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Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:23 AM

Breakdown of voters who haven't yet voted in FL on election day


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23 replies, 1350 views

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Arrow 23 replies Author Time Post
Reply Breakdown of voters who haven't yet voted in FL on election day (Original post)
octoberlib Nov 3 OP
Goodheart Nov 3 #1
octoberlib Nov 3 #3
Baitball Blogger Nov 3 #8
octoberlib Nov 3 #20
Teach29 Nov 3 #10
Sunsky Nov 3 #19
Baitball Blogger Nov 3 #4
beachbumbob Nov 3 #2
octoberlib Nov 3 #5
still_one Nov 3 #6
octoberlib Nov 3 #12
Roland99 Nov 3 #7
octoberlib Nov 3 #14
Johnny2X2X Nov 3 #9
CurtEastPoint Nov 3 #11
octoberlib Nov 3 #13
CurtEastPoint Nov 3 #15
Teach29 Nov 3 #17
Grown2Hate Nov 3 #18
The Magistrate Nov 3 #16
sunnybrook Nov 3 #21
The Magistrate Nov 3 #22
radius777 Nov 3 #23

Response to octoberlib (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:26 AM

1. Maybe it's too early for me, but I don't see how his stats support what he's trying to say.

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Response to Goodheart (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:29 AM

3. Here's a follow up tweet. I think it's too early yet to be worrying.

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Response to octoberlib (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:32 AM

8. Judging from past elections, Republicans tend to vote early in the morning

on election day to make it to work on time. Which is what we all did at one time.



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Response to Baitball Blogger (Reply #8)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:42 AM

20. I'm sure you're right. He just tweeted that it's already starting to look better for Dems

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Response to octoberlib (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:32 AM

10. I would imagine

that the vast majority of the NPA/Other voters will go Biden. I think we are OK.

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Response to octoberlib (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:42 AM

19. Wasserman will be on my trash list. The polls have just opened

The polls close at 7 pm. This early freakout is not necessary. I haven't even gotten out of bed and I'm sure many others are just beginning their day as well. Give us the stat at mid-day, that will be more helpful. Palm Beach will not have more Republicans voting than Democrats.

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Response to Goodheart (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:29 AM

4. It's not just you.

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Response to octoberlib (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:27 AM

2. With 8.9 million votes done and a huge unknown based on non-affilliate, the GOP would need

 

EVERY single GOP voter to vote, which isn't happening while less than half of the democratic and nonaffilliate NOT to vote, which is not going to happen.

By 8pm will KNOW the trajectory out of florida

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Response to beachbumbob (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:30 AM

5. Agree.

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Response to octoberlib (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:30 AM

6. It has only been an hour and a half since the polls opened. Also what are the specific numbers

Democrats plus No party affiliation, verses republicans

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Response to still_one (Reply #6)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:34 AM

12. I think Dave Wasserman's freaking out, lol. I'm actually encouraged by that breakdown.

It's too early yet to be worrying.

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Response to octoberlib (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:32 AM

7. AND with an EVEN split from NPA, Dems held a seeming 108k lead as of yesterday morning!

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #7)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:35 AM

14. Great news!

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Response to octoberlib (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:32 AM

9. I think Trump miscalculated day of voting

Saw similar stats in WI. There isn't going to be some Red Wave on day of voting in most of these swing states, Reps voted early too.

This is good news and I still think it's really hard to quantify what smaller lines in the cities because of early voting will mean, but it's definitely a big advantage to Dems. Democrats lose perhaps millions of votes due to long lines in the cities every election.

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Response to octoberlib (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:33 AM

11. What is 'NPA?' Undecided?

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Response to CurtEastPoint (Reply #11)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:35 AM

13. Non-affiliated voters. Independents

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Response to octoberlib (Reply #13)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:35 AM

15. Oh. But what does NPA stand for? No something something...

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Response to CurtEastPoint (Reply #15)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:38 AM

17. No Party Affiliation

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Response to CurtEastPoint (Reply #15)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:39 AM

18. No Party Affiliation, I believe.

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Response to CurtEastPoint (Reply #11)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:37 AM

16. 'No Party Affiliation', Sir

Some of this analysis seems a bit simplistic. It assumes every registered Democrat or Republican votes for their party's ticket. It's not always a safe assumption.

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Response to The Magistrate (Reply #16)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:45 AM

21. That's what I've been saying

We not only get more than half of NPA but we might get 15% of Republicans

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Response to sunnybrook (Reply #21)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 08:48 AM

22. And We Will Lose Some Democrats, Too, Sir

Especially in southern and Appalachian states, there are appreciable numbers of people registered as Democrats who have not voted for a Democrat on the Party's national ticket in a dog's age.

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Response to The Magistrate (Reply #22)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 09:31 AM

23. IIRC, in the swing states like FL we are likely to

win twice as many Repubs (the anti-Trump Repubs voting for Biden) as they do Dems.

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