Texas looks like a real possibility.
Given that nearly 9 millions votes were cast and they expect only 1 or 2 millions more on election day, reaching 11 millions total.
If the democrats had the advantage during early voting (lots of young people voted, many first time voters. etc..) it will be very hard for Trump to make that up on election day.
for example, say it was 55-45 on early ballots and 9/11 =80 percent already voted then on election day, in order to reach 50% +1 vote, Joe Biden would only need
(0.5-0.8*0.55)/(1-0.8)=27.5 percent to make it above 50 percent and win.
Even with 51/49 early vote , Biden would only need 45 % on election day.
Roughly, each early vote is worth 4 times the nov 3rd vote (if early vote proportion is 80 %).
= new reply since forum marked as read
I expect 2-3 million more on election day. Trump can not overcome that level of voting. I think Biden will carry TX, but I also think that Hegar will lose to Cornyn. Naturally, I hope I am wrong about the latter prediction.
-Laelth
