See You On The Other Side........ Joe Biden is going to win, and it isn't going to be close.

[Celerity]

https://thebanter.substack.com/p/see-you-on-the-other-side



Almost everyone I know is extremely nervous about what is going to happen on November 3rd. Several friends have told me recently that they have had to log out of all social media accounts because of the onslaught of polls, news headlines and crazy Trump tweets that were causing severe anxiety. I am sure most Banter readers are in the same boat. I have struggled with my own moments of fear and panic over the past few weeks and months, no doubt caused by Donald Trump dominating much of my waking life. I have covered his administration for years now, and I have been trained to expect the absolute worst. But I now sense a tidal wave of change coming, and the end of this horrifically destructive era in American history. By late Tuesday all the campaign work will have been done, all the votes cast, and we will know fairly soon after what kind of future Americans and the rest of the planet can look forward to. My best guess is that this election isn’t going to be close. I think Joe Biden is going to hammer Donald Trump in a victory that will give the former Vice President a huge mandate for governing the country.

Trump and his loyalists will kick and scream, mount legal challenges, and demand the Supreme Court intervene. But it won’t matter because the result will be definitive, and no Republican will be able to defend Trump’s position that the election was stolen. I could be wrong about this, as most of us were in 2016, but from careful analysis of the data over many months, I think it is now abundantly clear that 2020 is a very, very different year. Here are some points worth considering as we wait for this pivotal election to be over: If Biden takes Pennsylvania, the race is basically done. He has enough other states that are solid blue in the bag to only need one decent sized, already leaning blue state to take the White House. He’s up by 5.1 points in PA according to FiveThirtyEight and his campaign is engaged in a huge turnout effort on the ground. Trump won the state by 0.7 points in 2016 and it is highly unlikely he’ll be doing better there four years later during a devastating pandemic.

Even if Biden loses Pennsylvania, he still has several paths to victory. For example, while Arizona isn’t as sure a bet as Pennsylvania according to the polls, the state hasn’t suffered the same kind of polling mishaps as other swing states. Polls accurately predicted Trump would win in 2016, and given Biden is now up there by 2.5 points, he has a very good shot of winning it. If he loses PA, there is still no need to panic. AZ is a great back up to get Biden to 270. Trump support has collapsed in key demographics, particularly in the suburbs, and particularly with women. He needs them to win, and there is no evidence they are coming out to vote for him last minute. The state polls have been extremely consistent for months now, and they are likely to be more accurate than they were in 2016. Polls are now weighted for education due to many of them missing Trump’s support with uneducated white men in 2016, and may even be undercounting Biden’s support. There could be 2016 size polling errors, and Biden would still win.

Trump can still win this, but there is no reliable evidence anywhere to suggest he is going to. There were several signs that indicated an upset in 2016 as the election date drew nearer. The polls were tightening, and the FBI inexplicably launched an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server just 11 days before voters went to the polls. There are no such signs in this election. The polls remain steady, there are no investigations into Biden’s so-called “crime family”, and none of Trump’s smear tactics have appeared to have worked. Biden looks set to beat Trump in the Electoral College, and it isn’t going to be close. The Senate is tighter, but all polls point to a Democratic takeover. I suspect it is going to be closer than the Presidential race, but the Democrats are in a very good position to pick up just enough to win a slim majority. Given the horrors of the past four years under Trump and his criminal handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, Americans and the planet deserve a break. Those opposed to this administration have worked tirelessly for this moment, so go vote if you haven’t, then get ready for a very good night for Joe Biden and the Democrats. You’ve earned it.

See you on the other side.

[Karma13612]

1. Right now I can't be sure if I feel like tomorrow is going to be

Christmas day or my next scheduled colonoscopy.

And the strangest thing is, I am pretty sure my LAST colonoscopy was just a short 4 years ago, almost to the day.



thanks for this post....it helps a lot!!

[LaMouffette]

2. Joe Biden SO deserves this win.

He is a man of great character. Here is an excerpt about Joe's early years, from the Biography website:

Biden attended St. Paul's Elementary School in Scranton. In 1955, when he was 13 years old, the family moved to Mayfield, Delaware—a rapidly growing middle-class community sustained primarily by the nearby DuPont chemical company.

As a child, Biden struggled with a stutter, and kids called him "Dash" and "Joe Impedimenta" to mock him. He eventually overcame his speech impediment by memorizing long passages of poetry and reciting them out loud in front of the mirror.

Biden attended the St. Helena School until he gained acceptance into the prestigious Archmere Academy. Although he had to work by washing the school windows and weeding the gardens to help his family afford tuition, Biden had long dreamed of attending the school, which he called "the object of my deepest desire, my Oz." At Archmere, Biden was a solid student and, despite his small size, a standout receiver on the football team. "He was a skinny kid," his coach remembered, "but he was one of the best pass receivers I had in 16 years as a coach." Biden graduated from Archmere in 1961.

He overcame a speech impediment. He washed windows and weeded gardens to be able to afford tuition. He overcame his small stature to become a "standout receiver." And that was just the beginning of a life filled with so much hard work, so many years spent helping other people as a lifelong public servant, culminating in this moment.

Go Joe and Kamala! You've got this!

[link:https://www.biography.com/political-figure/joe-biden|

[peggysue2]

4. Biden deserves the win, has earned it and is going accomplish it within a comfortable margin

I agree with the OP, we're headed toward a trifecta. The Senate may not be as big as hoped for but we'll win the majority.

And then the real work begins: to repair the damage to our institutions and agencies, shore up healthcare, work on a new voting rights and civil rights package, etc., ect., ect., and then map out a strategy to weed out all remaining Trump enablers and apologists so that this malignant political strain slithers back under the rocks where it belongs.

The election results with a Biden win and House/Senate majorities is just the beginning. This has been a wakeup call; we cannot afford to squander it or go back to thinking a single cycle win will cure the rot.

It won't.

We need to continue to stay awake, informed and vote as if our lives depended on it. Because they always have.

[Brainfodder]

3. You have to be some kind of special to want 4 more years of it?

After world class level of ignorance/greed caused way more deaths of citizens then would have normally, if you give science any credit?

Meanwhile you care about controlling women's use of their private parts TOO much?

Meanwhile you ignored all the red flags?

So Republicans, still on the rolls as such, I conclude that you fucking SUCK! Suck at logic, suck at.....

'nuff said!

Good luck!