Post removed

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Right-wing pollster who has been extremely off since 2016.

Lucky once doesn't mean lucky always.

[Doodley]

11. Trafalgar was the only poll to predict Trump would win Michigan. It got that right too.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. They have been a mess since 2016...

In an election where there was a ton of undecided voters.

Don't fret about this poll.

[qazplm135]

2. no, it's not

their whole operation is assuming there are more Trump voters than the polls show.

There was some evidence of that in 2016, and even if that held into 2020, it assumes it is either MUCH bigger than it was in 2016 and/or that our side does not have significantly increased turnout.

[Turin_C3PO]

3. Nah.

Their results always favors Republicans. Pay attention to the poll averages on 538. That’ll give you a better picture of where the race is at.

[Doodley]

13. I paid attention in 2016. PA is vulnerable now.

[Turin_C3PO]

15. Sure it's vulnerable.

All the swing states are. But this is not 2016. Much more data this time that suggests a catastrophe for Trump tomorrow.

[Doodley]

18. I hope so. Tomorrow is literally one of the most important days of my life and I'm sure for

millions who want the Trump nightmare to end. It's anxiety.

[Turin_C3PO]

20. I hear you.

I’ll be glad when it’s over. I’m hoping for a Tuesday night or Wednesday morning prediction for Biden.

[tman]

4. lol

[obnoxiousdrunk]

6. +100. N/t

[NutmegYankee]

5. They got lucky in 2016 with 16% undecided.

That ain't an issue this time.

[Music Man]

7. FWIW, Nate Silver thinks there's no evidence of the "shy Trump voter" Trafalgar relies on.

There's no way Trump has expanded his base since 2016. The only way Biden loses is if Democrats don't turn out. I don't think there's any way his numbers in any of these key states has actually gone up since 2016.

[Doodley]

16. I agree. There's no reason that Trump has any new support. But there's cheating, voter suppression,

the mail delivery issues, and the fact that the average polls were off in 2016.

[Quixote1818]

8. They are actually off more than most pollsters. Got lucky in the rustbelt last time

They are only correct 75% of the time making them pretty much not better than a good guess. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/


Their cross tabs are total nonsense: https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/politics/nate-silver-blasts-trafalgar-and-rasmussen-polls-as-crazy


Pollsters have corrected for what they missed last time which was underestimating the number of non-educated voters for Trump.

[AkFemDem]

9. Calm down. They also said...

Nelson would beat Scott in November of 2018.

They’re not magic. They’re pollsters with a margin of error.

[Tom Rivers]

10. Despair despair despair

I think it will be close within 5 points but that is a hardcore GOP pollster. Most others have a solid and steady Biden lead. Plenty of time for stress and despair afterwards if it doesn't go our way, in the meantime I encourage optimism, hope, and Dems to continue to GOTV. Senator Casey said tonight he is positive Biden will win PA, he was famously worried about HRC in 2016.

[doc03]

14. I don't know why people post the worst polls they can find but maybe it will

help to get out the vote.

[Doodley]

17. Pre-election anxiety.

[LisaL]

21. And of course you decided to make the rest of us anxious too?

NT

[brettdale]

19. The head of trafalgar was on Hannity today

Basically Pissing himself, calling Nate Silver a loser, and both him and Hannity
agree, its going to be a landslide for trump.

So Trafalgar has zero credibility.

[Doodley]

22. Loses all credibility as an independent pollster.