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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCharlie Cook: Question seems to be whether we'll see a "skinny" Biden win or a landslide
Link to tweet
Don't expect a contested election
The cone of uncertainty has narrowed considerably. Now, the question seems to be whether we'll see a "skinny" Biden win or a landslide.
Joe Bidens path to 270 electoral votes seems pretty straightforward: Hold all 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) that Hillary Clinton carried four years ago, which total 232 electoral votes, just 38 short of the majority threshold of 270. Then win each of the three states that Clinton lost by eight-tenths of a point or less: Michigan (0.2 percentage points) Pennsylvania (0.7), and Wisconsin (0.8). That gives him 278 electoral votes, eight more than needed. Biden will likely also carry two congressional districts that eluded Clinton in 2016, Nebraskas 2nd District and Maines 2nd, giving him 280 electoral votes. That would represent a skinny Biden win.
A big Biden win would bring in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, and might also include one or two states from the next tier, mostly likely Georgia or Iowa, although dont count out Ohio or Texas. Generally speaking, Trump is underperforming his 2016 pace by 3 to 8 points, depending upon the state or district.
The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Bidens lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But thats a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent.
I believe his actual lead is more like 9 or 10 points, based on the higher-quality, live-telephone-interview national polls conducted since the first debate, as well as the gold standard of online polling, the Pew Research Centers mammoth poll of 11,929 voters released two weeks ago.
read more: https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/711037?unlock=SRT6SBVCJHPBFJTS
Charlie's still a DUer: https://upload.democraticunderground.com/?com=profile&uid=347244
I enjoyed reading a positive post in a sea of negativity.
underpants
(182,603 posts)crickets
(25,952 posts)MustLoveBeagles
(11,583 posts)jimlup
(7,968 posts)If it is a skinny result tRump will try to steal it.
jimlup
(7,968 posts)certainot
(9,090 posts)political mistake in history
it is just really stupid that city dwellers have no clue they're getting their asses kicked by a well-coordinated propaganda op like Voice of America turned back on us - Voice of Putin now...
elleng
(130,732 posts)Jamesyu
(259 posts)Too highly in their averages to rig it for Trump.
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)Awesome to see. He's a true gem.
Dem2
(8,166 posts)Rates right-leaning pollsters highly.
So shocking.
AmericanCanuck
(1,102 posts)No namby pamby skinny win.
Thekaspervote
(32,705 posts)blue neen
(12,319 posts)Sick of the naysayers.
JoeOtterbein
(7,699 posts)FakeNoose
(32,579 posts)... is that too greedy of me?
mahina
(17,616 posts)Nevilledog
(51,006 posts)BlueWavePsych
(2,635 posts)mahina
(17,616 posts)Ho ly cow.
Good article too and a welcome perspective.
bigtree
(85,975 posts)...wondering if he was okay (he was).
Is Charlie Cook ill?
That is some serious weight loss
https://upload.democraticunderground.com/100210321711#post6
Response to bigtree (Reply #20)
BannonsLiver This message was self-deleted by its author.
Skraxx
(2,967 posts)The conventional wisdom is "Will Biden's win be big enough to overcome Trump's cheating/whining/tyranny". And that's a good thing.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,548 posts)I also think Cook May be crafting a pre-emptive narrative to get in ahead of Trump/Fox trying to capitalize on a potential red mirage Election Night.