Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Voting Blog - Joe's in charge!
Major changes from this AM:
Clark Dem firewall (with new mail votes) is up to 81K. That is a big number — I have always said the Dems want to get up above 80K in Clark to feel good, and there is still one day left (today) of early voting while mail continues to come in through Tuesday.
Statewide, the lead for the Dems is just under 45K (so the Clark mail offset the rural gains). That’s a little under 4 percent or right at voter reg numbers.
More than 1 million Nevadans have cast ballots, which is closing in on 60 percent of active voters. If 1.4 million vote, which would be slightly above 2016’s 77 percent, that means 73 percent have already voted who will cast ballots in the election. If 1.5 million vote, which would be astounding (85 percent), that means before we see any early votes from today, 68 percent of the vote is in.
In 2016, 70 percent voted early or by mail after two weeks. Where are all these Election Day votes I keep hearing about? Are we really going to have 90 percent turnout?
Clark is up to 69 percent of the vote, with Washoe at 18 and the rurals at 13. That’s not far off what the actual registration is.
Here’s what the models look like with those million or so votes – you can see the Biden lead is holding steady and even in a ridiculously optimistic scenario for Trump, the president still is losing right now in Nevada:
The first column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and split others evenly, 45 percent to 45 percent.
And it may be worse than it looks.
Several folks, including poker pro Andy Bloch and data guru John Samuelsen, have pointed out that the “others” are voting more by mail (136,700) than by in-person (110,400) and that may indicate they are more Democratic-leaning than GOP-leaning. If you allocate proportionally, that’s a decent lead for Biden with indies, perhaps as much as 10 points.
If so, that’s more than game over; that’s a nearly double digit lead for him. Add in that “other” also are younger, as our Tabitha Mueller pointed out today, and the guy in the belltower is starting to walk up the stairs to make the bell toll.
I am that guy, and I’m not quite at the top of that tower yet. And I still may feel like Jimmy Stewart when I get there.
Unlike those data guys, I try to model various scenarios and don’t necessarily think that behavior of how they are voting (mail or in-person) is necessarily correlative. But the theory is pretty sound, especially in a year when the different partisan voting patterns are so stark.
I’ll dive deeper later when I can….
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
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