I believe the AP (& networks) will be able to declare Biden's victory on election night.* (Do you?)

[NurseJackie]

I believe the AP (& networks) will be able to declare Biden's victory on election night. (Do you?)

* it may be after midnight... but it will be before the sun rises on Wednesday morning.


When do you think it will be "called" for Joe Biden?

33 votes, 2 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	On election night (or early AM).
	29 (88%)
	By the end of the week.
	4 (12%)
	By the end of the month.
	0 (0%)
	2 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[NightWatcher]

1. 9:30-10:00 EST

[Zoonart]

2. AS soon as the polls close on the West Coast.

Make it so.

[dameatball]

3. I passed because I really have no clue what's going to happen. Hoping for a biden blowout win.

[mitch96]

4. So is it automatic win if he gets 270 or more? I hope I hope I hope I hope I hope I hope nt,

[ucrdem]

5. I think you are right.

No doubt there will be one or two "contested" battleground states like Florida and Ohio where they hold out for as long as possible but I don't think it will matter. I don't think the nutjobs will make much trouble either.

[panader0]

6. Yes, especially if we win Florida and North Carolina.

[blm]

15. ✔️

[beachbumbob]

7. once Ca polls close at 10pm CST

many states will be a Biden win and exit polling and key precincts in other states will fill in the rest

[Wounded Bear]

8. I think it will happen...

Trump will contest it, but I see 350 EV minimum as being very possible.

[N_E_1 for Tennis]

9. It'll be a...

[catbyte]

10. How can they if some states don't even begin counting mail-in ballots until the next morning?

Unless you think he'll get to 270 on the states who start counting ballots when they're received and early/in-person votes. For instance, Michigan won't start counting mail-in ballots until the 2nd in certain cities and on the 3rd in the rest of the places. Our Secretary of State said it could take up to a week for a total.

[Statistical]

13. Exactly. If Biden wins FL it will be an early night.

But a winner likely won't be called in about 7 of the 12 battleground states on election night. So if Biden loses FL I don't think he will get to 270 on election night. Probably very close and probably leading in multiple uncalled states and probably very very very likely he eventually wins but not officially called.

[Kaleva]

14. In Michigan, mail in ballots will start be counted on election day.

"Marquette city clerk, Kyle Whitney, says about 40 percent of the city has already turned in absentee ballots.

The counting will begin Tuesday at 7 a.m. Whitney says there will be 12 volunteers running ballots between four different tabulators.

No one will be allowed to leave the counting room once counting begins."

and the good news:

"Whitney said there will be no ‘election week’ in Marquette and ballots should all be counted by the end of election night."

https://www.uppermichiganssource.com/2020/10/31/city-clerk-offices-gear-up-for-absentee-ballot-counting/

Marquette is the largest city in Marquette county which is the largest county in Upper Michigan. Obama won the county in 2008 and 2012 and Hillary won it in 2016.

[catbyte]

20. New bill says cities with over 25,000 people can get a head start on the 2nd

They can start processing them on the 2nd so they can be counted first thing on the 3rd. I worded it wrong, sorry.

It was passed but for some weird reason, some places around metro Detroit won't take advantage of it.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/16/absentee-ballots-michigan-counting-processing/3680090001/

Some of Michigan's largest cities will not pre-process absentee ballots, despite new law
Dave Boucher
Christina Hall
Detroit Free Press
October 16, 2020

Although 51 of Michigan's largest cities will take advantage of a new law and start processing — not counting — absentee ballots ahead of Election Day, some big cities in metro Detroit chose not to participate.

The decision by some of these cities means they will not get a head start on preparing more than 100,000 absentee ballots to be counted on Nov. 3, potentially further delaying final results that are already expected to come well past the time polls close.

"The goal was to ensure clerks had more time, but it was up to them if they wanted to take advantage of that. You’d have to ask the clerks from those cities why they decided not to," said Tracy Wimmer, a spokeswoman for Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson.

[Kaleva]

21. It'd be interesting to find out why some clerks aren't taking advantage of this.

[Laelth]

11. Yep. The networks will call it for Biden shortly after CA polls close.

The blue tsunami will be obvious.

-Laelth

[Statistical]

12. Can't say. Depends on if Biden wins FL.

If he does it will be called election night and that will be that. IF he loses FL it is likely PA (and a few other battleground states he wins) will not be called on election night.

[treestar]

16. Is it more mail in ballots?

That's the only reason I can think of for why it would be any different from any other election. But the pundits seem excited about the prospect of it taking a long time to get to a result - guess they know they'll have a bigger audience for a longer time.

[Silent3]

17. Serious news orgs don't call the race until they reach 270+ with called states

I believe a clear victory is possible on election night, but not one that will get "called".

I don't think AP or the networks will call the race until they've called enough individual states to reach an electoral vote tally of 270 or more.

I also think vote tallying will be slowed down a lot by all of the mail-in votes in many swing states, so getting enough data to call 270 EVs-worth of states might take a few days.

For my own part, however, I'll personally call it for Biden with 90% confidence if Biden wins Florida. If we're lucky and Biden wins Texas, which we could well know by late Tuesday or early Wednesday, I'll be 99.9% sure Biden has won so well that nothing Trump and his minions try to do with court challenges can steal the race any more.

[SoonerPride]

18. CNN and MSNBC will call it for Biden, Fox will say trump won

That’s my thought.

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. PA will not be called on Tues/Wed, but if Biden takes AZ, NV and NE2, he wins

Assuming of course, that MN, WI, and MI are called for Biden election night. FL and NC, and possibly GA results will be known, and Biden wins any of those, along with the three Rust Belt states besides PA, he wins.

Had to pass on the poll- too many unknowns.