Update from FL, good news

[Johnny2X2X]

Trump needs to do way better today than he's reportedly doing. Trump probably needs 64% today to win FL.

Link to tweet

?s=20

[honest.abe]

1. Yes!!!

That's what I was hoping for!

[lagomorph777]

2. Contents of the Twit post?

I don't click on Twit; it supports Putin and Trump.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. You should be able to see it without clicking on it

Trump needs to be at 64% today, estimates are that he's a 54%, and that doesn't include Miami Dade yet.

[lagomorph777]

9. Thanks! Great news! My browser doesn't show Twit links and I don't control its configuration.

If ya know what I mean.

[cwydro]

8. It shows in the OP for me.

Wonder why you’re not seeing it.

Anyway, it says Ds are keeping pace with Rs in the voting.

[getagrip_already]

13. I don't see tweets either.....

I think it's an ad blocker. No biggie. I hate twitter anyway.

[cwydro]

14. It's weird for me, usually I see them, but then sometimes not.

[Sentath]

32. Same, they just stopped showing a few days ago

Maybe they'll start after the election, maybe they won't.

[radical noodle]

3. And some of those registered Republicans voted blue!

I've seen a lot of "Republicans for Biden" signs.

[grantcart]

20. Yep that's going to be the big surprise of the evening. Over 15% IMO

[ananda]

4. And from Harris and Travis Counties in Texas..

Voting in these counties is going very well.

Houston has already seen over 50,000 votes,
and Travis over 15,000.

Travis has 178 polling locations, curbside for
the disabled and those who need assistance,
and one drive-thru location for mail-ins.

Houston has 800 locations, including Toyota Center.

Both counties report that everything there is going well!

[Just_Vote_Dem]

6. If Joe wins Florida, it's over n/t

[BComplex]

12. And if he wins Texas, too, it's over for the republican party for this

election! YAY!!!

[Volaris]

31. If texas flips, it will be an extinction level event for the GOP.

Thatd be the equalivant of a Red California in a presidential cycle.
Gop will be fucked for 20 years. Cause once we demonstrate 'proof of concept', the cats out of the bag so to speak, and I doubt they can put it back in.

[BComplex]

34. What is "proof of concept"?

What cats will that let out?

[Volaris]

37. That texas is, and always shall be, red. It only needs to get blue once,

For everybody blue in that state to believe they can keep it that way if they keep voting for it en mass

[Withywindle]

42. I think that's what happened in VA

That and demographic shifts (which are also happening in TX). I grew up there and it was red as hell my whole life - until 2008. When I heard VA called for Obama that's when I knew his win was going to be YUGE. And VA has been blue ever since.

[beachbumbob]

7. Im not sure numbers are coming from but I know of NO instance that any vote count is released BEFORE

polls are closed

[honest.abe]

10. I think this is just numbers voted by party.

They appear to be legit and up to date.

[grantcart]

15. ID by part affiliation.

[BComplex]

35. But lots of registered republicans are voting for Joe Biden.

So just the numbers of "registered voters" isn't going to give you who they voted for.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Trump will likely need to win same-day voting with 64% to overcome Biden's lead in Florida.

[grantcart]

17. Since he is running at 54% midday he will need 70% for the rest of the day.

Starting the unclenching process.

[obamanut2012]

24. Agreed -- 64%, adjusted for what's happening now

So, 69%/70%.

The Pandhandle will easily be 70%+, so am hoping SOFL has lots of extra blue voters show up today!

[joshcryer]

16. Does anyone know what site he's getting these numbers from?

[grantcart]

19. Probably Democratic Party numbers

They would be keeping minute by minute tracking of the number of ballots given out by party affiliation

[joshcryer]

26. It is my understanding FL has party affilation numbers...

...that are available. I do not know if they are locked behind some sort of by-party wall so that they can motivate their party members to vote if they aren't showing up or what.

[Roland99]

22. they're tracking the numbers here (looks like live Election Day updates, too)

google doc link

Today shows about a 50k lead of Rep over Dem so far

[joshcryer]

25. How did you find this?

I don't see any indication where it is coming from?

[PTWB]

28. They are just tracking by party affiliation not who they voted for.

As of now, about 75,000 more registered Republicans have their ballots being reported by the state. There are still some counties that aren’t reporting yet today, but it is looking like an R lead right now in Florida.

This is all way too early to say anything conclusive, just tidbits of data to give you a hint on how things may go.

Trump has to win Florida... Joe doesn’t.

[joshcryer]

30. I want Joe to have a close or tight race in FL.

If not PA shenanigans are going to happen.

[Roland99]

33. I traced to a website here...I'm using this for checking various county info

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=oka


just change the 3 letters for the county

"sar" Sarasota
"san" Santa Rosa
"ora" Orange

etc


and I'm using this for comparisons to 2016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida#By_county

[Rice4VP]

18. Thanks for labeling this good news so that people

don’t freak out. I’ve had to trash several threads today that just increased my anxiety

[Poiuyt]

21. I think it's way too early to judge what's going to happen in FL

Especially since the panhandle is in a different time zone.

[radius777]

23. This is a weird election and people need to wait

for all the results to come in. Wasserman was needlessly scaring people with just an hour of morning results coming in. We only know about voter turnout by party ID - not who those people are actually voting for (could be a higher than normal percentage of Repubs voting Dem this time). Then there is NPA(no party affiliation) which is likely to lean Dem (perhaps heavily).

[Drunken Irishman]

27. GOP will dominate the vote today there. That's a near-guarantee.

But yes, everything beyond that is speculation. How many people will actually vote today? If it's only 20% more of registered voters, that will limit the margins.

How many Republicans are voting Biden?

What percentage of NPAs are breaking for Biden?

I think this guy is basing his projections off a significant amount of NPAs going Biden, whereas Dave doesn't seem to be assuming that and is mostly just referencing the gap between Dem/Rep.

Florida is going to be decided by the NPAs as they're Biden's best shot at narrowing the partisan gap on election day.

[calimary]

29. C'mon Florida!

Do the right thing!

Or maybe in this case, do the LEFT thing!

[IronLionZion]

36. Blue Wave!

Come on Florida. You can do it

[Johnny2X2X]

38. More good news!

Miami Dade going to hit 80% voter turnout! That alone would have swung Fl to Hillary in 2016.

Link to tweet

?s=20

[MoonlitKnight]

39. Looking good

Orange is crushing it. Pinellas looks good. Even Pasco. Seminole turning out. Volusia needs to GOTV.

[uponit7771]

40. K&R,

[Roland99]

41. If the NPA split is even about 3% more for D than R, I think we have FL!

Link to tweet