Charlie Cook: Expect a 9-10 point Biden win today

[Dr. Jack]

Carlie Cook over at the Cook Political Report released his final thoughts and predictions on where this election is headed. He has been a bit more bullish and less equivocal about Bidens chances of victory. He believes that sites like RCP and 538 aren't being selective enough with their polling averages, so a lot of shitty right wing numbers are getting thrown in. He believes that Biden is looking at a 9-10 point win nationally and not a 7-8 point win. He also doesn't think the polls are underestimating Trump.

The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Biden’s lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But that’s a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent.

I believe his actual lead is more like 9 or 10 points, based on the higher-quality, live-telephone-interview national polls conducted since the first debate, as well as the gold standard of online polling, the Pew Research Center’s mammoth poll of 11,929 voters released two weeks ago.

...

What I am wondering is if this will be one or the rarest species of national elections—a wave election in a presidential year ending in a zero, meaning it will reverberate for a decade thanks to the coming redistricting. There are not a dozen Republican Senate seats that could fall, as Democrats suffered in 1980, but Joe Biden may well replicate Ronald Reagan’s 10-point victory over President Carter. The odds are it will be a bit less, perhaps in the 53 to 44 percent range, with 3 percent going to independents and write-ins, half of the number from four years ago.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/dont-expect-contested-election

[beachbumbob]

1. I see 9-10pt margin as the MINIMUM. 3RD party will take 1% and if trump hits 44% which would be

extremely unlikely, Biden wins by 15pts

[lagomorph777]

13. 56 - 44 equals 12 points, assuming zero write-ins/indies

Which would still be cool.

[Wellstone ruled]

2. Take it to the Bank.

[JCMach1]

3. I am expecting 12-14 once the West Coast is counted

[underpants]

10. Remember 78-3. Joe has 28% of 270 in his back pocket.

California Oregon Washington Hawaii are 78 EC votes. Alaska is 3.

[ProfessorGAC]

16. Add 18 For Illinois

There are cinches here in central time, too!
So, he's starting with well over 100!

[The Magistrate]

4. It Does Seem That Sort Of a Year, Sir

[CaliforniaPeggy]

5. Thanks for this fascinating article, my dear Dr. Jack!

I like reading stuff like this. It helps me concentrate on the good numbers and to ignore the rest.

I hope Charlie Cook is right!

[DLCWIdem]

6. How can Biden be underestimated and tRump be underestimated at the same time

[LizBeth]

7. I was thinking the 6-7 was too low too.

[True Blue American]

8. Just received an email!

Last chance to get your Trump Golden Coin! Act now!

[Windy City Charlie]

9. If that's the case

If that's the case, this will be getting called tonight....but I'm sure Trump will be crying that Biden shouldn't be declared the winner until all of the votes have been counted.

[lagomorph777]

14. LOL of course he will!

[triron]

11. Excellent news.

[BusyBeingBest]

12. Guess we'll figure out which side lives in an unreality bubble tonight.

God I hope it's them and not us.

[joshcryer]

15. We need to gerrymander the shit out of this thing.

[DIVINEprividence]

17. It is like 1980 in reverse

I am firmly in the “this will be a blowout” camp