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Klaralven

(7,510 posts) Fri Oct 30, 2020, 03:38 PM Oct 2020

The stock market's 'presidential predictor' is on cusp of forecasting a Biden victory

The stock market’s late October tumble is on the verge of delivering bad news to President Donald Trump’s re-election hopes.

The “Presidential Predictor,” popularized by Sam Stovall, CFRA’s chief investment strategist, tracks the S&P 500 index’s SPX, -2.11% performance from July 31 to Oct. 31. Going back to 1944, it’s found that a positive move over that stretch usually corresponds to a presidential victory by the incumbent party, while a negative move signals a loss (see chart below).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-markets-presidential-predictor-is-on-cusp-of-delivering-bad-news-to-the-trump-campaign-11604076754

2 replies

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The stock market's 'presidential predictor' is on cusp of forecasting a Biden victory (Original Post) Klaralven Oct 2020 OP

Moody Analytics- it's a Biden win. They have correctly called every prez election since 1976 Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #1

Stock market already priced in a Biden win. Current drops are due to no stim & worsening covid . .nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2020 #2

Thekaspervote

(32,705 posts)

1. Moody Analytics- it's a Biden win. They have correctly called every prez election since 1976

Reply to Klaralven (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 03:41 PM

Oct 2020

Less one

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,957 posts)

2. Stock market already priced in a Biden win. Current drops are due to no stim & worsening covid . .nt

Reply to Klaralven (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 03:48 PM

Oct 2020

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