General Discussion

NRaleighLiberal

(60,014 posts) Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:00 PM Oct 2020

It's a small thing..but.. whew! 538 finally has Joe at 90%, Economist at 96%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

It took a day for that one grey tie ball to go blue. It now looks as if the remaining red balls are getting sucked to the right and turning blue. (that is an odd sentence, I know).

Could go grey again. But over the 19 days I've been tracking it, it's been at 86 twice, 87 12 time, 88 3 times, 89 once and 90 once. No tightening!

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

12 replies

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It's a small thing..but.. whew! 538 finally has Joe at 90%, Economist at 96% (Original Post) NRaleighLiberal Oct 2020 OP

Yes. Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #1

and all possible october surprises blew up in dumpf's face. NRaleighLiberal Oct 2020 #3

And he was counting on that surprise Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #5

Woohoo! Finally. nt cry baby Oct 2020 #2

YESS! ColoradoBlue Oct 2020 #4

Always like to see that number get higher Dem2 Oct 2020 #6

I can't begin to understand why New Mexico is only light blue. PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 2020 #7

Economist has it as +13 Joe - safe Dem. NRaleighLiberal Oct 2020 #8

Right. This state is as save Democratic as exists. PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 2020 #12

I love blue balls SlogginThroughIt Oct 2020 #9

Probability Comparisons - XKCD ThoughtCriminal Oct 2020 #10

Great stuff! NRaleighLiberal Oct 2020 #11

Johnny2X2X

(19,066 posts)

1. Yes.

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:04 PM

Oct 2020

Part of it is good polling. Part of it is the clock running out. It’s going to move about a point a day. 94-6 ok Election Day seems about right.

NRaleighLiberal

(60,014 posts)

3. and all possible october surprises blew up in dumpf's face.

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:07 PM

Oct 2020

Ironic that his so-called "hoax" is really doing him in.

Johnny2X2X

(19,066 posts)

5. And he was counting on that surprise

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:12 PM

Oct 2020

There were actual quotes from Trump about how the information that was coming out was going to be the end of Joe’s campaign. He bought the garbage Rudy was selling.

cry baby

(6,682 posts)

2. Woohoo! Finally. nt

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:06 PM

Oct 2020

ColoradoBlue

(104 posts)

4. YESS!

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:12 PM

Oct 2020

Been checking that thing all day!

Dem2

(8,168 posts)

6. Always like to see that number get higher

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:17 PM

Oct 2020

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,855 posts)

7. I can't begin to understand why New Mexico is only light blue.

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 11:17 PM

Oct 2020

This is a largely Democratic state.

NRaleighLiberal

(60,014 posts)

8. Economist has it as +13 Joe - safe Dem.

Reply to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #7)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 11:29 PM

Oct 2020

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,855 posts)

12. Right. This state is as save Democratic as exists.

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #8)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 11:48 PM

Oct 2020

The person who frequently posts the Senate races almost never has NM as safe Dem, although his most recent posting he has.

The Republican running is laughably bad and will probably lose by double digits. Not that I'm at all crazy about the Democrat in the race, but he's light-years better than the Republican, a former TV weatherman.