No need to watch the returns Tuesday, this is how it'll go down.

[Drunken Irishman]

Hello.

For you old timers out there, you'll remember my calling the election mere days before the results (2008 and 2012). I did not do 2016 because I honestly didn't know what to make of the election and I didn't want to taint my 2-0 record.

But I'm gonna go all out on this and risk that undefeated record by giving you election night returns.

If you'd like, you can view my past election prediction posts here:

2008

2012

No jinx - no bravado. Just fun.

And off we go...

7:00 Eastern:

Polls close in the following states:

Georgia
Indiana
Kentucky
South Carolina
Virginia
Vermont

Of course, the big prize of this hour will be Georgia and there will be A LOT of talk about Georgia - what the turnout is, a mix of phone and polling location exit polls and how vital this state will be to President Trump's reelection. We will not get a call, obviously, as the networks will claim it's too close to call.

Indiana and South Carolina will be categorized as 'too early to call' but with a Trump lead.

Kentucky will be called for Trump and Vermont for Biden.

Virginia will be categorized as 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.

At 7:03, Trump has 8 electoral votes to Biden's 3.

Around 7:30, Indiana is called for Trump.

That gives Trump 19 electoral votes to Biden's 3.

At 7:30 Eastern, polls close in the following states:

North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia

Trump is declared the winner in West Virginia.

North Carolina and Ohio will be classified as 'too close to call'.

Trump has 24 electoral votes to Biden's 3.

As we close in on 8:00, South Carolina is called for Trump - giving him 33 electoral votes to Biden's 3. Of course, it looks and feels like a lopsided Trump win but...

8:00 Eastern:

Polls close in the following states:

Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Washington, D.C.

Trump is declared the winner in:

Alabama
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Tennessee

Biden is declared the winner in:

Connecticut
Delaware (HIS HOME STATE!)
Illinois
Maine (3 of 4 EV)
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Rhode Island
Washington, D.C.

Florida, which has now been counting ballots for an hour (most the state closes at 7 but networks won't make any level of a projection until 8:00 when the panhandle closes at 8:00), is too close to call - as is Pennsylvania.

New Hampshire is 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.

Missouri is 'too early to call' but with a Trump lead.

Biden has now taken the lead in the Electoral College: 78 to 66.

About an hour and a half after polls have closed, Virginia is called for Biden around 8:30 pm. That gives him 91 electoral votes.

The states that are either too early or too close to call at this hour:

Georgia
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Missouri
Florida
New Hampshire

As well as the 2nd Congressional District in Maine.

8:30 Eastern:

Arkansas closes and Trump is declared the winner.

Biden has 91 Electoral Votes to Trump's 72.

Right before 9:00, Missouri is called for Trump.

That gives him 82 Electoral Votes.

9:00 Eastern Time:

Polls have closed in the following states:

Arizona
Colorado
Kansas
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Trump is declared the winner in:

Kansas
Louisiana
Nebraska (4 of 5 EV)
North Dakota
South Dakota
Wyoming

Biden is declared the winner in:

New York

Minnesota, New Mexico and Colorado are 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.

Arizona is too close to call.

Michigan is too close to call, but a good amount of the state will have already started as a chunk of the state's polls closed an hour prior (similar to Florida).

Wisconsin is too close to call.

Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District is 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.

So, shortly after the 9:00 hour, Biden has 120 Electoral Votes and Trump has 109 - with 203 not yet called.

At this point, the election is going to start taking shape. Florida should mostly be in, I'd say around 80-90% counted, and there's going to be a narrative at play here - and we'll also see it in North Carolina and Georgia. It's at this hour that it becomes apparent Biden is winning where he needs to in Georgia and North Carolina but it's still too close to call in either state.

Biden is also strong in Ohio, though any lead he may have, built on the back of mail-in ballots, is iffy at best.

Steve Kornacki on MSNBC says, "I would much rather be in the Delaware camp right now than those sitting in the White House."

Trump tweets I AM WINNING BIG IN PENNSYLVANIA

He is not, in fact, winning big in Pennsylvania. In fact, in a twist, with Philadelphia and its suburbs, along with Alleghany County, reporting mail-in ballots at a faster than expected clip, Biden is actually staving off a red wave there.

But there's still uncertainty.
By 9:30 Eastern Time, Colorado is called for Biden. Shortly after, so is New Hampshire.

"Top Republicans admit that Donald Trump is not performing at the rate he needs to win 270 electoral votes, despite the President's claiming otherwise."

The betting markets have Biden a 90% chance of winning the presidency based on outstanding state totals.

10:00 Eastern:

Polls close in the following states:

Iowa
Montana
Nevada
Utah

Iowa is 'too close to call'.

Montana and Utah are 'too early to call' but with a Trump lead.

Nevada is 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.

There are 211 Electoral Votes still not called (and that isn't even counting the 85 that are still being decided in states where polls haven't closed).

Biden leads 133 to Trump's 109.

Trump tweets: I WILL WIN!

Shortly after 10:00 Eastern Time, Biden is declared the winner in Minnesota and New Mexico. He's now at 148 Electoral Votes.

Right before poll close on the west coast, Trump is declared the winner in Utah.

11:00 Eastern:

Polls have closed in the following states:

California
Idaho
Oregon
Washington

Trump is declared the winner in Idaho.

Biden is declared the winner in:

California
Oregon
Washington

Biden is now at 222 Electoral Votes. Trump 119.

At 11:30 Eastern, we have a big call to make. North Carolina has gone for Joe Biden. Biden is also declared the winner in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Netting him one vote.

Biden now has 238 Electoral Votes.

"The feeling in Delaware is very positive - they think they have the votes to win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania," MSNBC announces.

"The Trump Team has gone quiet, refusing to grant any interviews to the media," FOX reports.

At 11:45, Montana is called for Trump.

Nevada then breaks for Biden.

Biden now has 244 Electoral Votes to Trump's 122.

12:00 Eastern

Polls have closed in Hawaii. Biden is declared the winner.

BREAKING: MICHIGAN HAS BEEN CALLED FOR JOE BIDEN.

Joe Biden is now six Electoral Votes away from the presidency - leading Trump 264 to 122.

12:10 Eastern Time:

WE HAVE A MAJOR PROJECTION TO MAKE:

Joe Biden has won the state of Wisconsin. With their 10 Electoral Votes, Joe Biden has surpassed the 270 needed to be projected the President-Elect of the United States.

Trump tweets: FAKE NEWS! NOT ALL THE VOTES HAVE BEEN COUNTED! HOW CAN THE MEDIA DECLARE BIDEN THE WINNER WHEN THERE ARE STILL VOTES LEFT TO BE COUNTED? FRAUD!

"Republicans are urging President Trump to concede to Joe Biden," reports ABC News. However, "the President is not expected to concede the results."

"Speaking with a Trump campaign official, they claim they will fight for the integrity of the election process and make sure every valid vote is counted and those invalid votes are tossed - this election is not over."

BIDEN TO SPEAK TO THE NATION AS TRUMP REFUSES TO CONCEDE

TRUMP, IN FRENZIED WHITE HOUSE SPEECH, CLAIMS BIDEN'S VICTORY MAY BE RESULT OF FRAUD, WILL INVESTIGATE IN COMING DAYS

At 12:45 Eastern, Biden is declared the winner in Georgia, giving him 290 Electoral Votes.

And that is where we'll leave it - with 123 Electoral Votes up for grabs.

Biden leads in Pennsylvania and Arizona. Trump barely leads in Ohio and Iowa, while Texas and Florida are too close to call.

It won't matter - Biden is the victor.

[AkFemDem]

1. Sounds good to me. Whatever happened

To Georgia though?

[AkFemDem]

2. As a non Georgian

I have a somewhat ridiculous interest in seeing it flip!

[moonscape]

86. Popping the champagne already! n/t

[klook]

165. As a Georgian,

I have an intense interest in seeing it flip! Stacey Abrams got totally ripped off in 2018, and I want John Lewis’s legacy to be honored with a Biden win in Lewis’s adopted home state.

NOT TO MENTION seeing our noxious excuses for U.S. senators Perdue and Loeffler go down in Orange flames (and replaced by Jewish and Black Dems) would be sweet beyond belief!

[Captain Zero]

27. He says 12:45, Georgia called for Biden.

near the bottom.

[AkFemDem]

36. Yay!

[DownriverDem]

157. Michigan

Most of Michigan closes at 8. A small sliver near Wisconsin closes at 9. This is our first time with mail in/drop off voting. It will not be called on Tuesday night. I'm concerned and my husband thinks I'm crazy and says Biden will win in a landslide. This has really drove me crazy.

[pamdb]

194. michigan

Us as well. And the big orange pill of shit is coming to Grand Rapids tonight. These idiots have been lining up since 7:30 in the morning. Disgraceful. Such an embarrassment for Grand Rapids which is largely a democratic city. Not the suburbs and rural areas, but still.

[pamdb]

195. michigan

Us as well. And the big orange pill of shit is coming to Grand Rapids tonight. These idiots have been lining up since 7:30 in the morning. Disgraceful. Such an embarrassment for Grand Rapids which is largely a democratic city. Not the suburbs and rural areas, but still.

[AleksS]

3. Dang, it's like I was there!

Someone get this person a gig on TV!

Your keyboard to god's ears. Let it be so.

[Demsrule86]

5. sounds perfect!!!!!

[TxDemChem]

6. I feel like I just read

The most intense and fascinating novel ever! My heart was racing, my eyes blinked more rapidly. I hope it plays out just as you put it. Definitely bookmarking this to use as a pick-me-up in the following days.

[ace3csusm]

74. me too thanks I needed that

Loved it

[MustLoveBeagles]

7. We'll see how this shakes out on Tuesday

I think you'll end up being right about most of it. Bookmarked.

[babylonsister]

8. Great fun, thanks! nt

[Ananda62]

9. Bookmarking this

I was going to distract myself until 8 pm PT and then turn on the news. I hope you are right!

[gristy]

10. Bookmarked!

Thanks so much for this!

[Hassin Bin Sober]

11. Now I need a smoke.

And I don’t smoke.


Yes! Yes!

[louis-t]

162. "This isn't a hospital! It's an insane asylum!"

Oh wait, wrong movie. "Call me when you have no class."

One more: "Maybe you can come over and help me straighten out my Longfellow."

[JohnnyLib2]

12. Bookmarked! This will make it more fun.

[Trenzalore]

13. PA & MI won't be called to Wednesday

They cannot count any absentee ballots until Election Day.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. MI passed a law this year allowing counties with populations bigger than 25,000 to start processing

...a day before the election.

I think Biden wins Michigan by 7-10 points, so, the results will be known even if all the votes haven't been counted.

As for PA, I left it out for that reason.

[NJCher]

116. Did you see 60 Minutes sun night?

I think they said AZ has a high percentage of the vote in and they will be announcing at 7 p.m.

I was on the phone so not sure I got that correct. The show is available online.

[Drunken Irishman]

119. Arizona will have a lot of ballots counted...

A lot will depend on how many outstanding absentee ballots there are that were received on election day. That's what put Kyrsten Sinema over the top, as she was actually losing throughout election night and the final week of the election. Why? Because 1 million early voting ballots were still not counted by that Wednesday and didn't come in until basically a week later (that Monday when she was declared the victor).

So, the question is how many of those early voters (people who voted early, but didn't drop off their ballot until election day) will be outstanding. Right now, Arizona is at like 86% its turnout from 2016. So, hopefully that means there's fewer ballots.

And while the senate race was close, it wasn't super, super close. Sinema ended up winning by 2.4 points.

[WSHazel]

85. I think Philadelphia is going to report as much as it can as fast as it can

They can process a lot of ballots between 7 am and 8 pm on Tuesday.

[crickets]

14. That was intense.

I can't wait to see it -- & hope you're right, or at least close. Thanks for giving me a TV schedule, because there is no way I'm watching the coverage all night.

[C_U_L8R]

15. I think you'll be right.

[Roland99]

16. 12:10am is perfect re: its tweet

[Roland99]

17. And I bet this becomes the most bookmarked thread ever at DU!

[bdamomma]

18. Wow

thank you.

I'm bookmarking this, and was getting nervous reading that.

[calimary]

40. Shit - so was I.

Tension rising by the minute.

Bookmarking this thread, too.

[TwilightZone]

19. Bookmarked. :)

[Ferrets are Cool]

20. Please, please, please crow as soon as you are proven correct

[brush]

22. Brilliant, D.I. Very entertaining. Thanks for doing this.

[My Pet Orangutan]

23. Nope. MI and Wi will be called for Biden by 11:00 Eastern.

538:
MI - 95% Biden
WI - 93% Biden

[Nitram]

24. Thanks for the well-thought-out projection. Encouraging.

I do believe Biden will win - but I know I thought the same when Bush won his second term and Trump won his first. We'll just have to wait and see.

[dem4decades]

25. 9:00 AM Eastern, dem4decades pops a bottle of champagne with his wife.

That's the only thing missing in that timeline.

[Mr. Ected]

26. Thank you for assuring me in advance, if Biden is down 33 to 3

That he can still stomp the shit out of Trump.

[SoonerPride]

28. If it goes like this so will buy you a bottle of scotch

Or wine

Or soda

Whatever you want!

[samnsara]

29. love it!

[liberalla]

30. That was very enjoyable! Thank you!

I so hope it is decided that night!

[Captain Zero]

31. AND not to mention, but Biden will have a HUGE popular vote victory.

Nobody really likes this sack of shit, trump.

[apcalc]

32. Impressive ! Thank you!

[George II]

33. That's great - nice job, very entertaining read, thanks. Without as much detail.....

....that's about the way I see most of it. The best thing about this is that it tantalizes trump into thinking he still has a shot through most of the evening. I like the idea that the trump team will go quiet and refuse to give interviews!!!!

One thing, though - I think it may be called an hour or so earlier than 12:45, maybe even as soon as shortly after 11:00.

Should it not go that way, I'll be sure to have my car gassed up, packed, and parked in the direction of Canada (not really)!

[My Pet Orangutan]

34. MI - 95% Biden, WI - 93% Biden (538) Called by 11PM .

[Silent3]

35. Damned if that doesn't sound incredibly plausible to me

Well done!

[Stuart G]

37. I know this sounds ridiculous..but by 9pm ET the election will be called for Biden.

The results will be so clear, that the west coast won't matter..You heard it right here..on Sunday, 9:45pm ET.
It might even be 8:30pmET...Why? the polls of those who voted will project that..Trump may not
get more than 40%...Just wait and see....Maybe 35%...

No one will have to wait past 10:30 ET....Maybe even 10pm ET. Again....
......... polls of voters who voted will make this clear......Why?..

...Trump make buffoons look like college professors..........ant eaters are smarter than Donald Trump...

...............no offense meant to those that like ant eaters......

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

47. The networks will wait until the polls close on the west coast

before declaring a winner. They have never fully lived down declaring Ronald Reagan the winner in 1980, causing hundreds, maybe thousands of voters to leave the lines they were standing in on the west coast. The real issue was all of the down ballot races.

[Olafjoy]

38. Wow!!! This was so exciting!! Bookmarked

[ColoradoBlue]

39. Wow

It's crazy how many butterflies were in my stomach reading that. I hope it happens just as you say!

[calimary]

45. Welcome to DU, ColoradoBlue!

I know how you feel! I grew more and more nervous as I read down through the OP!

I often read the end of the book because I don't like surprises and I wanna know how it ends! That just makes the getting-there all the more interesting, imo. But I didn't skip ahead to the end, for this one. Sure wish I could do that in real life - to breathe a little easier on Tuesday night.

I'm not gonna have a single cuticle left...

[grantcart]

41. Outstanding, reasonable and entertaining. One question

Will grantcart get lucky with Mrs grantcart? Will we be too close to call? What time will we enter the critical period to declare victory in the Conjugal College?

[Mystery sage]

42. That's a really beautiful time machine you got there.

Thank you for sharing with us.

[Stinky The Clown]

43. Well thought out. But even if not exactly right, we have other paths to victory.

I like your scenario.

[Liberal In Texas]

44. You make as much sense as about anything else I've seen.

I hope you're spot on on this one.

[cannabis_flower]

129. I hope they are wrong about

Texas being too close to call. I hope most of those new voters who voted early are Democrats and Trump people are overconfident and don’t show up.

[BComplex]

152. Me, too, cannabis_flower. I hope Texas blows trump out of the race, and dems take

over the Texas house!

Then I want to see Florida toss the republicans out.

That's my wish. It's big. But I still wish it.

[LostinRed]

46. Bookmarked

Love it hope you get your third perfect prediction. Here’s to 3-0

[IronLionZion]

48. I hope so.

I like the idea of Florida not being the big kingmaker they always try to be and Georgia going blue. Biden was nominated to take back the great lakes states and I think he will do it. It would be sweet to win Texas too.

I hope it is a Dem sweep for Senate too. If we lose one, it will be Doug Jones in Alabama. Then President Biden can appoint him to a cabinet post or Attorney General.

[Hamlette]

49. thanks for all this. It will be helpful on election night

[SunSeeker]

50. From your lips to God's ears. nt

[IrishEyes]

51. I won't be home until 10:30pm so I won't be able to watch the results until then.

I want to be watching when Biden is declared the winner.

[Ellipsis]

52. BOOKMARKED and Wow (Truly impressive And a tad obsessive)...

Last edited Sun Nov 1, 2020, 11:03 PM - Edit history (3)

...as I have been.

On the money methinks.


Hopefully after this both of us will take a sabbatical from politics with our favorite beverage of choice.

[FakeNoose]

198. Pennsylvania will def. go for Biden

... but unfortunately we won 't know that on Tuesday night. I'm thinking later in the day on Wednesday Pennsylvania will announce results, after all the hoopla is over, of course.

Joe will win and I will get no sleep until it's called.

[mikelgb]

53. I got chills when I got to 12:10 in your projection

I really hope I get those same chills on Tuesday!

Thanks

[Rice4VP]

54. Virginia will be called at 7. We've been

early voting in person since September 18. Over 2.7M votes have been cast and Biden is ahead by double digits in every poll. We were the first state to have long voting lines

[spooky3]

57. You may well be right, but in the past the largest county didn't report its

results until the end of the evening, and since the county is very blue and the contest was tight to that point, they couldn’t call it. Biden does have a larger poll margin than in 2016.

Also: mail votes won’t be counted until polls close.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wusa9.com/amp/article/news/verify/verify-when-are-mail-in-ballots-counted-in-dc-maryland-and-virginia/65-291c301d-ec42-4b37-9f63-6be40775e534

[cry baby]

55. That was fun! nt

[Pepsidog]

56. Reads like a thriller. Great job.

[ailsagirl]

58. You put a helluva lot of work into this-- thank you!!

[nolabear]

59. Thanks. I'll remember not to freak out early on.

Well done!

[MontanaMama]

60. Bookmarked.

I was seriously fighting tears the whole way through your OP. I am so anxious. All I could do this weekend was rake the yard of every single leaf that hit the ground. I’m more OCD than normal about leaves in my yard. It gave me something to do other than obsess about the cliff we are all standing on.

[cilla4progress]

64. I'll be in bed by 7

Knocked out by a cocktail of Marijuana and alcohol.

Wake me when it's over.

Don't want to get my hopes up.

[MontanaMama]

69. I told my guys that

I would be making a very simple dinner on Tuesday...early. If things start to go south, I will be in my bed and don’t try to tell me things will be okay. My hopes are up but I am scared to death. Last night at the Halloween bonfire on my street, every single person around the fire was quite vocal about their anxiety and worry for this election. Light a candle c4p, smudge with some sage...anything we can do to help us get through the next couple days, friend.

[cilla4progress]

80. Sweet, thank you!

My dear daughter is having to spend this time alone at her Montana home - quarantining! She got exposed to someone who tested positive at work! Fortunately, no symptoms so far.

So hard.

[MontanaMama]

83. Universe be with your girl.

Fingers crossed she will stay well. Montana is on fire with Covid now.

[cilla4progress]

94. I know.

😔


Thank you!

[ancianita]

102. So sorry to hear this.

Everything feels like too much now. I hope she weathers it.

[cilla4progress]

202. So far,

so good. She's devastated to be alone on election night - wish I could be with her! She says most of her friends aren't as political as her anyway. She's really worried. RBG's death hit her hard!

I'll never forget the call I got from her on the morning after the 2016 election. She just cried, said she couldn't look the students in the eye. She was a parapro for an autistic 5th grader, at that time. 💙

[BrightKnight]

199. I went to bed early last time and

Woke up to what we have now.

[dchill]

61. Hey! You're not drunk all the time, are you!

That's a pretty detailed prediction.

[Prof.Higgins]

62. Brilliant exposition and lucid thinking. Muchas gracias! nt

[MoonchildCA]

63. OMG! I hope you are psychic...

[liberal_mama]

65. Wow, that was fun to read!

I sure hope that you are right.

[somaticexperiencing]

66. Oh, I do hope so! Thank you for all this work. Meanwhile, phonebanking.

[FailureToCommunicate]

67. Well done DI ! Saved to savor again in two days.

[Poiuyt]

68. Great analysis

I don't think WI will be called quite that early, and I think GA will go to Trump because Georgian Republicans are so good at cheating. Otherwise, I agree.

[lindysalsagal]

70. Ok w me!

[flibbitygiblets]

71. Epic post! You made Mr. Giblets cry tears of joy, not an easy feat.

[Mme. Defarge]

72. Bookmarked!

[HubertHeaver]

73. Bookmarked

Will follow along on Tuesday night, Wednesday morning. I think you are accurate. I don't follow it as closely because I tend to get too involved. I've already had one heart attack, I don't need another.

I am expecting/hoping Texas goes big for Biden early causing the Orange one to have a Covid-related heart attack making Pence #46. Lame duck his entire term.

[Trueblue Texan]

75. This is an exciting read...

I hope this is the way it will go. Crossing my fingers.

[AlexSFCA]

76. great level of detail

I believe Biden will win AZ. Not sure about GA but if voter registration rolls is not a big issue this time, then it is very possible. Kemp was ahead by just a fraction of a percent with at least 400k dem ballots thrown out. AZ doesn’t have the voter suppression nonsense and that’s why I believe Biden will win there. Of course, if Biden wins Georgina by Wednesday mornin, trump may actually concede at that time.

[Roland99]

77. 49 hours til President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris!

[SharonClark]

78. I could hear Brian William's voice as I read it.

[cbdo2007]

79. Sounds good, but you forgot....

Trump tweeting that massive fraud and voter irregularities have been found in key swing states. He and AG Barr will announce a major investigation into it with the help of the FBI.

He has too many tools at his disposal and is planning something big.

The my bet is that on Friday, after 2 full days of hell, Pelosi and Pence will announce that hey are implementing the 25th amendment and Pence will take over as President immediately due to increasing threats from Trump. Pence will give him a full pardon along with his kids to all Federal charges. Pence will concede to Biden on Friday immediately after taking charge and will announce Nikki Haley as his VP making her the first female VP and minority VP in history.

[HubertHeaver]

99. Nikki will never be approved by congress.

No need to approve her. If pence dies the Speaker of the House assumes the Presidency.

[H2O Man]

81. Recommended.

Outstanding! I really enjoyed reading this. Very well done!

[TygrBright]

84. New Mexico's 3 EVs will be called for Biden around 10 pm EST, possibly earlier. Bank on it. n/t

[Quixote1818]

118. NM has 5 EV's not 3 but I agree it will be called very early after polls close there. nt

[Joinfortmill]

87. Very cool.

[SCantiGOP]

88. Damn you!

You cut it off 10 minutes too soon.
At 12:55 Jaime Harrison is declared the winner of the S.C. Senate seat.
Lindsey Graham concedes, and says that the President should also.

[world wide wally]

89. Works for me

And now we got it in writing!

[BobTheSubgenius]

90. That is one thorough and well-considered breakdown.

I like it a lot! Nice job.

[Jon King]

91. Well done!

That was an amazing job! Dems are always the most talented people, inventors, artists, singers, athletes, thinkers, etc. In this case, the OP is a very talented writer and prognosticator. Honestly, I have tuned out Trump and his cult already, just boring people with zero good ideas and zero valuable talents.

[RestoreAmerica2020]

92. Riveting! Followed your timeline, state by state analysis --Biden wins--damn going to be quite

..a night, especially with odious#45 crying the entire time.

Thanks..going to save post, follow and tick off play by play as night progresses as polls close and ballots are counted.

Have to say your post was entertaining; have been following varied maps showing states Clinton won--now on Biden's column; states that lean or leaning blue as well as Biden's efforts to shore up blue wall states that somehow went for a$$ in 2016..what was it a collective 77,000 votes somehow were ...? Oh well one day wel'l find out how they skimmed off those votes].

Anyway, this time it's going in our favor-Biden wins, we keep House and gain majority in Senate. Read, heard pollsters predicting Biden with over 350 electoral votes--which will take a few days to tabulate--that would give that MF, GOP a good kick in the nalgas [butt] for subjecting us to almost 4 yrs of sheer hell.

Fuck. Election night is going to be one hell of a night!

[Tom Rivers]

93. Bookmarked

Looks beautiful! I certainly won't be complaining if it plays out that way. Please Dems keep GOTVing and let's make it a reality!

[JohnnyRingo]

95. Bookmarked

I hope you're right.

[WSHazel]

96. Nice work

My only quibble is that if Biden is winning by 10 nationally, there will be some quicker calls in races like Michigan where they can start counting tomorrow.

The only states that will drag past midnight is where there is either a huge outstanding vote to be counted that is expected to shrink the gap or the race is within 1%. I think Biden will win NC and AZ by more than that, and roughly 80% of both states should be reported within about an hour of close since they can count early.

[yellowdogintexas]

125. Texas count will essentially be done before midnight.

Our mail in ballots will be counted by the time the polls close with results posted with the in person early voting.

[StevieM]

97. I predict that Trump will lose in a landslide, 413-125. Trump will declare victory anyway.

He will announce that there has been massive voter fraud, and therefore Biden is disqualified. Trump will say that he is the first candidate in history to win 538-0.

[burrowowl]

98. Book marked

[Progressive Jones]

100. K & R !!! Excellent analysis !!! nt

[AllyCat]

101. I just want to get home before the cult starts shooting up the place.

I might stay at work that night if it is crazy when I get off work at midnight.

[lucca18]

103. Wow! That was wonderful!

Thank you for all the work you put into this.

Since I will be too nervous to watch on Tuesday night, this was a great read.
Joe Biden, our next 46th President of the United States!

[sakabatou]

104. Here's hoping

[PatrickforO]

105. As the Emperor told Luke, "So be it, Jedi!" I've bookmarked this post for

reference on election night.

I suspect you're right, but I have knocked on wood, superstitious thing that I am.

[njhoneybadger]

106. Dam that's some good work.

Well done

[Iggo]

107. Kick.

[Blue Owl]

108. I'm visualizing it...

[coti]

109. This sounds right.

Last edited Mon Nov 2, 2020, 01:26 AM - Edit history (1)

I think the MI, WI, NC and AZ combo will be the killer (to well beyond 270).

[TryLogic]

110. Here's my off the wall prediction:

Trump will not actually be at the White House. He will be at Mara Lago. As soon as the writing is on the wall, he will sneak out and head for Russia to escape justice, hundreds of law suits, and dozens of bankruptcies.

[Lock him up.]

111. Not to Russia: Too much Polonium there. More like Saudi Arabia or the UAE (Dubai or Abu Dhabi).

The CIA will then design a plan to activate Seal Team Six to get them and bring them back to face long overdue JUSTICE.

[MFM008]

112. Your killing me

But i think this may be close to reality
Although they need to start calling some of them uncalled States pretty quickly....

[Fiendish Thingy]

113. Well, you know I gotta bookmark this for Tuesday, glad I won't be up late on the West Coast. Nt

[NoMoreRepugs]

114. DI - I look forward to looking at your prognostication Tues nite!!

[ancianita]

115. Thanks, DI! That's it. I can't be exhausted twice in one week so I'm going with your prediction.

I'll have a drink, a smoke, grab a book and head to bed Tuesday night.

I'm too chicken to sit through anything but highlights the next day.

This was awesome!

[cilla4progress]

178. My plan, exactly!

In 2016 I went to bed early - even leaving guests downstairs watching the results roll in! I was overcome with a fatigue I've never felt.before. I've since learned it was a panic response (vasovagal, I believe)!

I was tipped off as we watched early returns (I'm on the west coast) by the HACK AND TAKEDOWN of DU! It was my 1st inkling that something was terribly wrong...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

117. Wow. Extraordinarily impressive that you pulled this together

Bravo! How long did that take you?

[HipChick]

120. Picking up some Guinness for Tues and bookmarking this..

[CaliforniaPeggy]

121. Bookmarking! And even though I am on the West Coast, I plan to stay up quite late!

Loved your rundown of results! Well thought out and soooo thorough!

Thank you so much.

[AmericanCanuck]

122. I think Florida will be declared sooner.

[James48]

123. Nope.

The sheer volume of absentees outstanding is going to slow your timeline WAAAY down,

I will be surprised if we have a winner known before at least noon on Wednesday.

Or later.

Likely the same outcome, but NOT at midnight Tuesday night!

[Drunken Irishman]

124. Na. We will. Only way we don't is if Biden loses GA, FL & NC...

...plus the margins in PA, WI and MI are within two or three points. Take Michigan. They ruled counties with populations over 25,000 can begin processing mail-in ballots tomorrow (Monday). If Biden wins by 7-10 points, they'll call it for him. If it's much narrower than that, then you're right.

[smb]

201. Not Really

Only a few states have the stupid rules against pre-counting early votes -- most of them will have the totals (a much larger percentage of the total this time) mostly ready to report as soon as the polls close.

(Getting rid of such rules across the board ought to be one of the national-standards reforms the Dems ought to enact once we take both houses and the Presidency.)

[honest.abe]

126. Impressive!

I think you have nailed it. I might be a bit more optimistic on my predictions but you probably have it right since the networks are going to be very cautious making calls Tuesday night.

Really enjoyed reading this.. only wished you finished all the way through to see the final totals. I guess that’s too much to ask!

Well done!

[Hermit-The-Prog]

127. A friendly reminder about celebratory libations (some are better than others) ...

Support your union brothers and sisters:

https://aflcio.org/Beer-Wine

[niyad]

131. Thank you for this.

[SweetieD]

128. Great analysis!!

[niyad]

130. Bookmarking

[srose58089]

132. Trump rally today in North Carolina sets tone for his sinking campaign

&feature=youtu.be&t=1&fbclid=IwAR2sfJVT6Iy5hMOe2ldGnK3Pv2DCtBF5-Rbjge05y9X7hsWohV544C3J2ko

Theme song to Titanic plays at Trump rally. I think Florida will be called early for Biden and the Titanic sinks into the ocean.

[UCmeNdc]

133. This will be fun to follow. Thanks for the hard work!

Hope your 100% correct!

[634-5789]

134. This is great...one exception...

Wisconsin will not be in play long...Biden gets it.

[rizlaplus]

135. Now that's what I call

a solid prediction.

I don't think Iowa is gonna go Biden though!

Overall though it's an exciting read.

[LeftInTX]

136. I hope so

I agree with the time: 12 AM

[GoneOffShore]

137. I'm keeping this thread open in my tabs.

[panader0]

138. Nice work DI!

[NurseJackie]

139. Very exciting narrative! Thanks for sharing that!

Fingers crossed that it's all this and more!!

[bucolic_frolic]

140. Wow that was a lot of crystal ball work!

As long as Biden holds Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and then wins Arizona and Nevada, he wins. That's 270, assuming New Hampshire and Virginia remain blue, and he gets what he needs in Nebraska and Maine. At this point, reasonable assumptions.

That is without PA, NC, IA, FL, TX.

[ucrdem]

141. Love it!

Especially where Trumpolini does a 180 and refuses to end it on election night

[scarytomcat]

142. thanks nice work

kick

[jimlup]

143. It would be fun to run this as an Election Results thread

and comment in real time about the predictions. You could run the segments as each time stamp passes....

then let people comment as the specific times pass.

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

144. Slainte!

[jaxexpat]

145. Wait a minute, what about the other states?

What's the count in Prehensilvania or Pensicolitis, Tejacux and New Maldrid. Don't those folks get a count too? The people of Yankstonia and Yellowish should have a voice. And what of the hundreds of others? Like Cheesy and how could you forget the proud state of Idonvoten? I'd say you need to look at a map next time, buddy.

[Pacifist Patriot]

146. Bookmarked! I think Florida will be called between 11-12.

Can't wait to read along with this on Tuesday night. 😁

[DIVINEprividence]

147. This is an amazing post - brilliant

I think this is how it plays out. Based on your timeline I am avoiding watching returns until 9:30 pm and save myself a ton of stress. Drinking cocktails and listening to punk rock until then. Thank you for this. Very insightful.

[dixiechiken1]

148. And they all lived happily ever after. 😊😊😊

[TNNurse]

149. I appreciate your efforts

but after 2016 and Trump's threats for 4 years, I will not believe any poll except the final one.

[Mosby]

150. This could be your first journal entry.

[icnorth]

151. Counting on you going 3 for 3...

I downloaded your prognosis into a text file to print and follow as the evening progresses. Prognosticators who have a 1,000 batting average always pique my interest but I hope you don't mind if I do a side by side check off with the networks... ☺

PS: Wishing, hoping for a Biden/Harris slam dunk. From Canada, a toast to all of you campaigning, getting people to the polls and voting to a-right a ship of state listing far to starboard.

[BarbD]

181. How do you download into a text file?

I'm technologically impaired.

[Borchkins]

153. Happy that Wisconsin puts him over.

Even if it is imaginary at this point!

We have a lot to atone for.

[oldsoftie]

154. I'll see it when I wake up in the moring. Or the mid-evening bathroom break

I've long said that i wanted to see trump suddenly be screaming that "we have to wait till ALL the votes are counted!!", after screaming for months that we should know ON election day

[brooklynite]

155. I think your assessment fails on the West Coast

We know how it will play out eventually, but the networks will be much more cautious this year, and none of the mail-in ballot States will have early counts.

[mcar]

156. This seems like a realistic scenario

Down to the media quotes.

[honest.abe]

158. Here's DI's map as of 12:45 AM election night

Off by one somewhere... maybe Maine.

Its interesting that Joe has a very plausible road to victory without PA. However I believe he is going to win PA, as well as FL, AZ and maybe TX an, once all the ballots are counted.

[Beringia]

159. This is Great. I hope you're right

[Merlot]

160. Thank you - now I can tune out on Tuesday night.

I'm expecting results by early Wednesday morning anyhow.

[ariesgem]

161. Love it!

Will be back on this thread tomorrow for the DU PARTY!

[yuiyoshida]

163. I hope you are right and

Trump doesn't steal this election.. four more years and America will be dead.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

164. Thanks for saving me from watching all that. LOL! n/t

[zaj]

166. You left out: "At 7:04, Trump declares victory"

[smb]

203. AM or PM? nt

[zaj]

204. hahaha!

Good call.

[RobinA]

167. Seeing As How

I'm from PA, this works for me. I would like nothing more than for us to be taken out of the mix, because I know it is going to take us forever to count. I do NOT want to go to sleep Tuesday not knowing who won.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

168. Make it so!

*fingers crossed*

If Florida, Ohio, or especially Texas fall to Biden, it's incontrovertibly over for Trumpy

[Aviation91]

169. I sure as hell hope you are right!!

[LiberalFighter]

170. You forgot to add that Trump after Republicans fail to have Trump concede.

He will appear on the balcony of the WH.
He will take off his suit so that he can become Superman.
He will take a running leap to fly off the balcony.

[calimary]

174. And then go SPLAT down onto the ground below.

As the song says, "I can dream, can't I?"

[BarbD]

182. Great scenario.

[lettucebe]

171. Printed this out with check marks to use as my cheatsheet

while watching! Thanks so much, it'll be more fun now

[wryter2000]

172. Thank you!

Lord, I hope you're right.

I want to watch Trump yell that every vote must be counted. Sweet irony.

[calimary]

173. I feel the need to bookmark this one.

[Catherine Vincent]

175. I'm not planning on watching TV at all Tuesday evening and night

[PatSeg]

176. Wow, you put a lot of effort into that

Very impressive!

[malaise]

177. Fabulous

Rec

[COL Mustard]

179. Fascinating Analysis

I have a bottle of Jameson's that may not survive the night, depending on how things go...and I hope you're correct!

[spanone]

180. ⭐️⭐️⭐️K&R ⭐️⭐️⭐️

[Clearly fogged in]

183. Thank you - bookmarked - k&r nt

[GOPBasher]

184. I'd love this so much that

I would even tolerate Trump's infantile, all-caps shit tweets. However, one thing, in states the states that won't even come close to finishing the tallying of the mail-in ballots -- including several that won't even start counting them until after the polls close -- how can anyone make any calls? I know mail-in ballots were part of other elections, but nowhere near to this degree.

[Rob_NC]

185. Not seeing it ...

...but will be watching.

[Roc2020]

186. Just curious, how many Presidential election night returns have you seen?

pretty detailed. I will keep a close eye on your post tomorrow night

[ChazII]

187. If I heard the news correctly, Arizona has already started

counting the early ballots.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

188. So, with your detailed play-by-play, I can actually start drinking now.

Thank you so much. I'm cracking open the bourbon.

[bdamomma]

189. kicking for visibility

nt

[Javaman]

190. K&R nt

[robbedvoter]

191. Bookmarked. I won't know what they comment on tv as I am doing on line only

But this seems realistic.

[angel823]

192. bookmarking

and hoping you are exactly correct, except Texas gets called for Biden.

A girl can dream, can't she?

[CountryFirst]

193. made me laugh

well done!

[Ligyron]

196. I'll go ahead and call Florida for Biden now absolutely smoking Trump.

Leaving his campaign and the donald himself a smoldering ruin of embarrassment in front of the whole world. The few million Trumpanzees will be in total shock as their media has been lying to them as usual telling them everything is looking good for another trump victory when reality, as usual, has been another matter entirely.

World leaders and countries across the globe will jam President elect Joe Biden's phone lines for weeks attempting to congratulate him and offer reconciliation with the coming US leadership at the earliest possible opportunity.

In the following days the trump's campaign will make a half hearted attempt in the courts and elsewhere to change the outcome of the election but they will fail. The margin of victory is far too great and PTB wanted him gone anyway.

A few members of various "militias" and a couple proud boys will be shot and many others arrested for attacking a few Starbucks, several public libraries and scattered PBS stations nationwide.

Within a month or two, trump will be arrested and taken into custody at his club, Merde del Lardo by Palm Beach County sheriff deputies for extradition to New York or DC to stand trial for various crimes he's committed both before and during office. Former members of his staff and "friends" will testify against him and civil suits for sexual assault, rape and fraudulent financial matters will eventually bankrupt both himself and his organizations.

He will probably die within a couple years from worsening health and heart related problems a broken man and go straight to Hell. Even though it didn't exist before. Those who supported him wholeheartedly will attempt to disown him and rewrite history but will be shunned and shamed nonetheless finding reelection and future employment impossible. A few will commit suicide blaming Trump and everyone but themselves just like their hero would. They too will go to the newly created Hell.

[USALiberal]

197. Kick

[proud patriot]

200. Man that was so much fun reading

going to be even more fun tomorrow

[Polybius]

205. What's your prediction on the final number of EV's and spread?

I think Biden gets 315 EV's, and wins 52-47, with 1% going to the rest.

[akbacchus_BC]

206. I hope your prognosis is correct. I don't think

I can relive 2016 all over again. I so believed Kornacki when he seemed so sure Mrs. Clinton would win. Keeping my fingers and toes crossed for a Biden/Harris win.

[Yavin4]

207. Bookmarking for later. n/t

[Roland99]

208. Kickety kick

[USALiberal]

209. Kick

[Lock him up.]

210. Kickin' (n/t)

[robbedvoter]

211. Using it as a template: so far, ahead with Virginis being called for Biden

Everything else on schedule

[robbedvoter]

213. See? Ahead

Link to tweet

[RexLipton]

212. So far, so good!

[Clearly fogged in]

214. Kick

[karin_sj]

215. Amazing!

How spot on this is so far!!

[bullwinkle428]

216. Predicted at 8:30 EST : Biden-91, Trump-66. Actual : Biden-85, Trump-55.

Very good, Grasshopper!

[Drunken Irishman]

218. I am going to be off tonight, unfortunately. Biden is underperforming what I expected.

[robbedvoter]

217. Improvement: NM is called for Biden

[dchill]

219. My respect grows with each passing moment!

[robbedvoter]

220. Improvement: Colorado called for Biden by 🦊

instead of too early...

[csziggy]

221. You're pretty much on the timeline

10:00 Eastern:

Polls close in the following states:

Iowa
Montana
Nevada
Utah

Iowa is 'too close to call'.

Montana and Utah are 'too early to call' but with a Trump lead.

Nevada is 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.

There are 211 Electoral Votes still not called (and that isn't even counting the 85 that are still being decided in states where polls haven't closed).

Biden leads 133 to Trump's 109.

Trump tweets: I WILL WIN!

Shortly after 10:00 Eastern Time, Biden is declared the winner in Minnesota and New Mexico. He's now at 148 Electoral Votes.

Right before poll close on the west coast, Trump is declared the winner in Utah.

Utah was just called for Trump.

The Associated Press has Joe Biden with 131 EV and Trump with 108!

[Drunken Irishman]

222. Yes but I was way off with important calls: Biden winning North Carolina & Michigan being called.

So, my prediction is going to miss by a lot. Biden isn't winning the election tonight.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

223. Bummer. But why isn't he going to win if he pulls out MI WI and PA?

[Drunken Irishman]

224. Because they're not going to be called tonight.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

225. Ok. But there's no way trump's hate rallies could erase the leads

Biden had in those state polls, surely. Even if it is tomorrow. Jeez no wonder trump wanted it called tonight. He or his staff deviously brilliant so far.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

226. Can Biden win w/o AZ?

[Drunken Irishman]

227. He'll win Arizona. I am less confident about the rustbelt states.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

228. If he steals I think he'll steal WI. Just because I heard him

say something months ago. It made me stop work and think wow, need to to watch that. He can NEVER keep a secret. So if Biden wins MI PA and AZ he's got it? Oh and then there was the question why trump was spending time in that Omaha district. JHC it's like he's always been one step ahead of us.

[UCmeNdc]

229. Trump is always one step ahead.

He uses the news media to guide his forces and their actions.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

233. I always get flamed for saying this but sometimes I am

In awe with his devious yet strategic moves. Like he pulled his ads from FL early. How did he know he'd win it? Maybe our side knows everything he does and we just don't broadcast it. Or does he have better number crunchers?

Not in any way praising him. Ok.

[UCmeNdc]

230. It is how he wins. The media communicates to his people on the ground how to act in unison.

[UCmeNdc]

231. It all comes back to PA

[Ferrets are Cool]

232. You were closer than some of the "experts"

Just off on a few things and the timing. But, we WILL win this thing.