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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsInside the Democrats' New Plan to Flip Texas
Biden will win the major cities and suburbs. If Biden can cut his losses in rural Texas, Biden can flip Texas
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For years, Democratic orthodoxy has maintained that flipping Texas Democratic in statewide racesthis year for presidential candidate Joe Biden and Senate candidate MJ Hegar, most prominentalymeans increasing turnout in urban areas and swing suburbs. But that strategy alone hasnt worked yeteven as favorable demographic changes, especially in urban areas, suburbs, and now even exurbs, have put the state in play. Now, people like Horick and Logan are part of an effort by Democrats to broaden their strategy by targeting the most Republican areas of the state as well. If they can boost Democratic support in places like Odessa just slightly, then, together with the unprecedented early vote surge in cities, Democrats think they might finally get enough votes to flip the state. Its not about winning in these deep-red counties and districtsits about cutting into Republican margins, no matter how large.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton received just 28 percent of Ectors vote. In 2018, Beto ORourke did slightly better, earning just over 30 percent. Horicks goal this year is for Democratic statewide candidates to receive 35 percent of the vote in the county. She and other local organizers largely hope to do this by increasing turnout in Hispanic communities, as well as by convincing ORourke voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2016 to vote Democratic again. On the map on the wall, precincts colored in blue marked Hispanic neighborhoods estimated to be heavily Democratic. While only 35 percent of people voted in those precincts in 2018, Horick is hoping to push that number closer to 50 this cycle. Red stripes marked areas where voters cast ballots for Trump, in 2016, and then Beto ORourke.
That Saturday, wearing masks and walking at distance with others, Horick had kicked off in-person canvassing, leaving door hangers in blue neighborhoods. By the end of the weekend in Odessa, Horick and other volunteers would hand out over 2,000 voter registration cards. Meanwhile, around West Texas, other Democratic county chairs were beginning to organize in-person as wellsome independently and others in coordination with the state party, which, unlike in previous election cycles, is finally running ads in rural areas and sending more organizers there as well. For many in rural Texas, its the first time theyve seen this level of coordination run through the state party between local, state, and national races. That week, Logan and Horick had driven to Austin to pick up door hangers from the party. They would have liked to get them earlier and without the drive, they told me, but were happy to have the supply in the first place.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton received just 28 percent of Ectors vote. In 2018, Beto ORourke did slightly better, earning just over 30 percent. Horicks goal this year is for Democratic statewide candidates to receive 35 percent of the vote in the county. She and other local organizers largely hope to do this by increasing turnout in Hispanic communities, as well as by convincing ORourke voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2016 to vote Democratic again. On the map on the wall, precincts colored in blue marked Hispanic neighborhoods estimated to be heavily Democratic. While only 35 percent of people voted in those precincts in 2018, Horick is hoping to push that number closer to 50 this cycle. Red stripes marked areas where voters cast ballots for Trump, in 2016, and then Beto ORourke.
That Saturday, wearing masks and walking at distance with others, Horick had kicked off in-person canvassing, leaving door hangers in blue neighborhoods. By the end of the weekend in Odessa, Horick and other volunteers would hand out over 2,000 voter registration cards. Meanwhile, around West Texas, other Democratic county chairs were beginning to organize in-person as wellsome independently and others in coordination with the state party, which, unlike in previous election cycles, is finally running ads in rural areas and sending more organizers there as well. For many in rural Texas, its the first time theyve seen this level of coordination run through the state party between local, state, and national races. That week, Logan and Horick had driven to Austin to pick up door hangers from the party. They would have liked to get them earlier and without the drive, they told me, but were happy to have the supply in the first place.
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Inside the Democrats' New Plan to Flip Texas (Original Post)
Gothmog
Oct 2020
OP
NCjack
(10,279 posts)1. I give Beto credit for showing us how to flip Texas.
dalton99a
(81,468 posts)3. Beto's 2018 campaign was a watershed in Texas politics
Laelth
(32,017 posts)2. Plan? The Party doesn't NEED a plan.
Over 9 million Texans have ALREADY voted. There are two more days of early voting here, and then theres election day. These voters have their own plan, and its looking good for the blue team so far.
Blue Texas.
-Laelth
Gothmog
(145,168 posts)4. Texas could hit 12 million total votes
Michael Li used to have the best election law/redistricting blog in Texas but was hired by the Bennan Center. Michael makes the case for 12 million possible votes in Texas which means that no one has any idea what is going to happen
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