DMR: Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades

[Drunken Irishman]

Not a good result.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/

Trump heads Biden 48-41. Biden has dropped six points from their last poll.

Here's the breakdown of early votes vs election day votes:

Among those who have already voted, Biden leads 55% to 32%. And among those who have yet to vote, Trump leads 64% to 28%.

So, Biden is on track to lose Iowa by about the same margin Hillary did in 2016.

[tormadjax]

1. WTH is happening?!!!!!!! n/t

[RandySF]

2. Fuck

[msongs]

3. it's a poll in a lily white state nt

[exboyfil]

4. That Des Moines Register poll

was very accurate last time. That was how I knew Clinton was in trouble.

I wish I hadn't read that. How can my state be so f___king stupid?

[Jamesyu]

5. Sigh...

Whelp there goes Iowa and probably Ohio.

[Iliyah]

6. No surprise . . .

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Definitely a surprise.

This is a collapse similar to what Hillary saw in the closing days of 2016. I wasn't sure Biden could win Iowa but I didn't expect him to drop this much in a month. It's a bad poll. Hopefully it's an outlier and not something more.

[mvd]

13. Well there are no other collapse numbers, right?

This could be just Dump solidifying things in a now pretty red state.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. I mean, he went from 47 points to 41 so, he dropped six-points.

Trump gained one-point over the last poll. So, theoretically, the entire shift came from Biden losing support.

[mvd]

20. That is strange and even more shows how it is just one poll

Even decent polls have noise. Iowa being for Dump doesn’t mean the whole Midwest has changed. If we see more like this, then I will worry.

[grantcart]

22. Good pollster but still could be an outlier

[PTWB]

29. No surprise?!

This very same poll had Joe 50 to Trump 38 with independents in September and now has Trump 49 to Joe 35 with independents.

That is a shocking swing.

[still_one]

7. I suspect I know why, but I don't want to get a hide so I will keep it to myself

[zackymilly]

27. See post# 3? nt

[redstateblues]

9. Wasn't counting on Iowa

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Neither was I but a seven-point deficit likely means the Midwest isn't quite locked up.

And Biden's collapse there could hint at problematic areas within the region.

[Proud liberal 80]

16. Umm did you see those CNN Midwest polls today

Geez

[Drunken Irishman]

19. Yes. And those are good.

But to be sure: The Iowa poll is a gold standard poll. The CNN polls only have a B/C rating on 538.

So, we'll have to see how other polls break between now and Monday. But some people were wondering why Biden was campaigning in the Midwest to end the election, despite strong poll numbers, instead of finishing in Georgia, North Carolina and Florida, or even Arizona, where polling is much tighter, and now maybe we know why.

[Proud liberal 80]

23. Lol Clinton was criticized for doing what Biden is doing now

Shoring up the blue wall....she spent her last days in the latter states instead of the Midwest

[still_one]

30. I think you mean she was criticized for NOT doing what Biden is doing now, campaigning in

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the blue wall what you speak of

[Proud liberal 80]

36. Yes I did thanks

[still_one]

38. You explained well in the body of your post proud liberal

[Drunken Irishman]

45. This isn't true, either.

In the final week of the campaign, Hillary had two rallies in Michigan (Detroit on 11/4, Grand Rapids the day before the election), five rallies in Pennsylvania (Pittsburgh on 11/4, Philadelphia on 11/5, Philadelphia on 11/6, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on 11/7), two in Ohio (Cleveland on 11/1, Cleveland on 11/6), four in Florida (Dade City, Sanford, Fort Lauderdale, FL on 11/1, Pembroke Pines on 11/5) and three in North Carolina (Winterville & Raleigh on 11/3, Raleigh on 11/7 - her final rally of the campaign).

So, total, she had nine rallies in the final week of the campaign in the Midwest. In the final four days, most her rallies were held in the Midwest (9) than the South (2) - with another being held in New Hampshire on 11/6.

The fact she was in those three states so much at the end of the campaign led many to question whether their internals were showing a closer race than what many believed. When she started her Midwest blitz on 11/4, the state polls for Pennsylvania and Michigan were much more favorable to her than North Carolina and Florida, which were seen as toss-ups.

There clearly was a shift in the final week of the campaign that scared Clinton into going into Pennsylvania and Michigan. The final four days of the campaign, Hillary visited seven times to those two states. In all of October, she visited both Pennsylvania and Michigan just three times (well held three different rallies - one day she had two in Pennsylvania).

Again, they clearly saw something that most the public wasn't seeing because they DID try to shore up that firewall that they saw crumbling or they wouldn't have changed such abrupt course the final week of the campaign like they did.

[triron]

50. B+

[Drunken Irishman]

51. That isn't the poll CNN uses anymore.

CNN used to associate its polling outfit with Opinion Research Corp, which received a B+ rating from 538. But CNN hasn't been with ORC since the 2016 election.

CNN now associates with SSRS, which is newish, and why they've got a double grade. At best, they're a B pollster. At worst, they're a C pollster.

Either way, it's not as good of a pollster as others.

[Wanderlust988]

10. And Trump is still not at 50 percent nt

[Drunken Irishman]

12. He wasn't at 50% in the final 2016 Iowa poll, either...

But he had the same lead (46-39) and won 51-42.

[Proud liberal 80]

15. Why are you people freaking out

About a state poll that only is worth 6 electoral votes and whose demographics aren’t reflective of the nation....and no one thought that these systems was even a battleground at first...after all the other polls today that were positive for Biden in states that actually matter. GEEZ calm the fuck down

[Drunken Irishman]

17. People are antsy because it's a very good poll and Biden isn't doing much better than Hillary.

It's hard to reconcile why Biden would be doing as badly as Hillary in Iowa, yet doing that much better across the Midwest. In 2016, the final DMR poll had Trump +7 and it was a foreshadowing that Hillary's support wasn't as strong in the Midwest as many thought.

I think the concern is rooted in the idea that if Biden is down seven in Iowa, is he really up 8 nationally?

[Proud liberal 80]

18. Iowa doesn't have a

Detroit, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Cleveland, etc..

I a, actually pretty shocked that Iowa isn’t more like Nebraska than the Midwest Great Lake states

[Buckeyeblue]

26. Right. And western Iowa is basically South Dakota.

I don't think you can compare Iowa to Ohio. Much different states.

[Drunken Irishman]

28. 2016 showed us it doesn't matter if you have a Detroit, Philadelphia, Cleveland or Milwaukee.

You can be shocked Iowa isn't more like Nebraska but history has shown it's got more in common with Minnesota and Wisconsin than it does with Nebraska.

Since 1944, Iowa has only voted opposite of Wisconsin in the presidential election once: 2004, when Bush won Iowa by 10,000 votes and Kerry won Wisconsin by about 11,000 votes.

I don't think this means Biden is doomed in the Midwest but it does make you wonder if his lead there is as strong as it appears. Which would explain why he's ending his campaign in states he's supposedly winning decently and yet not down in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia - states he may lead but not by much.

[coti]

24. You're extrapolating waaay too much off of one poll

Here's your jump to conclusions mat:

[still_one]

33. It is because the Seltzer poll is the gold standard in Iowa

[Drunken Irishman]

40. Not really.

From 1988 to 2012, the Democrats won Iowa every year at the presidential level but once - 2004 when Kerry lost it by just 10,000 votes.

Then Hillary got wiped out there by 9 points. The DMR poll was the first poll to pick up Clinton's collapse in Iowa.

From October, to the final DMR poll, here's each poll's margin in Iowa:

Emerson: Trump +3
Loras: Clinton +1
Quinnipiac: Trump +1
DMR: Trump +4

I'm not saying this means a collapse for Biden in Wisconsin or Michigan but it does mean maybe his support isn't as strong as we believed.

[Thekaspervote]

21. Why does this surprise anyone? IA was never gonna go to Biden, nor OH

To lump the rest of the upper MW in with IA is wrong... MI, WI, MN, and PA are not anything like IA. IA is a whole other kettle of fish. More like their red neighbors, MO, KS and the Dakotas.

Stop... Biden is not collapsing in the upper MW!!

MN has never in the past 24 yrs voted for a gop prez, WI, MI and PA have only voted once

No doom and gloom it’s one poll in a very red state

[Proud liberal 80]

34. Ok

Prove it to me!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-wisconsin-arizona-north-carolina/index.html

[PTWB]

41. WI and IA are similar.

Since world war 2 they’ve voted for the same presidential candidate in every election except ‘04, and even then they were extremely close (~10k votes +/-).

[triron]

52. NOT.

[PTWB]

54. NOT.

[sunonmars]

31. Dodgy poll, too swingy and frankly she aint that convinced of her own numbers in it.

[Drunken Irishman]

42. It was the same four years ago...

Everyone thought Iowa was close, and the polls indicated as much, with Trump only up a couple points and one poll even having Clinton up. The DMR's second to last poll, released in early October, had Trump up +3, 43-39. Their final poll had Trump +7, 46-39. So, in that poll, Hillary didn't lose support but Trump gained a lot.

In this poll, Biden's support completely evaporated. He went from 47 to 41. Had the lead been built out of Trump consolidating undecideds, I'd be less concerned. But that isn't the case her. Six-percent of Biden's support vanished in a month. That's scary.

[Aepps22]

39. What Are You Talking About

Aren't you the person that said the debate would give the winner a huge bump?

[icwlmuscyia]

35. Amazing that Trump could totally fuck up the state's #1 industry - farming

more specifically corn and soybean farming and all those farmers will vote for him.

They must like the welfare state.

[smirkymonkey]

49. But they hate socialism!

Go figure. Idiots!

[yellowcanine]

37. I think they oversampled Republicans. Ernst is also suddenly up.

Smell a rat in that DMR poll. Even good pollsters screw up sometimes. This is an outlier.

[DeminPennswoods]

43. Did anyone else find it odd

that 5% of voters had already voted and chose not to tell the pollster for whom they voted?

The poll went from 47-47 (94) to 48-41 (89) and Trump picked up only 1 pt of that 6 point drop? (Coincidentally, the difference is 5%.) Yet, the pollster claims opinions are set and unlikely to change.

Based on this, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/iowa/articles/2020-10-23/early-voting-in-iowa-at-record-pace-with-several-days-left, I'm going to go out on the limb a little bit and say that this poll captured a good snapshot of the election day in person vote.

BTW, final PA polls have been released by Franklin and Marshall and Muhlenberg, the two well-respected Pennsylvania polls. FandM had Biden +5, Muhlenberg +4, along with Quinnipiac that had it at +6.

[kansasobama]

44. Have to say Iowa has lot of stupid people-If they swung for Trump

Really? So, Trump goes really nutty in debates, shows his true colors as a racist and it swung by 7 points!

[LiberalFighter]

46. Not putting much stock in this.

Considering that more people than usual are early voting.

[shrike3]

47. Nate Silver says:

I do think people overthink things some times. In an 800-person poll, the margin of error for the difference between candidates is ~7 points. And 1 in 20 polls will fall outside that margin of error, i.e. be more than 7 points away from the true number.
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
9m
Now, in practice, pollsters may sit on their outliers or rejigger them rather than publish as in. But *good* pollsters like Selzer or ABC/WaPo *do* go with their numbers. So you'll get the occasional Biden +17 in WI or Trump +7 in IA.

Given the margin of error -- they're still tied?

[DeminPennswoods]

55. No doubt there are outliers and this could be one

But, to me, this poll has an issue because a significant chunk of respondents (5%) had already voted, but wouldn't reveal their choice. What's a pollster supposed to do about that? They obviously aren't undecided or going to change their minds. The pollster probably should've allocated them based on early voting stats that apparently favor Biden by quite a bit. But they didn't do that, they just left that subset hanging out there. Again, to me, if they allocate that subset, the margin is probably closer.

OTOH, pretty sure the Biden campaign has its pwn internal polls and models and knows who has already voted and a very good idea of how they voted.

[triron]

48. Crosstabs? Sampling details?

[mcar]

53. Stop. Just stop

Iowa has how many electoral votes?

This is one poll. There is no need to panic. Biden doesn't need Iowa, for god's sake.

[Turin_C3PO]

56. It's not good news but

538 still has him at 9/10 chances of winning. The poll is a respectable one but still, it might be an outlier.

[ooky]

57. I don't believe the change in the independents. Biden up 12 in September is now suddenly

down 14 with independents a month later? What has happened in the last month to explain this? Not buying it.

[exboyfil]

58. The poll was dead on correct again

And the results bled into Wisconsin which was no double digit Biden but a 1% squeaker.

[Drunken Irishman]

59. My concern was this showing Biden's support in the Midwest/Rustbelt wasn't as strong...

...as polls indicated and I feel, just as 2016, this final poll pegged it.

Biden lost support in WI, MI and PA over the last few weeks of the race. Thankfully it doesn't look like enough to lose him ANY of those states but holy hell it's close.