Florida update -It is dependent on independents

[kansasobama]

Florida

As of this morning:

Dems 39.2%
GOP 38.1%
NPA - 21.3%

Dems lead only by 1.1% with 60% voted. Only 94,905. 95000 lead is Hillary Clinton territory which worries me. Maybe, election day GOP voters have already voted (Stay home GOP on election day)

Miami-Dade- Dems lead by only 84000!

Well, I hope the polls are correct. Numbers are giving me some worries. Maybe, NPA's are solidly behind Biden and GOP Retirees are switching sides.

Source: https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

One Good News:
There seems to be some positive news in Miami-Dade today. More Democrats are coming, maybe Kamala worked hard yesterday. Many say that NPAs are voting at a higher rate in Miami-Dade.

[rso]

1. Florida

And Obama is returning to south Florida tomorrow.

[Claustrum]

2. I think I read that the tradition of "souls to the poll" event is scheduled today

So it makes sense that we would have a surge today.

[lark]

10. Nope.

Last edited Sun Nov 1, 2020, 02:36 PM - Edit history (1)

Voldemort ended that when he was governor. We have no early voting on the Sunday before an election now. Souls to the Polls happened yesterday.

Edit - just found out that voting is allowed in some other large counties, but definitely not in Duval which is where I live.

[Claustrum]

12. Thanks for the correction n/t

[Blue_true]

35. The poster is wrong. Most big Florida counties ARE voting today until 8pm.

[obamanut2012]

19. No, we can vote today

[kansasobama]

26. Only some counties closed yesterday, not all

Not Miami-Dade

[Blue_true]

36. Orange and Hillsborough are voting today until 8pm. nt

[Nimble_Idea]

28. I wanted to report this response

but there is apparently no category for fake news.

Early voting is happening today in many Dem counties including miami-dade. Please remove your false statements, it is not funny.

[lark]

43. Oh come on now, I was 1000% not doing this maliciously.

I know for sure voting ended yesterday in Duval county. I have never asked or knew that the starting and stopping of early voting is county specific. I was a poll watcher for FL Dems two years ago and this was never ever mentioned in our training.

I apologize profusely for posting inaccurate information - that was so not my intention.

[mcar]

31. It is up to the county

My county's early voting ended yesterday, but other counties, including M-D, are voting today.

[Blue_true]

37. My red county ended yesterday. The massive counties are voting today. nt

[Blue_true]

32. There is voting today in a number of big counties.

A few will have early voting even tomorrow.

I believe massive Orange and maybe the county that contains Kississimmee are voting today until 8pm (last day for them).

[flamingdem]

38. Please correct your post!

See those below

[lark]

39. Sorry about that

It ended in Duval yesterday, I didn't know it went on in other counties today. Will fix NOW

[flamingdem]

41. Thanks Lark!

[lark]

40. Sorry about that

It ended in Duval yesterday, I didn't know it went on in other counties today. Will fix NOW

[obamanut2012]

20. We are able to vote today

The poster is incorrect.

[Blue_true]

33. Exactly. Fortunately Florida Democrats should know better. nt

[OnDoutside]

3. My brother and his wife are in a red FL county, so haven't registered as

Democrats, and from what he was saying he knows plenty of other Dem voters who would be similarly "independent" but Dem voters.

[lark]

11. Same with my sister and her boyfriend.

Both always vote Dem, but originally registered as Independents and never switched.

[OnDoutside]

25. He reckons he's gets less hassle by doing so, because so much info is public in FL.

[lark]

44. I have a friend whose husband is registered as Repug for that reason.

He's an attorney, and here all the attorneys are repugs, so he's registered repug. He votes Democratic in the general, always.

[OnDoutside]

45. Yeah that sort of thing, my brother bought his house from the guy who

went on to become the mayor, Republican of course, so not worth advertising his party allegiance.

[Rice4VP]

30. Nice!

[kansasobama]

4. Obama going tomorrow?

Today is the last day for EV. Maybe, pushing for Tuesday? Good plan!

[Amishman]

5. I think independents being the deciders will be a wide pattern

Thankfully most polls show Joe with a small advantage with indies.

We need to remember this when we have control, independent voters put Trump in office in 2016 and are sending him home in 2020. They can do the same to us if we push controversial or unpopular measures.

[Blue_true]

34. Good points made in your last paragraph.

In order to win, we need Independents mostly voting with us. A massive number of them tend to be Moderates, so when our side push policy that is toward the edge (even if right), we lose elections and end up not being able to do anything.

[beachbumbob]

6. the problem with extrapolation from party affiliation records is it glosses over the crossover votes

We know for a FACT that in 2016 a substantial number of registered democrats voted for Trump in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania. Of this group of people, we can believe that in 2020 many would come back for Biden. On the otherhand in 2020. WE KNOW there will be crossover votes from trump to Biden by registered republicans and this number can be significant in states like Florida and Arizona where the 60 and over GOP voter has figured out that trump is more than willing to see them fucking DIE to COVID.

We also KNOW that younger voters register in greater numbers as " Unaffiliated", we also KNOW the majority of this demographic DO NOT support GOP/Trump agenda

[kansasobama]

8. Good point beachcomb

In Iowa, looks like GOP has their screw loose. Improved support after the debates? Really!

[ooky]

13. That poll relies on a 26 point swing from Biden to Trump by independents in one month

from September to October. Biden going from being up 12 to down 14. That's simply not believable.

[beachbumbob]

23. It's more believable than not

[ooky]

24. On what basis?

What changed between September and October to explain a 26 point swing?

[Phoenix61]

9. Spot on! nt

[sunonmars]

7. I've said all along GOP are cannibalising ED votes as well in the EV.

[helpisontheway]

14. How much of a lead do we usually have at this point? Nt

[jcgoldie]

15. "Numbers are giving me some worries."

Susan Collins got nothin' on you.

[Autumn]

16. Rahm Emanuel said that no person has ever won the presidency losing the Independent voters.

Joe has those.

[greenjar_01]

17. MIRT

[Klaralven]

18. Registration is only meaningful for primary elections

People will register for one party or the other because there is a primary they are interested in voting in.

[Quixote1818]

21. They also expect some older Republican voters concerned about Covid to switch over. nt

[Thekaspervote]

22. Here's what Dave Wasserman of Cook Political and Harry Enten of 538 say about trying to

Project a winner via EV

Link to tweet

?s=21

[David__77]

27. I imagine Florida Democrats get more Democratic over time.

It happened in California years ago. There used to be more Republican voting Democrats here. The margin between the parties closed as some of those Democrats became Republicans. What was left was more solidly Democratic, and gains among new voters caused an expansion ultimately. Hopefully this is similar to Florida on some level.

[MoonlitKnight]

29. You can't make any determination in Florida based upon party registration

It’s a fool’s errand.

High turnout is good for Democrats. But it’s always close and this will be no different. A 1% win statewide is a landslide. This will be too close to call until late at night Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.

But we should know if Joe has a shot pretty early. And may have some confidence that he will win by 11, based on some key areas.

I do expect that Texas and Georgia get called for Joe before Florida. And Joe will win Florida by around 1%.

By 11 we should see Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota called for Joe. PA will be too early to call - or too close to call. AZ and Nevada will be called for Joe along with Ca. NC will still be too close. But by 11:30 the calls will be made on Texas and Georgia to put the stake through the heart of trumpism.

[dustyscamp]

42. We don't need Independents!!! /sarcasm

I hope most of them vote blue and aren't turned off by some Dems saying "we don't need their vote" or "we don't need to cater to them"