State polls underestimated Barack Obama's support by about three points in 2012

[Quixote1818]

Not sure how many people are aware of that? https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/five-reasons-to-believe-2020-wont-be-a-2016-sequel/616896/

[Lithos]

1. Polls only estimate the "average" potential

The plus/minus has to do with how fired up and motivated one side is over the other. Dems were not motivated in 2016, Republicans were - so the numbers were wrong in our favor then. In 2012 and 2008, the Dems were much more motivated.

[Quixote1818]

2. Republicans had the enthusiasm edge in 2012

However, Dems were more enthusiastic in 12 than in 16 where neither candidate was exciting anyone much:

[Lithos]

3. thank you

Was looking for this...

2012 had Obama in the incumbency which I think had an effect as well. Incumbency also affected 2004 as well.

I think we have sufficient enthusiasm, but not sure that it's as huge of an influencer as people think.

[TheRealNorth]

4. Enthusiasm is probably more important for Democrats

Because of all the hoops that some of us have to jump through and/or long lines we have to wait in.

[Lithos]

5. I live in Texas

So, enthusiasm is the energy needed to overcome the barriers our Cons have created to remain in power.