Biden winning Florida independents by 10 points?

[Alhena]

Two different polls have shown this- may help us overcome the lagging turnout in Miami-Dade:

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_CD13GEN_October28_EH39F.pdf

https://www.climatepower2020.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2020/10/Florida-Results.pdf

[regnaD kciN]

1. The only votes that will count are those turned in to the election office in time...

...and, if certain Florida post offices are simply holding mail until it's too late -- hey, as Trump's lawyers put it, "there is no constitutional right to prompt mail service."

[Nimble_Idea]

5. Not sure how long your post will last

but I agree with your sentiment.

[List left]

2. **WARNING** These links download pdf's to your device **WARNING**

[Alhena]

4. What's wrong with pdfs?

[getagrip_already]

10. virus's have been wrapped in .pdf packaging before......

That was a loooong time ago in IT terms (started in 2002 I think), but it's always good practice to not open files you don't know the source of.......

[Sherman A1]

6. Thanks for letting us know.

[Stand and Fight]

7. LOL... WTF... There's nothing wrong with PDFs being downloaded.

Besides, anyone can see that by looking at the link. What is the point of your warning? Asking as a programmer with decades of experience.

[bbernardini]

9. I suspect the warning was for those on mobile devices with a finite data limit. nt

[getagrip_already]

11. well, back in 2002....

virus's started being wrapped in .pdf's.

Maybe not a current problem, but people with 2 decades of experience should have memories....

https://www.cnet.com/news/new-virus-travels-in-pdf-files/

[zackymilly]

12. Ouch! (or memory cards!) n/t

[Dem2]

3. In NH, 16% of Republicans are voting for Biden

At least according to a recent ARG poll.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. My estimate has been 8

That's why I'm not paranoid about turnout. The turnout level merely needs to be close enough for preference and crossover to get over the top.

That should be the case

I have followed Trump's approval rating among independents closely since mid 2017. That was always going to be the deciding factor in 2018 and 2020. Trump won independents by 4 points in 2016, both in Florida and nationally. But independents were aghast at Trump from early 2017 and have never returned. Democrats won independents 54-42 in 2018. Gillum won independents in Florida 54-44.

I don't think it will be that wide with Trump himself on the ballot, even though his approval rating among Florida independents is only 41/59. I am hoping for Biden +8 among independents. The recent Univision poll had Biden leading Florida independents 47-42 with 5% third party and 6% undecided. Hard to believe there will be 5% to third party.

10 point margin would be fantastic

[getagrip_already]

13. a few early indicators point to a good night......

The one you mentioned showing indies breaking for biden....

The reports of an unexpected and delightful youth turnout in stunning numbers....

The ratio of republicans supporting biden far exceeds the dems supporting trump....

The polls showing woman, and suburban voters in general breaking for biden.....

The historical trend of undecided voters breaking for the challenger.....

And the historical analysis showing a tight correlation between presidential mid term favorability ratings and vote margins.

Most of these factors wouldn't be picked up in polls because they are basing turnout on a mix of 2016 and 2018, and poll accordingly.

Should be a hekuva election - if we can get every vote out and counted.

[beachbumbob]

15. its all about turnout and polling is meaningless going forward