain dead .1

And those are pretty generous.

[nolabear]

9. Hopeful KnR

[Star-Thrower]

10. Going to vote

in person, straight Dem, as always. Still believe that Trump will win sorry to say but I have no confidence in this election. Too many ways to twist results.

[Sugarcoated]

11. Gonna be a tough night for you

Crooked Donnie's going to get schlonged

[Star-Thrower]

12. Yeah but

I'll do what I did iin the last election, not watch the results, I turned off the tv and didn't watch the news for a half of the next day, just knowing in my gut that trump won.

[NRaleighLiberal]

13. slight tweaks for the night time kick

[RoccoRyg]

14. I've heard it said...

In 2016, federal and state polls had Hillary up by a lot, but local polls showed some worrying data. Turns out, the local polls got it right.

This time, however, the local polls are showing Biden in the lead in all the vital areas. Great news for him and down-ticket Democrats.

[NRaleighLiberal]

15. Off to bed - the data is now fixed for today. didn't move much - a few tiny tweaks.

Hoping Joe gets the 90th blue ball on 538 tomorrow - that one has been stubborn.
Also hoping we get a bounce back to 96 (or better) on Economist.

Not sure how much polling goes on over the weekend - thinking tomorrow and Monday should provide the most info.