TGIF! Four - 4 - days to go. My Daily Home Stretch Election Polling Update. Updated 9 PM EST.

[NRaleighLiberal]

Last edited Fri Oct 30, 2020, 11:05 PM - Edit history (12)

At 10 PM, 538 finally has Joe at 90% chance!

Five more days and I will retire this thing, but it's been fun to document the run up to the election and demonstrate how consistent the polling remains.

538 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Oct 12 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote.
Oct 13 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% popular vote
Oct 14 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 16 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 17 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 348 EVs, 53.6% of popular vote.
Oct 20 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 21 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 23 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote.
Oct 24 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 25 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 26 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 344 EVs, 53.3% of popular vote
Oct 27 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 344 EVs, 53.3% of popular vote
Oct 28 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote
Oct 29 - Joe 89/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote
today - Oct 30 - Joe 90/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote

Essentially rock steady for 19 days - a nice little recent tick is holding- ball 90 seems poised to turn blue.

Another important number - Trump approve today is 43, disapprove 53 - a near 10% (I know...how can that many approve???)

Sam Wang Princeton - https://election.princeton.edu/

Oct 12 - Joe metamargin +6.3, estimate 369 EVs.
Oct 13 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 359 EVs
Oct 14 - Joe metamargin +6.0, est 358 EVs
Oct 15 - Joe metamargin +6.1, est 357 EVs
Oct 16 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 351 EVs
Oct 17 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 353 EVs
Oct 18 - Joe metamargin +5.8, est 356 EVs
Oct 19 - Joe metamargin +5.7, est 351 EVs
Oct 20 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 356 EVs
Oct 21 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 357 EVs
Oct 22 - Joe metamargin +5.6, est 362 EVs
Oct 23 - Joe metamagin +5.5, est 358 EVs
Oct 24 - Joe metamargin +5.5, est 357 EVs
Oct 25 - Joe metamargin +5.4, 360 EVs
Oct 26 - Joe metamargin +5.6, 354 EVs
Oct 27 - Joe metamargin +5.9, 356 EVs
Oct 28 - Joe metamargin +5.8, 350 EVs
Oct 29 - Joe metamargin +5.8, 356 EVs
today - Oct 30 - Joe metamargin +5.7, 353 EVs

essentially rock steady for 19 days, with the metamargin building back up. Good trend.

The Economist - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

Oct 12 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, currently at 54.2% of popular vote
Oct 13 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, currently at 54.3% of popular vote.
Oct 14 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.3% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54% of popular vote.
Oct 16 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 17 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 20 - Joe 93/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 21 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 54% of the popular vote
Oct 23 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.1% of the popular vote
Oct 24 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 340 EVs, 53.9% of the popular vote
Oct 25 - Joe 94/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.5% of the popular vote
Oct 26 - Joe 95/100 chance of winning, 352 EVs, 54.5% of the popular vote
Oct 27 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 356 EVs, 54.4% of the popular vote
Oct 28 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 356 EVs, 54.4% of the popular vote
Oct 29 - Joe 95/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
today - Oct 30 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote

election day estimate Joe 54.2%

Steady, and holding, on day 19.

For the 19th day in a row, no significant sign at all of race tightening; in fact, teeny signs of improvement. Enjoy the rest of your Friday....check back tonight to see what's changed!

The current electoral vote totals from the three sites are 347, 353 and 350. Very consistent.

Bonus addition - where the election was in 2016 on 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

4 days before the election in 2016 was Nov 5. Hillary was at 64% chance, 291 EVs, 48 to 45 percent popular vote, 3 point separation - and this was 8 days after the Comey letter surfaced - the full effect is showing.. Joe has 56 more EVs, 25 percent higher chance, and 53 vs 48 percent popular vote - 5 point separation, with Joe well over 50 percent - something Hillary never reached.

Economist key state margins currently are PA +6, FL +3, WI +8, MI +8, NC +2, MN +9, AZ +3, NV +6, NH +9, Iowa -1, GA +1, OH -1 and TX -3.

Half of a Week to go! Get active, get busy! Get out the vote, volunteer, phone bank.....

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. mid afternoon kick. data tweaked a tiny bit

[Kid Berwyn]

2. Knock him out, then lock him up!

Thank you, NRaleighLiberal! Very much appreciate the good works!

[Dem2]

3. :)

K&R

[NRaleighLiberal]

4. no changes needed - kicking for the last time tonight. Sleep well!

[Kaleva]

5. Really enjoy your daily posts!

[NRaleighLiberal]

6. thanks. I know they are pretty nerdy/geeky/dense with data

but I do enjoy data, numbers, looking at trends - and it helps alleviate my anxiety!

I would love to see 538 get as high as 95% Biden. I think we have what we have - we just need to get through the weekend and Monday - and see what Tuesday brings.

I am optimistic!