Where Biden and Trump stand in Pennsylvania in the polls 3 days out from the election

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

In the Real Clear Politics national polling average, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden maintains a solid 7.8% lead over President Donald Trump, with Biden is averaging 51.3% of the vote, compared to Trump's 43.5%.

However, Biden will still need to focus on key swing states that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lost in 2016, most notably Pennsylvania with its 20 electoral votes.

In 2016, President Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by a slim 0.7% margin over Clinton (48.2%-47.5%). Trump did not secure a majority of the vote in the Keystone State, while each Democratic presidential nominee since 2000 (Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama) except for Clinton won at least 50% of the vote in the state.

If Biden can maintain his base of Democratic support and secure the lion's share of independent voters, he should be able to repeat past Democratic performances in the state. Turning out the vote in Philadelphia and its populous suburbs, as well as Pittsburgh, and winning back blue-collar areas like Erie County and Luzerne County will be critical for the Biden campaign. For Trump to have a shot at winning, he'll have to mobilize his conservative political base, especially in central Pennsylvania and the exurbs of Pittsburgh, to offset losses in the Philadelphia area.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/where-biden-trump-stand-pennsylvania-191049635.html

[SunSeeker]

1. As the article states, Biden is leading Trump 49%-44% in PA.

The final Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released on Saturday showed Biden leading Trump 49%-44% in Pennsylvania, based on data from October 23 to October 28. The previous survey, released on October 23, showed Biden leading 51%-44%, so the former vice president's position hasn't changed very much.

Some key takeaways from the poll:

Nearly half (49%) of voters disapproved of Trump's performance, with 45% approving.

A majority (54%) of Pennsylvania voters feel as though Trump doesn't deserve reelection.

Poll respondents preferred Democratic congressional candidates over Republican candidates 46%-42%.

This pollster has an A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight.

[shrike3]

2. No, that's not what it says.

In the Real Clear Politics national polling average, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden maintains a solid 7.8% lead over President Donald Trump, with Biden is averaging 51.3% of the vote, compared to Trump's 43.5%.

[SunSeeker]

3. Um what? I literally quoted the article.

Biden leading Trump 49%-44% in Pennsylvania,

 



It does say that about the national polling average, but that's not why I clicked on the OP. I clicked on the OP because the headline promised a statement of Biden’s status in PA. Oddly, the OP does not state that status. So I clicked on the link and found that excerpted paragraph in the article. Hence my reply, so folks don't have to go searching for it at the link.

[DeminPennswoods]

5. Here are the last 3 polls

There are 2 from PA pollsters at Franklin and Marshall and Muhlenberg colleges and 1 from Quinnipiac.

The Muhlenberg poll run by Chris Borick and sponsored by the Allentown Morning Call is the closest of the 3. It has Biden up 49-44. Borick's pretty well-respected here as a pollster, but my observation is this poll is usually shows the horse races closer than the others.

The Franklin and Marshall poll, run by Terry Madonna and Berwood Yost, is sponsored by F and M afaik. Madonna is considered the "dean of PA politics". It has Biden up 50-44 (+6). More info here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/107413471

The Quinnipiac poll had Biden ahead 51-44 (+7)

All three polls are consistent with themselves and with each other. Interestingly, while Biden bounces a little around 50%, Trump's vote share is consistent.