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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNew Yorker - Why Trump Can't Afford to Lose
The President has survived one impeachment, twenty-six accusations of sexual misconduct, and an estimated four thousand lawsuits. That run of good luck may well end, perhaps brutally, if Joe Biden wins.
By Jane Mayer
November 1, 2020
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/11/09/why-trump-cant-afford-to-lose
Two of the investigations into Trump are being led by powerful state and city law-enforcement officials in New York. Cyrus Vance, Jr., the Manhattan District Attorney, and Letitia James, New Yorks attorney general, are independently pursuing potential criminal charges related to Trumps business practices before he became President. Because their jurisdictions lie outside the federal realm, any indictments or convictions resulting from their actions would be beyond the reach of a Presidential pardon. Trumps legal expenses alone are likely to be daunting. (By the time Bill Clinton left the White House, hed racked up more than ten million dollars in legal fees.) And Trumps finances are already under growing strain. During the next four years, according to a stunning recent Times report, Trumpwhether reëlected or notmust meet payment deadlines for more than three hundred million dollars in loans that he has personally guaranteed; much of this debt is owed to such foreign creditors as Deutsche Bank. Unless he can refinance with the lenders, he will be on the hook. The Financial Times, meanwhile, estimates that, in all, about nine hundred million dollars worth of Trumps real-estate debt will come due within the next four years. At the same time, he is locked in a dispute with the Internal Revenue Service over a deduction that he has claimed on his income-tax forms; an adverse ruling could cost him an additional hundred million dollars. To pay off such debts, the President, whose net worth is estimated by Forbes to be two and a half billion dollars, could sell some of his most valuable real-estate assetsor, as he has in the past, find ways to stiff his creditors. But, according to an analysis by the Washington Post, Trumps propertiesespecially his hotels and resortshave been hit hard by the pandemic and the fallout from his divisive political career. Its the office of the Presidency thats keeping him from prison and the poorhouse, Timothy Snyder, a history professor at Yale who studies authoritarianism, told me.
The White House declined to answer questions for this article, and if Trump has made plans for a post-Presidential life he hasnt shared them openly. A business friend of his from New York said, You cant broach it with him. Hed be furious at the suggestion that he could lose. In better times, Trump has revelled in being President. Last winter, a Cabinet secretary told me Trump had confided that he couldnt imagine returning to his former life as a real-estate developer. As the Cabinet secretary recalled, the two men were gliding along in a motorcade, surrounded by throngs of adoring supporters, when Trump remarked, Isnt this incredible? After this, I could never return to ordering windows. It would be so boring.
...
Barbara Res, whose new book, Tower of Lies, draws on the eighteen years that she spent, off and on, developing and managing construction projects for Trump, also thinks that the President is not just running for a second termhe is running from the law. One of the reasons hes so crazily intent on winning is all the speculation that prosecutors will go after him, she said. It would be a very scary spectre. She calculated that, if Trump loses, hell never, ever acknowledge ithell leave the country. Res noted that, at a recent rally, Trump mused to the crowd about fleeing, ad-libbing, Could you imagine if I lose? Im not going to feel so good. Maybe Ill have to leave the countryI dont know. Its questionable how realistic such talk is, but Res pointed out that Trump could go live in one of his buildings in another country, adding, He can do business from anywhere.
He should be forced to surrender his passport when he concedes.
dalton99a
(81,386 posts)BComplex
(8,017 posts)Not after what they've put this country through.
GoneOffShore
(17,336 posts)Thomas Hurt
(13,903 posts)The Pig has no intention of having a post-Presidential life, he intends to be President for life.
He won't succeed but everything he has said and done about it being unfair, and elections being fixed, and he deserves another term for do overs, and fortifying the WH.
All points to one thing...
RKP5637
(67,084 posts)so many stupid, naive and poorly educated people in the US to vote for him, all those deplorables. And he still owes Putin a lot more favors.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,852 posts)... the country if he loses.
He seemed to imply it was because of disappointment, but he clearly wants to save his own ass just like his previous self-absorbed actions.
sboatcar
(412 posts)But I think Putin is probably just playing him for a sucker. He'd probably let him stay until his money was gone and then toss him back to us.
BComplex
(8,017 posts)I'd be surprised if putin doesn't send some of his goons after trump. It would be REALLY cool if putin released the pictures/videos he has of trump. That would be so awesome!
sboatcar
(412 posts)perhaps Putin thinks he could still be his useful idiot.
sboatcar
(412 posts)Unless he was actually photographed having sex with a child, I don't think there would be anything that would sway them. Even then they might be like "Yeah sure he's a pedophile child rapist, but the economy! And it'll own the libtards if he wins!"
Lonestarblue
(9,958 posts)The case was first dropped because of death threats and later settled, but her description of the rape at Epsteins house is just stomach turning. Another person in the house corroborated her story. Heres the link, though I warn you it is not pleasant reading and the details may stay with you far longer than you want.
https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cacd.646485.1.0.pdf
sboatcar
(412 posts)I keep hearing about it, and god, how awful for all those little girls, and who knows how many more there are that haven't reported. I assume there were some pretty strict NDAs involved with the settlements, but how enforceable would they be if they involved criminal acts?
Lonestarblue
(9,958 posts)And sonthe media dropped it too because the case was never brought to trial. Reading this just made me sickand so angry that a man like that is desecrating our White House right now when he should be behind bars. And angry that his oh-so-holy evangelical supporters refuse to acknowledge him as the depraved, amoral monster he is.
LiberalArkie
(15,703 posts)BComplex
(8,017 posts)the codes to the nukes, for all we know.
LiberalArkie
(15,703 posts)secure telephones and video have crypto codes to keep anyone from listening in.
mountain grammy
(26,598 posts)Buckeye_Democrat
(14,852 posts)Not sure where he could go, but those countries don't have extradition treaties with us AFAIK.
I can imagine him "disappearing" if he sticks around Putin very long. Trump would probably be willing to trade him secrets for sanctuary.
zackymilly
(2,375 posts)Eyeball_Kid
(7,429 posts)Putin is KGB. They use people at their discretion, then discard them when no longer useful. IOW, Trump is nearing the end of his luck.
Illumination
(2,458 posts)Solly Mack
(90,758 posts)Actual justice. Not some let the healing begin by allowing the thugs to walk free bullshit. Or the labeling of crimes as policy bullshit.
I won't be holding my breath.
malaise
(268,664 posts)Imagine if every other criminal could hide from the law by becoming president.
How fucked up is that?
RKP5637
(67,084 posts)Laelth
(32,017 posts)Only time will tell.
-Laelth
RKP5637
(67,084 posts)imagine all of the artwork, etc. he will try to loot from the White House before he leaves.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)Trump has already stolen some of them from the US Ambassadors residence in Paris, and, if he can get away with it, theres no reason to believe that he will not loot the White House.
-Laelth
RKP5637
(67,084 posts)I don't trust him one bit being he's a sociopath, narcissist, sadist and racist ... and other things.
Retrograde
(10,128 posts)He might have Dumb or Dumber do that for him, though.
Illumination
(2,458 posts)Besides that deplorable distasteful jacket she wore!...They don't give a crap & it's all about the $!
Retrograde
(10,128 posts)odd for someone with a supposed background in fashion and who hung around in the NYC Vogue circle.
What I do expect - there are probably some designers who created outfits for her in order to get publicity. She's supposed to give those back (or maybe donate them to the Smithsonian or something like that): if she wants to keep them, she has to pay for them. Michelle Obama actually did pay for some outfits created for her that she wanted to keep: all the Trumps seem to be takers, though. I wouldn't mind some prosecutions for accepting gifts over the legal nominal amount.
ETA: as soon as they're gone, I want a camera crew in the White House living quarters filming their decorating style - we can have a national contest to guess the surface area covered in gold (or imitation gold) leaf!
Illumination
(2,458 posts)I'm afraid we're going to be dealing with the effects of these squatters (& those associated with them) for years!...We had no idea how wonderful life truly was before January 2017! Could have NEVER imagined how horrible it would become either! We can still be hopeful for some positive change soon though...
Klaralven
(7,510 posts)Laelth
(32,017 posts)There was no reason for Trump to be involved in the recent treaty between UAE and Israel. I suspect that Bibi promised to defend the UAE if UAE would grant asylum to Trump. UAE is an autocracy, big on hotels and tourism, and ready for a new Trump golf course. They have no extradition treaty with the United States. It would be perfect for Trump. They are also tee-totalers, like Trump. They even have McDonalds. Trump would be in heaven.
-Laelth
ooky
(8,905 posts)The question is how he will ditch his secret service detail.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)Then, once hes safely guarded by his UAE equivalents, he will kindly offer them a flight home.
Easy peasy.
-Laelth
ooky
(8,905 posts)any flights he takes out of the country on AF1 that late in the game will look very suspicious. He may also have his enablers out looking for a bathroom window big enough to fit his ass through.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)If I am right, he has already worked this out with Bibi. He will land in Tel Aviv, switch to a new plane headed to UAE, and it will be a done deal.
-Laelth
ooky
(8,905 posts)if he could somehow be stopped on the way out?
Laelth
(32,017 posts)Thats as it should be. If he orders them fly with him to Tel Aviv prior to Jan. 21, 2021, I suspect that they will. If he then orders them to abandon him and fly home, I suspect that they will do that too ... so long as he is the President.
-Laelth
LiberalArkie
(15,703 posts)a foreign power.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)In the scenario I imagine, Trump abandons the plane in Tel Aviv and orders it to fly home. Then, Israel and UAE arrange for a separate flight to UAE for their new, celebrated immigrant.
-Laelth
LiberalArkie
(15,703 posts)At least Snowden has knowledge of the working of the NSA.
Trump went in to bring the US to about the same point as the Soviet Union when it fell. He can do no more for his masters. They are hoping for riots now. He will fly out and offer a prize to his friends.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)-Laelth
machoneman
(3,994 posts)..as no country save Russia would take him in as such a high profile escapee. Even then, Putin would be under tremendous pressure to give him up as he's nothing to gain AFTER Trumpy is no longer president. In fact,. keeping Trumpy would hurt his standing here, in other free countries and even among many of his own countrymen.
Best of all, he loses not only all the protections a sitting president has (like no prosecution) but also all the free legal help (AG Barr, FBI, ,etc) from the WH staff lawyers as well. Simply, he now has to pay all the bills himself. I sincerely doubt any Republican Pac, Super-Pac or the RNC would pay for his defense. Further, even well-heeled Republican backers, losing the Senate and losing even more House seats, would open their wallet to defend a loser.
Reduced to begging for dollars, campaign dollars already depleted by Pascale, Trumpy would need to get his demoralized degenerates to pony up even more after his historic failure. I don't a lot of cash coming out of their pockets.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)See post #20.
-Laelth
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)But his passport should be revoked.
NCjack
(10,279 posts)Zing Zing Zingbah
(6,496 posts)1. Good riddance
2. That would show his supporters that he's really not a patriot.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)so he can't travel and then seize his US assets.
Mr.Bill
(24,228 posts)will live for generations, or at least until long after he dies, and no trial will ever be able to seat a 12 person jury that wil unanimously convict him of anything. He will spend the rest of his life broke and humiliated, in courtrooms with hung juries.
Turin_C3PO
(13,896 posts)he might have a jury of twelve that will convict him. The city hates him, very low approval rating there.
Harker
(13,957 posts)When has he ever conceded anything to anyone?
Retrograde
(10,128 posts)Trump, despite what he thinks of himself, is a lousy negotiator. He won't meet with Pelosi because he knows he'll cave. Since he's been in office, just about every time he's had to make a deal it turns out bad for him or the US. He's been so sheltered and coddled all his life that even the smallest pushback will make him cave - or stomp off in a fit of rage.
Harker
(13,957 posts)I wrongly used the terms interchangeably.
kimbutgar
(21,040 posts)And exposing how he used the presidency to enrich himself and his donors.? And showing evidence he gave secrets to Russia .
pandr32
(11,548 posts)...without the "when he concedes" part.
Pluvious
(4,305 posts)#TrumpIsAFlightRisk
BobTheSubgenius
(11,558 posts)His internal dialogue - and maybe external, as well - will be something like:
"Well, I do deserve this, and I've had a good run. I'd rather not be living out my retirement in the Greybar Hotel, but I can't deny it's completely fitting."
NoMoreRepugs
(9,366 posts)guilty of serious financial or criminal sexual misconduct charges??
That's a whole lot of guns and ammo coming into play.
LudwigPastorius
(9,095 posts)Jon King
(1,910 posts)The US can put enormous economic and other pressure on any country to not allow him residence. They can also incentivize them to send him back. Trump is not going to be able to flee.
ancianita
(35,926 posts)and can't be pressured to give him up.
Enoki33
(1,587 posts)store Mussolini sanctuary far outweighs any possible benefits. Then there is the question of his family members who are also culpable. He likely doesnt really care what happens to them, but they sure as hell do. And that opens up a host of other delectable possibilities.
rusty fender
(3,428 posts)will go to jail, but it will never happen. His three oldest children will also never go to prison. Rich people like them always settle for paying fines, reduced sentences, etc.
The absolute best we can hope for is maybe a few weeks of home confinement, but even that is pie in the sky
zentrum
(9,865 posts)..I can throw him. He let Jarvanka skate for years. Trump family gave a lot of $$$$ to Vance's campaigns.
Texin
(2,589 posts)He will never concede. Never.