Is the race really closer than we think...or not?

[Algernon Moncrieff]

‘People Are Going To Be Shocked’: Return of the ‘Shy’ Trump Voter?

In 2016, months of national polls confidently showed Hillary Clinton ahead, and set many Americans up for a shock on Election Night, when the Electoral College tilted decisively in Trump’s favor. Two pollsters who weren’t blindsided by this are Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly. Kapteyn, a Dutch economist who leads the USC’s Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, oversaw the USC/Los Angeles Times poll that gave Trump a 3-point lead heading into election day—which, Kapteyn notes, was wrong: Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points. Cahaly, a Republican pollster with the Trafalgar Group, had preelection surveys that showed Trump nudging out Clinton in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and North Carolina—all of which he won.


This year, both men believe that polls could again be undercounting Trump’s support. The reason is “shy” Trump voters—people reluctant to share their opinions for fear of being judged. Though the “shy voter” idea is thrown around a lot by both Trump supporters and Democratic skeptics, Kapteyn and Cahaly have specific insights into why, and how, Trump support might be going undetected.

For Cahaly, those votes are likely to make the difference again. “There’s a lot of hidden Trump votes out there,” he says. “Will Biden win the popular vote? Probably. I’m not even debating that. But I think Trump is likely to have an Electoral College victory.”

As an illustration, Kapteyn described what his team at USC sees in its polls. Beyond simply asking voters whether they support Biden or Trump, USC asks a “social-circle” question—“Who do you think your friends and neighbors will vote for?”—which some researchers believe makes it easier for people to share their true opinions without fear of being judged for their views.

On the other hand, Nate Silver says there is no good evidence this thing is closer than the polling indicates

25 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	I think this race is closer than the polling numbers we are seeing
	2 (8%)
	I think the polling numbers are just about right
	9 (36%)
	I think this race is more lopsided than the polls indicate
	14 (56%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
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[Cirque du So-What]

1. Yes. No.

Maybe?


I have lost confidence in polling after the debacle four years ago. It’s hard not to retain some faith, however, that the polls are somewhat reflective of reality.

[robbob]

11. Polling is meaningless

When you have a James Comey ratfucking the election 10 days before Election Day. He will have to live with the damage he caused for the rest of his miserable life, and I hope we never let him forget it.

[Iggo]

20. 225,000 dead and counting, Mr Comey.

I wish I could type this with the same amount of breath and spit as when I say it out loud, but her goes:

"Mr. Comey? FUCK YOU!""

[Wounded Bear]

2. I suspect there are far more "shy Biden" voters than shy Trump voters...

Trump voters tend to be out there, in your face assholes.

Biden voters are more introspective and thoughtful.

I'll take the latter any day.

[MyOwnPeace]

17. You show an innate trust in America.......

I'm with 'ya, but I'm pulling for a Biden landslide!!!!

[Algernon Moncrieff]

24. In 2016 it was different

Many people thought there was no way Trump could win, and people were hesitant about admitting their opinions. Fast forward - 2020 Trump supporter is defiant. Flying their Trump flag and wearing their MAGA gear, they want the world to know where they stand. My. Sense is that the "silent majority" is sick of "The Trump Show." Washington still seems swampy, and he is ineffective- that's the takeaway.

[Shermann]

3. The default position is that the polls are just about right

The other two come with a burden of proof.

[Goodheart]

4. It's ALWAYS closer than we think. And there's an explanation.

While both sides are equally likely to state a preference to a pollster, people who HATE are always more motivated to vote than people who are TOLERANT.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

12. There is truth to that. A lot of people hate Trump

...and a lot of people hate liberals. So turnout should be high.

[MineralMan]

5. Just Vote, and Bring Others to the Polls to Vote.

Nothing else matters right now.

[Laelth]

6. I suspect pollsters over-compensated after 2016.

I suspect that the actual voting will be slightly bluer than the current polling indicates.

-Laelth

[Bettie]

16. Rachel Bitcofer has said that they

adjusted polling to include more on non-college educated white men. You know, the ones who have "economic anxiety" ...which is apparently a term that apparently means: racism, misogyny, and a bunch of other hate.

[ooky]

7. I think it's going to be Blowout City.

[qazplm135]

8. The only unknown is new voters

Shy Trump voters? Yeah no. Shy Biden voters? Not many of those either.

But in some places up to a quarter of new voters are coming out. Are they Biden? Trump?

I tend to think the former, but we won't find out til Tuesday night.

[Binkie The Clown]

9. Trump will get creamated by an historical margin. nt

[Shermann]

13. Yes he will get "creamated"

Creamed and cremated at the same time. Great word!

[Buckeye_Democrat]

10. I think the Biden/Harris leads might be a bit larger...

... after pollsters adjusted their poll sampling to include more stupid people after the 2016 results.

Nate Silver expressed the idea a few weeks ago that the pollsters might have went too far with those adjustments.

I also suspect that they haven't been sampling enough young voters.

We'll soon see.

[Shermann]

14. You've met the burden of proof

The pollsters can't really get this wrong in the same direction as 2016. It would be humiliating and disqualifying.

So in the interest of self-preservation I can see them overcompensating.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

15. Maybe. I hope so!

[obamanut2012]

21. Yup n/t

[Maru Kitteh]

18. I choose

optimism.


Of course, I'm text-banking today so I also choose to fight like hell!

[Algernon Moncrieff]

23. Acting like Biden is 2 points down with a lot of people yet to vote is the right idea

Thanks for text banking.

[mcar]

19. How about the "shy" Biden voters?

Odd they don't consider them. But, as usual for some of these prognosticators, the only votes that matter are the ones for the Republicans.

[beachbumbob]

22. Biden wins by 20 million votes, not a close election. GOP knows and we know

[Amishman]

25. The race could very well be tighter but the chances of success are not lower

I think the very high turnout will cause states to 'run home' to their underlying partizan advantage.

This puts Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Georgia as unlikely to go blue.

At the same time, this makes states where we have an underlying numeric advantage (MI, PA, WI, NV) even safer than the polls suggest.

The most important part is we don't need anything beyond those favorable states to win, the pubs absolutely do.

That being said, I think we win the lion's share of the swingiest of swing states (FL, NC, AZ) very narrowly with independents breaking for Biden and putting us over the top.

[lame54]

26. I think Trump is getting stomped but...

Between cheating and the electoral college we are still far from home

[Delarage]

27. 2016, 2018, 2020

In 2016, they were running against Hillary (who they had been bashing for decades, resulting in high unfavorables)...AND turnout was lower because, really, who the hell thought 45 could win? I was actually rooting for him to win the primary b/c I thought he'd be so easy to beat.

In 2018, the first referendum on Trump (and pre-COVID). Despite gerrymandering, even Repuke districts flipped as disgusted voters came out in droves (for a mid-term).

2020: The big referendum on Trump. Hundreds of thousands dead, wildfires, hurricanes, the economy in the tank. We have a warm, honest, resilient and experienced man leading the ticket and a sharp and energetic running mate. Topping it off, our guy was the running mate of choice of one of the most popular Presidents in modern history. Record numbers of early voting. Record numbers of young voters coming out all over the country. There's no way that 45 gains votes--he loses them. And he's inspired many people to come out against him and his asshole minions.

[Generic Brad]

28. Trump will have the most votes in history cast against him

He's about to find out how unpopular and hated he is and it promises to be a rude awakening. Losers be losing!