538 version of what the map would look like if polls are exactly as wrong as in 2016 - Nate Silver

[mzmolly]

Link to tweet

[Phoenix61]

1. That's comforting! nt

[Dem2]

2. Now this is good info

Nice to know there's a bit of a cushion.

[wryter2000]

3. Thanks

The polls weren't really that wrong in 2016, at least not as 538 predicted. He had Hillary at 65% on election day, which still left Trump with a 35% chance of winning. That's not insurmountable. Plus, the popular vote came out as predicted.

[mzmolly]

5. Agree.

Though I was certain Hillary would win based upon polling. This does help put things in perspective for the nervous Nellie's among us. Myself included.

[Mike 03]

4. That's amazing.

Florida still goes blue.

[Bettie]

6. That actually makes me feel a whole lot better

I find it hard to believe he's gained more support over the last four years.

But I am still afraid. PTSD.

[Laelth]

7. That will do.

I suspect Biden/Harris will do better than that.



-Laelth

[central scrutinizer]

8. Yet I got another 300 doom and gloom emails and texts

In the last eight hours pleading for money. “It’s over, we’re packing” “McConnell (Graham, Ernst, Collins....) laughing”, “Biden (Kelly, Bullock, McGrath....) loses”. “300% (400%, 500%, 700%) match.”

[scipan]

9. FL GA and PA 65 votes

Leaves Biden with 270. Still wins.