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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHere's a link to one of the best election watching sites. NYT Upshot
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article
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Here's a link to one of the best election watching sites. NYT Upshot (Original Post)
LAS14
Nov 2020
OP
Roland99
(53,342 posts)1. What We'll Know, and When We'll Know
What Well Know, and When Well Know
An hour-by-hour guide to interpreting election results like an expert.
By Nate Cohn
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/upshot/election-night-guide.html
More than anything else, keep these three tips in mind:
Be cautious. A lot of states are changing the way theyre administering the election, and even the experts dont know exactly how all this is going to go.
If you want to dig into detailed results, focus on the right places. If youre the kind of person who checks the results by county, make sure youre focusing on counties where all of the votes have been counted. Partial results will be heavily skewed toward whatever vote method was counted first, so home in on the places where results are complete. One possible exception: if a candidate is beating expectations with results that were supposed to be strong for the other candidate.
Our results pages will offer an estimate of whether nearly all of the votes are counted. Its just a guess, but train your eyes there.
Finally, focus on the states that count their early and mail votes before counting Election Day votes. Why? Theyll probably wrap up most of their count on election night their counties will probably tell us that all of the vote is in. Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are good examples. Pennsylvania and Arizona are not.
Heres what Ill be paying attention to, hour by hour:
Be cautious. A lot of states are changing the way theyre administering the election, and even the experts dont know exactly how all this is going to go.
If you want to dig into detailed results, focus on the right places. If youre the kind of person who checks the results by county, make sure youre focusing on counties where all of the votes have been counted. Partial results will be heavily skewed toward whatever vote method was counted first, so home in on the places where results are complete. One possible exception: if a candidate is beating expectations with results that were supposed to be strong for the other candidate.
Our results pages will offer an estimate of whether nearly all of the votes are counted. Its just a guess, but train your eyes there.
Finally, focus on the states that count their early and mail votes before counting Election Day votes. Why? Theyll probably wrap up most of their count on election night their counties will probably tell us that all of the vote is in. Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are good examples. Pennsylvania and Arizona are not.
Heres what Ill be paying attention to, hour by hour:
and this:
No need to watch the returns Tuesday, this is how it'll go down. - Drunken Irishman
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=14411536
Tom Rivers
(459 posts)2. The Upshot model broke me in 2016
And almost did the same in 2018 before rebounding for the Dems.
I definitely will not be following along with that, even if it has given a scarily accurate forecast before. I'll just dod along blissfully unaware following some of my favorite twitter accounts and then go to bed if I learn that things have went south.