2 pm Update from Miami Dade. Next Update at 5 pm

[catbyte]

[PTWB]

1. Florida is looking pretty rough.

We're way behind where we were in 2016 (based purely on partisan turnout) - we'll need the NPAs to break heavily for Biden to win FL or pick up a significant number of Rs.

In 2016 NPAs went for Trump, in 2018 NPAs went for Ds in the mid terms. We'll see what they do this time.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. This is just an incorrect take.

[Chichiri]

11. I hope you're right, but why?

Talk me down....

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Because Democrats appear to be doing better in election day voting...

It's unclear if it'll be enough to offset the GOP gains but they're holding their own.

Moreover, Trump needs the GOP to be at least +4% the final results or he risks losing solely because Biden is expected to win over the No Party Affiliation voters - maybe even by a sizable margin.

Right now, the GOP is not ahead by 4% in the total count.

[Johnny2X2X]

17. You are correct

Trump needs to have a large advantage today in Republican voter turnout, he's not coming close to what he needs to do to make up ground.

[PTWB]

19. That's simply not true.

We don't know how the NPAs will vote. They voted for Trump in 2016. They voted for D in 2018.

Republicans are running ahead of where they were in 2016 for turnout. They surpassed the total turnout advantage we had from early voting by 9 AM.

We NEED the NPAs to come through if we want to win FL.

[Johnny2X2X]

22. Biden will win maybe 10% of Republican voters in FL

Trump will win maybe 3% of Democratic voters. Biden is favored to win NPAs clearly. This is awful news for Trump.

[PTWB]

26. That would be great.

I really hope Joe does siphon some votes from the Rs and NPAs break for him - we'd win Florida.

My entire point here is that based purely on partisan turnout Republicans are doing BETTER than they did in 2016. In 2016 the NPAs broke for Trump. That cannot happen again if we want to win FL.

[Chichiri]

20. Thank you.

[PTWB]

16. HOW is this an incorrect take?

What part of what I wrote is in any way factually incorrect? Please, I'd love to be wrong.

[sweetloukillbot]

18. Dems were up by 100K in Miami Dade going into today not counting indies

And they're leading today according to the OP

How is this bad?

[PTWB]

23. We are relying on NPAs who went for Trump in 2016 to flip to Biden in 2020.

Republicans are beating their 2016 turnout advantage right now. We need NPAs to flip, big. We won NPAs in the mid terms in FL in 2018... but we lost them in 2016 to Trump.

In 2016 Republicans had a turnout advantage of approximately ~57,000 at the end of the day. Trump won FL by ~112,000 votes.

In 2020 (right now!) Republicans already have a turnout advantage of ~133,000 voters - significantly more than in 2016, and they're gaining. They started out this morning with a turnout deficit of over 100,000 voters.

We CAN still win this but we're relying completely on NPAs breaking for Biden, or a couple % of Rs breaking for Biden. I'm not saying it isn't doable, I'm saying we're not in an overly strong position and that based purely on turnout %, Republicans are running ahead of where they were in 2016.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Your take isn't factually correct to begin with and yet you want me to prove you wrong?

It's been known that Trump likely needs the final voting electorate to be +4 GOP for him to win (at least) and that isn't the case at the moment. Miami-Dade and Broward County are already seeing higher turnout than expected and turnout in Broward has already eclipsed 2016's total. Beyond that, the concern from Democrats was those voters who passed on voting early in these counties would not vote on election day - therefore giving the GOP better margins in these counties.

This update suggests that is not the case.

Remember, 63% had already voted in Miami-Dade prior to today. Add the fact Democrats are doing okay in election day votes here, and that is NOT bad news or 'rough'. There's a reason the twitter dude quoted in this thread appears happy.

Link to tweet

If he's happy - I am happy.

Does this mean Biden is going to win Florida? No. But it's far from rough. It's probably better for him than what many were expecting 24 hours ago.

[PTWB]

24. You say my take is incorrect but provide no numbers.

My take is that Republicans are outperforming their turnout advantage in 2016, which means we need some % of Rs or a large % of NPAs to break for Biden to win FL. In 2016 NPAs went for Trump. In 2018 NPAs went for Ds.

In 2016 Republicans had a turnout advantage of approximately ~57,000 at the end of the day. Trump won FL by ~112,000 votes.

In 2020 (right now!) Republicans already have a turnout advantage of ~133,000 voters - significantly more than in 2016, and they're gaining. They started out this morning with a turnout deficit of over 100,000 voters.

We CAN still win this but we're relying completely on NPAs breaking for Biden, or a couple % of Rs breaking for Biden. I'm not saying it isn't doable, I'm saying we're not in an overly strong position and that based purely on turnout %, Republicans are running ahead of where they were in 2016.

[Drunken Irishman]

25. I provided numbers - and so did the OP.

You're refusing to accept 'em. Have fun with that.

Anyone who is claiming Florida is rough at this moment is either completely detached from what we're actually seeing or is pushing the GOP narrative.

Florida isn't rough right now. Not when Broward County has already eclipsed 2016's total turnout. But you do you.

[PTWB]

30. Take a breath, friend.

You said "That's just an incorrect take."

The take was that we need NPAs and / or some % of Rs to break for Biden for him to win. I'm pretty sure we are in complete agreement with that so I'm not sure what you're trying to argue against.

Do you dispute that Republicans are running AHEAD of their partisan turnout advantage in 2016? Is 57,000 less, or more, than 133,000 (and currently growing)? *edit: 3:15 PM EDT - ~157,000

Of course if Joe wins NPAs by 10% and siphons 10% of Rs we're going to win FL. That isn't the question, wasn't the question, and never will be the question.

[yardwork]

9. Are you including early voting in that assessment?

[catbyte]

13. No. This is who is voting today.

[PTWB]

15. Yes.

[qazplm135]

10. Rough? No. Close? Yeah.

Which any reasonable person always expected.

If you were looking for a blowout in Florida either way....

[obamanut2012]

28. Wait, wut????

This is not true at all. This is decently good news.

[PTWB]

29. It could be good news if NPAs break like they did in 2018.

It would be horrible news if they break like they did in 2016.

The simple fact is Republican turnout advantage is greater than it was in 2016 - ~57k advantage in 2016, ~130k advantage right now and growing.

If the NPAs break for Biden, and Biden can siphon some decent % of R votes from Trump, he can absolutely win. But being behind where we were in 2016 (based purely on partisan turnout) is not where I wanted to be right now.

[MontanaMama]

2. What's NPA?

Sorry, I am sleep deprived and a little wonky today...

ETA: Non Party Affiliate...I just looked it up.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. No Party Affiliation.

[Rice4VP]

5. No Party Affiliation

[mindem]

7. Is it No Party Affiliation?

[Drunken Irishman]

3. REMEMBER: THIS IS SAME DAY VOTE THAT SHOULD SKEW GOP! THIS IS GOOD NEWS!

Because it means those Democrats who did not vote early are coming out at numbers better than expected so far (that was the concern, these Democrats would not vote at all and the gains the Republicans saw on same-day voting would make margins smaller in the county when early vote was added).

[Buckeye_Democrat]

8. Yes!

Pour it on, Florida Dems!

[Dem2]

12. Exactly

I wish people who aren't in tune with this cycle would be quiet - my chest has been hurting from anxiety all day and I have no use for armchair quarterbacks.

[DIVINEprividence]

27. This is good news

We are holding our own on Election Day. I think NPA break solid for Biden