Stuart Stevens, who worked on every GOP presidential campaign from Dole to Romney, on Florida...

[Drunken Irishman]

Link to tweet

[Sogo]

1. The key will be turnout.

Biden 2020!!

[Amishman]

12. Turnout overall will be very high, the key is how independents vote

Thankfully polls are looking very good on that subject all over.

For those who doubt me on the importance of independents, and stress Dem turnout as more critical, swaying independents in much more efficient.

Lets say we have 10 democrats, 10 indies, and 10 pubs.

dems all vote dem, pubs all vote pub, and the indies split.

We get 15-15.

Pubs convince one indie to switch. 16-14. We need to turn out two additional democrats to offset one indie who flips.

Based on polling, this works in our favor this year and Biden is polling very well with independents all over.

[michael811]

14. more independent voters are voting by mail versus in person

Looks like a 300,000 difference in vote by mail versus in person for those with no party affiliation so far. I imagine that those who vote by mail probably are more likely to support Biden.

[Cha]

13. Yes.. Ground Game!

[peggysue2]

2. Stuart Stevens as most people know at this point is . . .

A member of the Lincoln Project and author of a scathing indictment of the Republican Party, as in the GOP is done and everything they claimed to hold dear was a lie.

In any case, tonight the LP's data people will be giving their last updates on the state of the race. Mike Madrid is their lead data guy, so if you want to hear their take on the current polling and district data points, tune in to LPTV. Usually runs around 9 pm on YouTube. Should be interesting!

[SunSeeker]

3. BUT YOU STILL HAVE TO VOTE!!

[wilson2792]

4. I don't want to hear it.

I don't want to hear it. Please act as if we are down by 20 point. Talk to me about this after November 3rd. Go out and VOTE. I don't want to feel what I felt in 2016.

[Wanderlust988]

5. If I acted like we were 20 points down, I'd probably not vote

And find myself something more interesting to do on election day. I'm not sure why people think being down double digits is supposed to motivate you to vote. It's much more likely to depress the vote, not motivate. I'm more motivated to vote for a winner and be on the winning side of history.

[obamanut2012]

9. 100% this

[Skittles]

15. I'm not sure why hearing ANY stats would influence whether or not I voted

WTF

[Wednesdays]

16. How would you act if we were TWO percent down?

The poster's point was rhetorical, not to be taken literally. I'm sure a lot of sports teams exhort their teams with similar oratory: "Even when we're ahead, don't let up on the gas pedal; battle as though we're several points behind!"

[NoMoreRepugs]

6. THIS. Vote early and make the RePutinicans stay home and whine on election day cuz

early tabulations make it look like a landslide for JB and Kamala.

[SayItLoud]

7. But it's Flori-Duh ; a sunny place for shady people.

Not all but a lot.

[NightWatcher]

8. As a Florida Man, I'm stealing that description.

I am so curious as to what insanity we'll roll out on Election Day.

[czarjak]

10. "It was all a lie" though, Stu! Remember? But thanks so much for your service.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. The key will be Biden's net among party crossover, and independents

After sampling the crosstabs of countless swing state polls, there is going to be greater party disloyalty in Florida than other swing states. Most polls including Univision yesterday have Biden and Trump losing 8-10% range in Florida compared to 4-6% in other swing states.

I'd like to see Biden get a 2% net edge in crossover. With independents the Univision general poll had Biden leading 47-42 with 5% elsewhere and 6% undecided. Difficult to believe 5% will go third party. I'm hoping for at least an 8% net toward Biden among Florida independents. Trump's approval rating in the Univision poll was 41/59 among independents in Florida, and that's fairly standard to other polls. Independents elsewhere are in the mid to high 30s with Trump approval but higher in Florida.

The above is needed assuming the GOP has several percentage points greater turnout than Democrats. That is standard in Florida. The other side simply has a great operation here.