Republicans will likely need to he up 4%+ in returns for Trump to win Florida...

[Drunken Irishman]

Even if you see numbers that suggest more Republicans are voting than Democrats - that is fine. The expectation is that NPA (No Party Affiliated) voters are going to break heavily for Biden. Couple that with the strong Democratic support Biden has (fewer flips) and for Trump to win Florida, he likely needs to have a +4 GOP electorate and right now he's not getting it.

[Johnny2X2X]

1. I think much higher than that.

Trump won't win 90% of FL Republicans, Biden is going to win 98% of Dems, and also win Independents too.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. And that's the rub - if Trump struggles to keep GOP support, you're right. It will be much higher.

I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say he hangs onto the base.

[Johnny2X2X]

7. Every poll had him losing more Reps than Joe loses Dems by a large margin

I saw 87-13 for Reps voting for Trump and 97-2 for Dems voting for Joe, those numbers would mean a landslide for Joe in FL.

[wryter2000]

2. Such good news

There's at least one other thread saying the same thing. Thanks to you both!

I saved your projection for tonight. I can't wait to follow along as it all turns true.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. I pray I'm right.

[Drahthaardogs]

5. Yep, now around 1%

Assuming crossovers and indies break our way, we win Florida

[Roland99]

6. Independents are WAY outperforming Repubs this year

https://www.democraticunderground.com/104511396