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NRaleighLiberal

(60,014 posts) Tue Nov 3, 2020, 09:23 AM Nov 2020

These are the numbers we go into today with final polling info

538 - Joe favored to win, 89/100 chance in their simulations, 348 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote, Senate 52 seats, 75% chance of outcome, House 97% chance of retaining, total of 240 seats

Princeton - Joe with a +5.3 meta margin, 342 EVs, Senate 53 Dems, House +4.6 edge (retain/gain)

Economist -Joe 97% chance of winning, 356 EVs, 54.4% of the popular vote. Senate - 81% chance of retaining, 52 seats. House - 99% chance of retaining, 244 seats

where we were this day 2016
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Let's see how the prognosticators above did once everything is counted.

I like the results...and have a feeling Joe will outperform them a bit.

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These are the numbers we go into today with final polling info (Original Post) NRaleighLiberal Nov 2020 OP

I would certainly much rather be where we are at the moment than... SKKY Nov 2020 #1

K&R, There's no James Comey crap this time. People are still minimizing how much he hurt HRC's ... uponit7771 Nov 2020 #2

More doc03 Nov 2020 #3

How much do the polls account for votes not counted, sabotage, etc.? empedocles Nov 2020 #4

They don't still_one Nov 2020 #5

there's always going to be data that can't get incorporated.. NRaleighLiberal Nov 2020 #6

Thank you both. Next question. Any estimates, or, imperiled states? empedocles Nov 2020 #7

kick for the afternoon shift NRaleighLiberal Nov 2020 #8

SKKY

(11,807 posts)

1. I would certainly much rather be where we are at the moment than...

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 09:26 AM

Nov 2020

...where they are. I'm cautiously optimistic because I have kept my focus on one number these past 4 years. 77,744. That's the number of votes Trump won by. No way he repeats that again. Not a chance.