YouGuv "Already Voted" Polls

[Stallion]

NEW @YouGovAmerica/@ElectionsCenter Poll (LV, 10/13-21). Among those who have already voted:

WISCONSIN
Biden 73% (+47)
Trump 26%.

MICHIGAN
Biden 75% (+52)
Trump 23%.

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 87% (+79)
Trump 9%

https://t.co/5EJy3PjEou— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 26, 2020

[catbyte]

1. Sounds great, but how do they know what the breakdown is in Michigan if they

haven't even been allowed to open the ballots yet? We don't have early in-person voting.

I can't get the link to work.

[LisaL]

2. They polled people who already voted.

NT

[Buckeye_Democrat]

6. I assume they polled people who said...

... they already voted, like an early exit poll.

Link doesn't work for me either.

[coti]

3. Holy. Effing. Shit. nt

[Renew Deal]

4. PA is crazy!

What went wrong with the republican campaign there?

[LisaL]

7. Trump told them vote by mail is bad.

NT

[Marie Marie]

36. They are probably waiting to vote in person so that those votes get counted

immediately and he can declare victory in PA.

[relayerbob]

46. Only a bit less than 40% voted early

So, still a long way to go, unlike states like Texas where most of it is in already.

[JCMach1]

5. Wow. Trump cannibalized his vote by discouraging early voting

HUGE mistake

[Quixote1818]

9. GOP leaders were saying this early on. They knew it was a big mistake.

Lesson is that Trump is stupid and goes by instinct rather than listening to experts and people who know how elections work.

[LAS14]

19. Yup. I've been guessing/hoping that's the case for weeks. nt

[JCMach1]

20. This is the first real evidence and it's bad bad bad for GOP

It hits all down the ticket.

[Windy City Charlie]

21. If this holds up

If this holds up, it's going to be interesting to watch the GOP and Trump throw each under the bus.

[Renew Deal]

8. What is the share of voters by registered party? Because this might indiciate republicans are

voting for Biden.

[OnDoutside]

11. The shy Biden voter is quite likely in deep red counties, yes.

[Butterflylady]

40. I truly believe that.

[gristy]

10. Is that a phone poll or an internet poll?

Link doesn't work for me...

[triron]

27. I believe it is online. Not very reliable poll imo.

[Butterflylady]

41. I do YouGov polls all the time.

A lot since beginning of election seasons. One poll asks if I already voted and who I voted for. YouGov is very legit. You get gift cards after you hit a certain points amount. I've already gotten 2 $25.00 gift cards for Michaels and 2 $15.00 gift cards from Amazon. Anyone can sign up for the polls.

[radical noodle]

42. The YouGov polls that I've participated in are

sent in targeted emails. Not available to anyone online who wants to add a vote.

[forward2012inny]

12. Spam post?

Spam post with a virus link???

[Buckeye_Democrat]

13. National polling of "already voted" vs. "not yet voted"...

https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1322942840419291136

Assuming that about 2/3 of the votes have been cast already, it should be about 53% to 45% for Biden.

[LAS14]

22. It's hard to believe in the Trump "enthusiasm" factor if so many of them..

... are able to wait until Nov 3 given all of the coverage and excitement about early voting.

[LymphocyteLover]

25. good point!

[ProfessorGAC]

26. Also, That "Enthusiasm" Thing, Seems To Ignore...

...enthusiasm from dems & "no more Trump" voters.
I think that crowd has a great deal of motivation to enthusiastically vote for JB.

[LAS14]

38. Yup. I'm guessing a lot of those "enthusiasm" polls asked...

"Are you enthusiastic about Trump?"
"Are you enthusiastic about Biden?"

They didn't ask "Are you enthusiastic about getting rid of Trump?"

[triron]

23. Depends on who was polled (gender, age, race, etc)

[Buckeye_Democrat]

24. True.

I know nothing about how it was done.

A little algebra puts the total percentages close to most national polls.

[triron]

28. Far different from another alreaday voted vs yet to vote poll posted on DU. What's up?

[Buckeye_Democrat]

30. Don't know.

[triron]

32. The other poll done much later.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

33. Just saw the link you posted at the bottom.

The numbers are weird to me, per algebra.

If the "not yet voted" group is that close, the likely voters margin for Biden should be MUCH bigger. That would be fine by me, but the math is funny.

Edit: Unless more people will vote on election day, but the estimates are that most will have early-voted.

[triron]

37. 69-31 seems very large to me. I don't know how many had voted by Oct.28 though but my guess is

close to 1/2.

[Dream Girl]

14. Does this include mail in votes

[Buckeye_Democrat]

15. Any early voting, I assume. nt

[Quixote1818]

16. This was dated Oct. 26th. nt

[Thekaspervote]

17. Dotard thinks he's going to be ahead in a few places and declare victory

Instead he’s gonna be screaming that all votes need to be counted assuring himself that if they keep counting he will eventually pull ahead. That guy is dumber than a door stop

[LAS14]

18. Wo! How could so many Trump voters have stayed home for EV????????

[progressoid]

29. Too bad we couldn't have a big snow storm to keep the rest of the Trumpanzees home on tuesday.

[triron]

31. This is a relatively old poll. Check out this thread: Poll here Done much later.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214408987

[thesquanderer]

34. not comparable though... national poll vs. particular states (n/t)

[patphil]

35. I hope that is true.

One thing I do know is that in my house, in Chester, NY, it's Biden 2 and Trump 0.
Our votes are in.

[LAS14]

39. Did you record it in the OFFICIAL I VOTED thread???

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214258305

[Eyeball_Kid]

43. Don't believe it. This poll means nothing.

First, it’s from a week ago. I suspect we have skewed stats. This should NOT be seen as an indicator of future election results.

[warmfeet]

44. Well,

I took the YouGov poll today, from Minnesota.

I voted for Joe and Kamala in the third week of September. Does not matter (not in terms of now). Please, all Democrats who have not voted yet, vote. If you have voted, please help to get out the vote.

[Ilsa]

45. Praying for freak blizzard Tuesday morning, covering

90% of the nation.

[Doodley]

47. This is worrying.

[Blue Owl]

48. K&R

[BComplex]

49. That means republicans are voting for Biden in record numbers!!!

YAY!!!!!