General Discussion

Dr. Jack

(675 posts) Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:02 PM Oct 2020

538 at this point in past elections

I was Biden hit 90% pretty consistently all day, which is looking quite good, and that did make me wonder how that compared to how other elections were looking at this point on 538. It is surprisingly hard to find this info so I figured I would share the fruits of my labor.

2008: Obama 95.7% McCain 4.3%

2012: Obama 90.9% Romney 9.1%

2016: Clinton 64.6% Trump 35.4%

2020: Biden 90% Trump 10%

11 replies

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538 at this point in past elections (Original Post) Dr. Jack Oct 2020 OP

Thx for posting...u r right that info is hard to find Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #1

I used the way back machine Dr. Jack Oct 2020 #2

I'll remember that ..thx Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #3

Are these figures from October 31 in those years or from 3 days out in those years? winstars Oct 2020 #4

3 days before the election Dr. Jack Oct 2020 #7

This message was self-deleted by its author Dr. Jack Oct 2020 #8

538's final Clinton/Trump was 71.4/28.6% TwilightZone Oct 2020 #5

The final polls pick up a swing back to HRC My Pet Orangutan Oct 2020 #9

Please please let blueseas Oct 2020 #6

If said several times that in Florida this reminds me of 2012. GulfCoast66 Oct 2020 #10

The interesting thing is that the polling averages were much tigher in 2012. Hyper_Eye Nov 2020 #11

Thekaspervote

(32,754 posts)

1. Thx for posting...u r right that info is hard to find

Reply to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:13 PM

Oct 2020

Have been looking for a comparison of HRC leads in battleground states vs Biden’s at this point. I have seen charts on occasion and failed to bookmark them..my bad

Dr. Jack

(675 posts)

2. I used the way back machine

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:14 PM

Oct 2020

2012 was the only one that the way back machine was having trouble with. Fortunately there is a screenshot of October 31st 2012 on Google images.

Thekaspervote

(32,754 posts)

3. I'll remember that ..thx

Reply to Dr. Jack (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:18 PM

Oct 2020

winstars

(4,219 posts)

4. Are these figures from October 31 in those years or from 3 days out in those years?

Reply to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:19 PM

Oct 2020

Last edited Sun Nov 1, 2020, 01:54 AM - Edit history (1)

Dr. Jack

(675 posts)

7. 3 days before the election

Reply to winstars (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:42 PM

Oct 2020

Response to winstars (Reply #4)

Dr. Jack This message was self-deleted by its author.

TwilightZone

(25,456 posts)

5. 538's final Clinton/Trump was 71.4/28.6%

Reply to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:22 PM

Oct 2020

Interesting that she actually went up the last couple days. I had forgotten that and thought 71/28 was the low point. Nate noted, however, that Trump was trending upward and that it may not reflect in the polls because it happened so late.

My Pet Orangutan

(9,230 posts)

9. The final polls pick up a swing back to HRC

Reply to TwilightZone (Reply #5)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 10:14 PM

Oct 2020

after Comey announced there was nothing in the Anthony Weiner emails.

But Comey sent at least 3% of the vote to Trump.

blueseas

(11,575 posts)

6. Please please let

Reply to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:28 PM

Oct 2020

Be so !

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)

10. If said several times that in Florida this reminds me of 2012.

Reply to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 10:16 PM

Oct 2020

Except it seems youth turnout is much stronger. As is turnout across the board.

Hyper_Eye

(675 posts)

11. The interesting thing is that the polling averages were much tigher in 2012.

Reply to Dr. Jack (Original post)

Sun Nov 1, 2020, 04:49 PM

Nov 2020

The RCP average on the day of the election was Obama +0.7. Today it's Biden +7.2. I realize that the forecast is almost completely reliant on state polls at the end but the 2012 election appeared to be quite close.

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