We Have Reached 40% of Total Turnout; Biden Leads by 20 Million Votes (if the polls are right)

[berni_mccoy]

As of right now, 95 million people have voted. (see: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html)

This is 69.2% of the 2016 turnout and represents a 40% turnout of the Voting Eligible Population (which is 239,247,182) (see: http://www.electproject.org/2020g)

If the national polling data from https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ is correct, then that means Biden has about a 20 million vote lead in Early Voting (this is extrapolated using the subset of early voting data that has Party ID correlated with the average of the cross tabs on Party ID).

This is most likely an insurmountable lead in the popular vote. Some percentage of Democrats will vote tomorrow. 40 million Trump voters will need to vote tomorrow with fewer than 20 million Biden voters in order for Trump to overtake Biden in the popular vote. That would give Trump 77 million votes, 15 million more than he got in 2016, which is extremely unlikely.

If the distribution goes as projected and turnout is 55%, the same as 2016, Biden will win the popular vote with 10 million votes
At 65% turnout, Biden wins the popular vote with 12.4 million votes.

If you look at Nate Silvers projections for Electoral College win based on popular vote gap, a 10 million vote win like this would translate into a 8-9 point popular vote win, which gives Biden > 99% chance of winning the EC (see: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/ )

My final prediction for this election based on the polls plus the early voting data (something we have not had this scale before): Biden 54% to Trump 46% with Biden taking at least 320 Electoral Votes.

[CaptainTruth]

1. Thanks for sharing! I'm hopeful...

[Historic NY]

2. KEEP VOTING

[JCMach1]

3. My County: Collin in TX is at almost 60% turnout even before

Election Day

[crimycarny]

5. My cousin mentioned to keep an eye on Collin County as a "bellwether" for Texas

She lives in Harris County. Not sure why she feels Collin County is a bellwether county but your comment caught my eye since you mentioned your county was Collin country.

[JCMach1]

7. Collin and Tarrant this time.

If both go blue, you can bank on Biden.

[crimycarny]

15. K, good to know

Thanks. One can only hope!

[JCMach1]

16. Tarrant went for Beto in 2018, but less than 1%

So watch in Texas if

Tarrant is better than1% Biden
Collin + anything Biden

[VMA131Marine]

4. I've been saying for weeks

Biden is going to win the popular vote by 12-15 million votes just based on the current margin in the average of the national polls. If Trump is somehow able to legitimately pull an EC win out of that it will show just how broken the system is.

[sarcasmo]

9. I've been saying 7 million popular vote win with 309 electoral votes.

12-15 million popular vote win would send a Huge message.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

6. Voter Eligible Population is not really a useful number.

Registered voters is far more meaningful.

[triron]

8. Yes clearly. Thanks for the distinction.

[berni_mccoy]

11. That person is wrong. VEP is how it is measured

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2014/07/31/measuring-voter-turnout

[berni_mccoy]

10. I prefer VEP because this provides a better estimate of who *could* vote...

regardless of registration status; given some states allow registration at the polls, it provides a ceiling for the various status.

Besides, this is how it is measured (there are only 153 million registered voters in the US, that means Early Voting turnout would be at 62% which it isn't): https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2014/07/31/measuring-voter-turnout

[uponit7771]

12. But if people are not registered they can't vote

[berni_mccoy]

13. Some states allow registration at the polls

And this is how it’s been calculated for decades.

[uponit7771]

14. Thx for this info, looks like we need voting reform in their country no doubt

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

17. Same day registration is, according to the internet,

available in 21 states plus the District of Columbia. And some of them only allow that during the early voting period. If same day registration, through Election Day itself, were universal, then VEP would be very meaningful. But since it's not universal, the VEP is much less meaningful than those who actually are registered. If nothing else, both numbers should be included.

My opinion, anyway.

It used to be that many (maybe most? I don't know) states required that you have lived there some minimum time, sometimes as long as a year, before allowing you to register to vote. And closed registration at least thirty days before Election Day. At least those things have changed significantly.