Listening to the 538 daily election podcast - some key points I took down during listening

[NRaleighLiberal]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-final-reflections-on-the-2020-campaign-before-election-day/

if you want to listen see the link above. I did some summary, below, if you didn't want to take the hour to listen.

key points:

Nate feels this is an extremely consequential election. Wonders how sites like 538 can go on if Trump wins? Whether it is bad polling, or Trump making false claims - what does the future hold?

If the trends on recent polls hold, Biden may outperform the polls being reported.

Joe Biden's final argument ad - voiced by Bruce Springsteen - cheesy Americana.
Trump's final argument ad - like a parody of a Springsteen song, saying everything is great, post-COVID - just surreal.
Clare Malone found those two to be a reality and a completely alternate reality. There is tons of troubling stuff coming out of the trump campaign. (as in worse than she thought possible - even for trump it is low).

Perry pulled up a speech from trump - "defund your police and confiscate your guns while they are protected by armed guards. You must show up on Nov 3." Biden speech "tomorrow we can put an end to a presidency that has divided, and failed to protect this nation and has fanned the flames of hate". the point is that trump is the one defending the traditional way of life.

What is so remarkable is how steady the polling has been. Is this election being defined by COVID? Clare - yes - the mechanics of the election (mail in, etc), court battles. Older voters are leaving trump because of his mishandling of COVID, but also the Dem's choice of Joe Biden. The tenor of the election - all things come back to COVID - really shapes the election. The economy because of COVID is not what trump wanted to run on.

Nate - pandemic, aside from killing many people, put trump into a downward spiral - they throw ridiculous hail marys and they all failed. What trump is doing is fucking insane. It is also a sign of weakness. Saying they will declare victory at half time and then hope the rest of the game is cancelled is fucking insane.

Perry - everything the last four years has been about trump - the way he handled the pandemic, etc. He has been a terrible leader during this time.

Clare - Republican party has subsumed themselves into a cult of personality. It is a trump party. It is so unusual that an entire national conversation becomes about one person. Very odd times.

Galen - how did this compare to the 2016 campaign, which was also trump centric? Clare - big factor is that it was about sexism and two unpopular candidates. Biden seems like a well liked person. Perry - coverage about trump because of his 4 year record has been much more honest and negative. Media erred in their focus on Hillary's emails. Coverage of trump is much more blunt - and COVID has made the media be harder on trump. Clare - thinks COVID prevented more of a media focus on the Hunter Biden stuff.

Nate - doesn't want this to be a post mortem yet because we don't yet know the results. People are so focused on the 10 percent trump chance, and not focusing nearly enough at the Biden 90 percent chance (as a reader reaction to Nate's article from last night. Complaint that Biden is often treated as an underdog even at a 90 percent chance!). What are reasons to think the 90 percent will happen or be even conservative? trump barely squeaked in last time running against an opponent that lots of people didn't like. Doesn't seem that unlikely that some small fraction of 2016 trump voters will switch back to Dems - for Biden. How little Biden has to do relative to Clinton to really win big. Liberal elites have disdain for stupid people and think the worst. (disdain for red america).

Clare - talked about the reality (or not) of the hidden trump voter. Thinks that in the US, the country's personality is that trump supporters are proud to vote for him. So, she doesn't believe there are hidden trump voters.

Perry - realizes 2016 put the fear into people this year about this election. Also thinks the shy trump voter is not really a thing (though thinks that it could exist on small levels).

Clare - racism and sexism was agreed as bad and lines weren't crossed. Because of trump, lines were crossed and racism and sexism is now partisan. People on the right now feel less shame in being openly racist or sexist.

Nate - doesn't think there is a gap between people's public and private selves. If people really are not racist, they will not vote for trump. Thinks that trump supporters have worked out the rationalization and will freely say they are voting for trump.

Perry - we had some big protests in the country - after George Floyd, etc - and Perry thought these would reflect bad on Democrats - but in reality, Biden's support went up (probably due to the behavior of the police). trump's reactions to the protests hurt him - he thought suburban people would agree with his views.

Nathaniel, election analyst, talking about how tomorrow will go - closing of the poll timings, assessing results.

7 PM - FL could be called as early as 8 PM, unless it is very very close.
730 - NC and OH - both should come in pretty early - could be by the end of the night. If close, could take a week to call.
8 - big poll closing time - most important PA and last polls in FL. PA will be very slow to count. Won't start until Tues or Wed.
9 - MI and TX, WI and AZ. AZ and TX should be fast to count but could be close. MI said it will take a few days, WI is similar to PA (can't start until Tues) - but will try to get it done on election night. Hoping WI will be called by Wed AM.

There will be an eastern bias re states that decide this election.

What to tell the listeners?

FL is key, count fast - bad indicator for 2018.
NC - lots of the vote will be in - if Biden is up a bit, could be a tell. If it is close, could take a long time to settle.

Clare has a special twitter list of who to follow to get a sense of things by various counties.

When people are watching election results, take the early results with a grain of salt.

When will we get a sense of the senate? Will we know which party controls the senate on Tues PM?

AZ, CO, NC, ME - all key to Dem control - depends when the votes come in. GA - could be a double run off.
Alaska - Dems have an outside shot - they won't start to count absentee until week after election day.
No matter what we will be paying attention to senate results for weeks after election day.

Which tabs on people's browsers on election night? Best places for info (aside from 538)?

Perry - Twitter - to see AP, ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox to get insights into various decision desks.
Clare - 538 live blog, twitter, NYT, FOX (not polling side, but what their home page is showing - to get the right wing headlines). ABC owns 538.
Nate - doesn't care about the fucking narrative, only concerned with results. In this time when results will be confusing - trust will be a big thing. Mail voting and early voting will really scramble things - WA Post in addition to above. If Biden wins 2 out of the 5 AZ, FL GA, TX, NC - he will win the election, but there may not be 270 callable EVs yet.

Coverage plans for tomorrow - prediction will freeze at midnight tonight.
Live blog opens 10 AM tomorrow.
Evening - regular video updates (real time) - no podcast until later in the evening - find 538 on YouTube.

[flamingdem]

1. If tRump does well at all we'll be hearing about this factor mentioned:

Nate - doesn't think there is a gap between people's public and private selves. If people really are not racist, they will not vote for trump. Thinks that trump supporters have worked out the rationalization and will freely say they are voting for trump.

We'll hear about just how they "worked out" the rationalization.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. Interesting. Thanks. . . . nt