FiveThirtyEight vs CNN. Can someone explain why....

[LAS14]

John King's map shows Florida pink, but FiveThirtyEight picks Biden to win 69 to 31?

John King's map shows North Carolina pink, but FiveThirtyEight picks Biden to win 65 to 35?

There was another state like this but I forget which.

tia
las

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Because CNN is only using their poll, 538 averages all polls. Nt

[jcgoldie]

2. I don't know what John King uses for those numbers

538 uses an aggregate of polls... they probably include more polls than any other projection... so much so that you frequently see posts here on DU criticizing their inclusion of this one or that one.

If CNN is using an aggregate at all then I'm guessing its RCP which is suspect insofar as they include many far right polling outfits but exclude higher rated polls that are not favorable to conservatives.

[getagrip_already]

6. like karnacky, could be cherry picking to create a horse race mentality....

It gets boring and viewers get back to life when they don't panic.

At least that's karnackies objective; PANIC!!!

[miyazaki]

13. True. CNN doing the same.

[Proud liberal 80]

3. He must have been playing around with it

Showing different scenarios

This is their map

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps#build-your-own

[LAS14]

5. Huh! Thanks! This is SO CONFUSING!!!! nt

[Kaleva]

14. Interesting. Biden could lose OH,PA,GA,FL & NC and still win the election

As long as he won WI, MI, AZ, NH. and at least one district in NE and one district in ME.

[Statistical]

4. Horsie race.

It can also depends on the polls being used.
538 ranks polls and discards the garbage and even among the non-garbage the highest rated polls are weighted more heavily.

However the real answer is horsie race. If Biden locks this thing down early ... who will watch all the cheeseburger ads?

[Wellstone ruled]

7. CNN trying to keep their

access to their King-ship. Not forget,their News operations Guy was a Producer on the Apprentice.

[The Magistrate]

8. The 538 Odds, Sir

Are two in three, roughly. Twice in three times is a decent bet, but it it fails, one is not entitled to feel personally persecuted by the universe. It is roughly equivalent to betting dice rolled will come up a seven or less (21 out of 36 possible). Hence the pale tone....

[Buckeye_Democrat]

9. He plays with their map constantly.

"Here's what can happen if Biden wins Arizona and the district in Nebraska..."

[Timewas]

10. If it is a total route

Early on then they so called "news"outlets don't have any drama to report they need it to be edge of the seat drama

[Thekaspervote]

11. John King is not a poll aggregator..he's looking at one poll and making summations

They should leave it to the experts

[BannonsLiver]

12. Because they're trying to build intrigue whereas Silver is just analyzing data.