Montana really could be closer than you think

[coti]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/montana/

Far from expecting Biden to win MT, but if you look at the polls the most recent samples are showing a clear trend toward Biden, and it's getting close enough (Biden within 2-3%) that turnout factors could determine the result in this small-population state with a politically-active college culture.

[Stallion]

1. Hopefully It Will Push Bullock Over the Line in the Senate

[dchill]

2. Could be good news for Bullock.

I hope so!

[icwlmuscyia]

8. Met Bullock during the Iowa caucuses - really liked him

Don't think I have ever met a more down to earth guy.

If he wins, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get talked about nationally. I sure hope so.

[coti]

3. MT is also dealing with a very serious COVID breakout right now nt

[MissB]

6. 1000+ new cases and 27 deaths today

It’s horrific

[SWBTATTReg]

4. Good!! I would sure welcome any of our friends from the South and West that are in ...

former states that rump won in 2016. As Americans for all Americans, why not? It's obvious that rump only thinks of one thing and one thing only, NOT the USA, but himself. What a selfish moron.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. It might have been a mistake not to emphasize Montana a little bit

I always emphasize the ideological percentages. Montana in that regard has never been a lost cause. It tops out at 40% conservatives even in bad cycles, while other GOP states reach well into the mid 40s and a few like Alabama can get to 50.

Plus note how Montana shifted sharply in ideology the last time we had a cycle like this with big nationwide slant:

2004: 36% conservatives 18% liberals
2008: 34% conservatives 21% liberals

That 2008 result was damn close to the national numbers. It demonstrated some elasticity in Montana. But then 2012 drifted back toward default status at 40% conservatives 19% liberals.

The lack of large cities limits Montana's upside, and with only 3 electoral votes it can't be too much of a priority. But let's put it this way, if Republicans had a state with similar longshot status but within reasonable ideological grasp, they would definitely take a swing at it. We seem overly reliant on recent voting percentages and not the makeup of a state.

The educational numbers in Montana are surprisingly very decent, at 30% no-college and 36% college graduates in 2016 electorate. That is very similar to most of the swing states and actually far superior to states like Pennsylvania and Ohio.

[coti]

7. I agree. The state even has a Dem governor and Senator

Clearly Dems weren't completely out of the running this year.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. I've sweated out lots of those Montana races here late at night

Schweitzer before Bullock and especially Tester a couple of times, including one all nighter when he trailed throughout but many of us here were desperately rooting for the Indian reservation vote to put Tester over the top

It did

[WSHazel]

9. MT, SC, AK and KS will be closer than WI and MI

but "tightening polls" is all we hear from the pundits. Sell the horse race.

[OregonBlue]

10. Most recent Dem internal poll shows Bullock up by 1. Biden down by 5.

[Sherman A1]

12. K&R