Dave Wasserman tweet: "the line between 290 and 400 EVs for Biden is astonishingly thin."

[tblue37]

Link to tweet

text

Tbh wouldn't be shocked by any of the 16 possible win/loss combinations in FL/GA/NC/TX (although it's more likely the states fall mostly in one direction than split down the middle).

It's a big reason why the line between ~290 and ~400 EVs for Biden is astonishingly thin.

[TwilightZone]

1. Come on, 400.

Though, I'd settle for 350. haha

A big win blunts and likely invalidates any potential whining afterward.

[SharonClark]

2. Wasserman's a little scary if Biden wins by 3% or less

Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict

Here's how I roughly think about the map. If Biden wins popular vote by...
3% or less: Trump probably wins AZ/PA, wins w/ 279+ EVs
4-7%: Biden flips AZ/MI/PA/WI/#NE02, wins 290 EVs
8-9%: adds some combo of FL/GA/NC/TX/#ME02, wins 305-389 EVs
10% or more: adds IA/OH, wins 413 EVs

We want a big margin! More than 3%.

[helpisontheway]

4. I don't think any polls have Biden at 3% nationally.nt

[Roland99]

11. Rasmussen (+1) and IBD/TIPP (+3)

that's the 5-way for IBD/TIPP (which ALSO has trump getting 12.9% of black votes vs the 8% he had in 2016! HA!)

[Proud Liberal Dem]

18. Those aren't considered particularly good polls

Are they even being included in the averages anymore?

[Tom Rivers]

7. The reality is a Dem has to win the popular vote by at least 4% to win the Electoral College

I think Joe wins it between 6-8 percent. If Trump's popular vote percent stays around 46 and Joe's is above 50 I think we're in good shape. Dems need to keep GOTVing and not let up!

[Turin_C3PO]

20. It sucks that we

always have to win by 3% or more. Our system is so unfair but I don’t see a way to change it. The smaller states would never get on board with removing the electoral college.

[My Pet Orangutan]

3. C'mon Texas , Texas c'mon

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214412713

[honest.abe]

5. Yes, in this current election scenario it does look like there are two options.

1) A thin Biden win
2) A massive blue wav tsunami landslide Biden win

I think its number two due to a significant "jump on the bandwagan" effect.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

6. Electoral college sucks

We wouldn't have had any Republican presidents in the last 20 years if we used popular vote.

[Loki Liesmith]

9. Sure we would have

The Republican Party would retool it’s message to address this reality.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

15. Oh well, maybe... And that would have been OK

but their unpopular policies would never have gotten them elected without the unfair voting methods.

[Loki Liesmith]

21. Totally agree there

We’d have a morally decent conservative party. Like the German Christian Democrats or something.

[Binkie The Clown]

8. Once Biden takes office, abolishing the Electoral College must be a priority. nt

[Renew Deal]

10. 290 is MN, WI, MI, PA, and AZ.

400 is every swing state except Iowa.

[Wounded Bear]

12. Yeah, TX + FL is almost 70 EV...

that would be a huge swing.



(A guy can hope, right? I want my hopey-changey back.)

[beachbumbob]

13. wave elections brings many surpises just like 2018

[roamer65]

14. TX is a swing state.

It just amazes me that we could win it.



Trumps toxicity is fueling it.

[ananda]

16. I go with 400!

Woot woot!

[OnDoutside]

17. I'm trying to be logical about this and I think the convention of Rep Registered voters, voting for

Trump automatically, is including the shy Biden voter in the red column. I think that at least 2% will either not vote or vote for Biden this time. The Lincoln Project have been aiming for 4% but believe it's higher, but 2% would be good too.

[Thekaspervote]

19. JMHO, NC numbers look good, more so than the other states. GA & TX I think are a stretch

FL....who knows. If these states were more demographically similar I would agree. NC is just not the same. As FL, GA and TX. Plus Cunningham doing fairly well in NC is encouraging.