General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums538: Biden has cracked the 90 in 100 chance of winning
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromoVogon_Glory
(9,129 posts)Im one of the believers here and I think Ill be down on my knees late Election Night: either praying that God has mercy on us for our collective stupidity or thanking the Almighty for deliverance from a beast.
DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)MFM008
(19,818 posts)I could croak.
(And Florida.)
Pennsylvania is my dads state.
He was born and raised there.
Our relations landed there in 1853
From Cavan Co. IRE.
Dad left at 17 for the AA Corp in 1947 before there was a
USAF.When there was, he joined that to.
Never went back except to visit his brothers
A few times ..most are gone now including dad.
Used to be reliably blue and fiercly union.
Im sick to death of them all.
I get why he never went back to Pittsburgh.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,857 posts)... never lived there!
My parents moved a short distance to a newly-developed suburb of Dayton in the mid-70's, and I realized by 1979 that almost all of my elementary school classmates in SW Ohio were Pittsburgh Pirates fans who were born in that area of PA.
Then I learned almost all of their parents had union jobs at GM, and all of them were Catholic.
Then I became more aware of news and history, and learned about the steel mills that had previously closed around Pittsburgh.
It seemed like a mass-migration to SW Ohio from there! It was very weird to me, especially since it wasn't the late-1700's or early-1800's!
I'd love to ask anyone involved in it how it came about. Did union workplaces contact other union workplaces to offer the employees new jobs?
Then those same Pittsburgh families were the first ones to move out of the neighborhood in the 80's, apparently flocking away together to some new location.
modrepub
(3,503 posts)there are about a dozen counties in PA where the population is actually growing. Maybe Butler County near Pittsburgh with most of the rest is in SE PA (I-78 on NJ border to I-81 down through SC PA). Basically any county that has hung their hat on extraction/large manufacturing has an aging/shrinking population. The areas that have attracted financial/tech/small-medium manufacturing are worlds away from what you experienced in the western part of the state. The 202 corridor has for decades been the home to many tech-service type industries and financials like Vanguard. Hell, even Philly is home to Comcast (the evil empire).
So, which is easier to do, find another $20+/hour manufacturing/extraction (coal) job when it's automated away or retool your office skills to some other industry? My wife lost her job (not surprisingly shortly after she turned 50) as a programer for a large medical records company. She landed another job at a large battery manufacturer who was looking for someone with programing skills a little over a month after she was laid off; she filed for unemployment just to be counted for that sick bastard of a president we have.
The point I'd like to make is you have wide swaths of PA that are literally shrinking because of automation in the large manufacturing and mineral extraction industries leaving behind a host of aging hostile/angry people (who blame the "elite" for their chosen plight). And the SE part of the state that is more service/small-medium niche manufacturing and technologically oriented that seem to be more adaptable when change does finally arrive at their door step (and who are probably shouldering most of the PA's tax burden).
We'll see which area of PA wins out sometime next week. But unless the long term population trends reverse or stabilize (how can they if the employment trend continues), I don't see Trump's base able to retain their power much longer (they're shrinking, dying off with any kids leaving for greener pastures).
calimary
(81,467 posts)jcgoldie
(11,646 posts)...where everyone's vote mattered as much as one in Pennsylvania or Florida?!?
Rigyt?!
Cicada
(4,533 posts)That possibility gives Trump a higher probability than 10%.
The constitution allows legislatures to ignore what residents want. We need to change that.
marie999
(3,334 posts)But all states have laws that say that the party that receives a majority vote makes up the list of possible members of the Electoral Collage.
Cicada
(4,533 posts)Kavanaugh in a recent opinion, in a footnote, said the legislature has the final say. The laws you refer to would be asserted by the courts of the state. Kavanaugh believes the constitution gives the decision to the legislature even if state courts declare the legislative action illegal. He cited a dissent by Rehnquist as clearly correct, granting the legislature the final say. The conservatives on the Barret court other than Roberts will probably agree with Kavanaugh. So my point remains valid. There is a chance the vote of the people will be ignored. See https://lawandcrime.com/2020-election/kavanaugh-tips-hand-on-how-he-might-rule-in-contested-election-case/
Turin_C3PO
(14,054 posts)which state the electors must vote for the candidate that wins the state. So there's no danger of your scenario happening luckily.
Cicada
(4,533 posts)See https://lawandcrime.com/2020-election/kavanaugh-tips-hand-on-how-he-might-rule-in-contested-election-case/
Kavanaugh believes the legislature has the final say. Those state laws you refer to would be asserted by a state court if the legislature ignored them. Per Kavanaugh the legislature wins, the state court loses. I think Roberts disagrees with Kavanaugh. But the other conservatives? I bet they side with Kavanaugh. I think there is a chance voters will be ignored.
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)And they cannot change the rules in the middle of an election. (I know, Florida tried to do just that in 2000, but that was never tested in court because of the SCOTUS 5-4 fiasco)
Cicada
(4,533 posts)See https://lawandcrime.com/2020-election/kavanaugh-tips-hand-on-how-he-might-rule-in-contested-election-case/
Roberts clearly respects the right of the state Supreme Court to assert state law against a rogue legislature ignoring state law but Kavanaugh, citing the Rehnquist dissent in Bush v Gore , recently opined that Rehnquist was clearly correct, that the legislature trumps the state Supreme Court should they disagree.
The 10% odds at 538 are substantially different from the betting markets which give Trump better odds of winning. In my opinion the wisdom of the crowd correctly perceives a chance that a legislature will go rogue and ignore voters, simply declaring Trump the winner in their state. I dont agree that the odds of that are one in five but I think the odds are better than zero.
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)Cicada
(4,533 posts)Do you have a reason to believe that one of the conservative supremes other than Roberts agrees with you that Kavannaugh is wrong?
Response to yellowcanine (Reply #26)
Cicada This message was self-deleted by its author.
malaise
(269,157 posts)Indeed I'm still hoping for 95% by tomorrow
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)malaise
(269,157 posts)reelection. And the pandemic is just the worst of his many failures.
paleotn
(17,960 posts)We're not seeing the variation over time like 2016, or most presidential elections for that matter. I think most minds were made up long before 2020.
jaxexpat
(6,849 posts)Could be that when (if) the dust settles, 50% of ALL mailed ballots will be discounted. Could.
Could be the violence at the polls will be between Trump's and Biden's armies of attorneys. Could.
Could be I'd settle for a squeaker Biden victory. Definitely!
ProfessorGAC
(65,168 posts)They use different methodology, but over 90 is over 90.
BasicallyComplicated
(60 posts)Vote get someone else to vote !!! VOTE damnit!
ProfessorGAC
(65,168 posts)I already did. I'm discouraging some people who I suspect will vote PINO and against the progressive tax amendment.
I've voted in every general election since 1974. I don't need encouragement.
And I used to advise on industry & science for the state dem party. I know what to do.
Amishman
(5,559 posts)538's however is very well designed
ProfessorGAC
(65,168 posts)Yes, they use national polls, but they use trend lines from sequential polls, not just the average data.
Also, they have several political & economic factors on a state basis.
So, their model is far more sophisticated than merely reliant on national polling.
In 2016, they had Clinton at 78%. 538 had her at 71.4%. They were the only two predictors under 80, IIRC.
Some were as high as 98%.
Since it's all just experimenting with number, I think it unwise to dismiss any aggregator out of hand.
Amishman
(5,559 posts)I looked at the breakdowns in the recent set of Trafalgar polls.
Just not believable data.
Not just for it's Trump support levels, but how it gets there. The MI poll has Trump winning the youth vote, losing the elderly, winning 25% of the black vote, getting significant Democrat crossover, but still not quite getting to 50% with men overall. If by some improbable circumstance Trump wins MI it certainly wouldn't look like that.
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)lpbk2713
(42,766 posts)America's long nightmare will soon be over.
George II
(67,782 posts)Highlight "Key States"
Click on Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (not even Michigan) for Biden, these are the results:
Biden >99 in 100, 364.8 Electoral Votes
trump
George II
(67,782 posts)Highlight "Key States"
Click on Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (not even Michigan) for Biden, these are the results:
Biden greater than 99 in 100, 364.8 Electoral Votes
trump less than 1 in 100, 173.2 Electoral Votes
Add Michigan for Biden and it barely changes, EVs go to 365.1 to 172.9.