literally is down to AZ, PA, FL, and NC. A NV loss makes an AZ loss more likely, and if we lose AZ, then even flipping NC, but losing PA and FL means a loss for us. We lose as well (obviously) if we win AZ but lose NC, PA, and FL.
finally,
A 269-269 tie means we are more than likely fucked, as the Rethugs hold 26 state delegations atm (the minimum needed), and the only real chance we have to take one away is FL (WI is too gerrymandered), with the only shot there being FL-15, Alan Cohn (Democratic Party) versus Scott Franklin (Republican Party, he beat Spano, the damaged Rethug in the primary). Its a pretty Red district, the last time we won it was 1992. Even if Cohn pulls off an upset, FL-26 with freshwoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is super shaky atm, especially given the pro Rethug Latinx surge and Dade underperforming so far. The Rethugs can add two more delegations as well, MI (tied assuming Amash's indy seat goes back to Red, and 2 or 3 shots for the Rethugs to pull back another) and PA, which is tied now, and its a coin toss if it stays that way or goes Rethug.
A 269-269 tie will rip the nation apart, (especially IF your faithless elector scenario is how we get there) as Biden will win the popular vote by 5 to 10 million votes only to robbed via a hyper arcane technicality-
IF that happens there will be kinetic violence, I have little to no doubt. The odds of it happening are VERY small though, very. For the world's sake, let us all hope that it doesn't happen at all. It is literally the stuff of dystopian fiction.
NOW, there is a way (and it certainly courts civil war) that Nancy Pelosi can guarantee a win for us if it goes to the House. This is as deep into the constitutional weeds as we can get. I have only seen one other person here besides me talk about this (not to say that others have not).
Assuming Pelosi is still the speaker (meaning we retain the House), Pelosi could use the chamber’s power under the Constitution’s Article I, Section 5, to have her majority be the 'judge' of contested elections to the House. The House could then seat enough Democrats to give Democrats control of a majority of state delegations before the House votes to select the president in January 2020.
Article I, Section 5
Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members, and a Majority of each shall constitute a Quorum to do Business; but a smaller Number may adjourn from day to day, and may be authorized to compel the Attendance of absent Members, in such Manner, and under such Penalties as each House may provide.
Authoritarian Electoral College Underpopulation:
Historical Reflections and a Possible Countermove under Article I, Section 5
https://dcarpenter.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dcarpenter/files/constitutionalcountermove_memo20200801.pdf
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