I Think Biden Campaign Already Knows (Axios)

[Skraxx]

This is messaging from a campaign that knows it's going to win:

Biden campaign believes it has 8-point battleground early vote lead

Joe Biden's campaign said Tuesday that it believes it has at least an 8-point advantage in battleground states after analyzing the nearly 100 million ballots that were cast early.

Why it matters: The campaign is arguing that it will be mathematically difficult for President Trump to close the gap with in-person voting on Election Day, and it's working to create the impression that a Biden victory is most likely.

The Biden camp also believes the former vice president can win 270 electoral votes even without Florida and Pennsylvania.
"That allows us to continue to have these multiple paths to victory," Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s campaign manager, said in a briefing with reporters.
"Florida is a coin toss without a doubt," she added. In the Midwest, she said the campaign believes it is "ahead significantly — by 10 points or more coming into Election Day. "

https://www.axios.com/joe-biden-campaign-battleground-state-lead-55cd1298-3aab-4a11-8fd5-5efafc8b3220.html

[TlalocW]

1. I'm inclined to believe this

First, Biden is not Trump. You don't have to lie to him so as not to incur his wrath. Second, he has a really good team full of top-notch talent that is good at doing the math. Trump's team is, once again, sycophants who don't have the skillset.

Fingers crossed.

TlalocW

[Skraxx]

2. Yup, Exactly

[Raster]

3. I am inclined to agree, TlalocW

[leftieNanner]

22. Very good points

Part of the problem that the White House will face tonight and going forward is that they have been lying to him about winning because if they tell him the truth, he blows up at them. This is also why he will claim fraud when he loses.

Scary times.

Go Joe!

[BComplex]

4. I so hope this is correct. I don't know how much more I can take of election day.

I want so bad for Texas, NC and Florida to go for Biden. It's just a huge wish of mine.

[Chili]

5. we can hit 270...

...without PA or FL if we win either OH, VA, NC or GA, not to mention TX. Any one of those - as long as we don't lose a single Hillary state - would do it.

[llmart]

6. I have to believe we'll win Virginia.

What do you think?

[Chili]

7. Yes

The latest poll I saw had Biden up by 2 (10/31). If today's voting exploded in VA like other states, it's a good chance it'll go into the Biden column!

[llmart]

8. I sure hope so.

They have been impressing me as a state lately. I also hope NC gets on board too.

[Chili]

10. NC & VA

Obama was the first Dem to take VA (2008, 2012) and NC (2008) in decades. Hillary took VA too - can it be considered a blue state yet? Maybe not, but they'll be coming home! (sorta home! )

[phylny]

17. Oh, absolutely.

Plus, Senator Mark Warner is handily ahead in the polling.

[SunnyATT]

23. I don't think you meant to include

Virginia. It's GA, NC, Texas , or the combination of Ariz. (11 e.v.) and Ne (1 e.v.) that would put Biden over the 270 threshold w/o Fla. or Penn.

[Chili]

27. no - Hillary states + MI, WI give Biden 258

That's without PA (but with WI, MI) - sorry, been watching Kornacki and that CNN guy (Dana Bash's husband) all week!

MI & WI can't be caught by Trump (it is believed).... so:

With MI & WI, he only needs 12, just one of these: VA, OH, GA, or of course TX, that's IT. He only needs one of them.

Sorry for the confusion!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. Are you sure? Oh wait you are saying win Ohio and Va. Then also

NC or GA.

[Chili]

28. sorry!

Please see my #23 post above: Hillary's states + Mi & WI gives Joe 258. He then only needs 12 to get to 270.

Sorry for the confusion, had assumed "current" 258 in my head because Trump probably cannot get MI, WI.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

32. We are ALL in our own heads tonight. For me - me and John King

Only two people on earth.

[Chili]

34. LOL

I know what you mean!

And I'm flipping back & forth between the two K's - Kornacki & King - and realized, Hillary took VA, so it's OH, GA & NC, if PA doesn't go Biden.

And Florida? I didn't really have hope for it.

[Wounded Bear]

9. They have a lot of reasons to be confident...

I feel pretty good about things today.

[crickets]

11. Wonderful news, and good job that they're getting the message out

ahead of everyone, especially trump. Everyone keep voting! 🤞 for GA!

[Harker]

12. Maybe he can beat Trumpsky in claiming victory.

That'll throw the bastard.

[bucolic_frolic]

13. The country is tacitly solidifying around that idea

It's unspoken, no winks, just calm subtle language and reassurance. It's like sanity is going to bite Trump hard, and Trump will be the last to know, right after the GOP Senate traitor-tots find out.

They had Trump on the ropes, they could have removed him. They sided with him for political reasons, ignored all the evidence, and COVID bit them in their big fat Republican arses.

[birdographer]

14. We got this. nt

[Yavin4]

15. Bookmarking for later. n/t

[kimbutgar]

16. I hope they're right - I got scared for the first time today - probably left over anxiety from 2106.

I heard on my local news here in San Francisco that mf45 has a good chance of being re elected. They showed these supporter cult members of his standing over a freeway overpass and a bunch of people honking. Of course that area is very purple ( contra costa) a lot of racist types. A longtime friend of mine started dating a mf45 supporter and she is now in the qanon cult asking for prayers for MF45 to save America and get re elected. I decided to unfriend her as I think she is ignorant and I’m not wasting my time with her anymore. I don’t trust her judgement.

[George II]

18. Campaigns know much more about what's going on than we or the networks know.

[70sEraVet]

19. Trump and McConnell may be regretting pushing through Barrett

The evangelicals were willing to put up with Trump's scandals so they could get a conservative Supreme Court. They have it now, so they don't need to hold their noses and go to the ballet box. Trump would have been smarter to hold the Barrett confirmation for ransom; "No conservative justice unless you re-elect me".

[louis-t]

20. Can you imagine how much he would have won by without

voter suppression, dirty tricks, threatening phone messages, post office sabotage, etc, etc?

[AdamGG]

25. Without removing electronic mail sorters & mail boxes and voter roll purges and strict voter ID laws

and all the other bullshit, the last Republican to be elected President would have been in 1988.

I'd love to see a Democratic House/Senate/President enact some national voting reform that made it easy to register and vote, but it would probably get struck down by the right wing Supreme Court.

[AdamGG]

21. 270 without Florida or Pennsylvania

would mean Arizona or NC in the bag. Florida will give complete results tonight, so it will be a big load off worrying about the lagging states if that gets called for Joe tonight.

[Dopers_Greed]

26. God I hope so

The first signs will be how Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina fall.

If we pick-up any of these, I think we will cruise through the rest of the night. If we lose all three, that's a sign we're in trouble.

[Midnight Writer]

29. Joe listens to his expert advisers. Trump listens to FOX News and Hate Radio.

[Catherine Vincent]

30. I hope he's right.

I'm sooo nervous. I don't want a repeat of 2016.

[anneboleyn]

33. Me too. I have a terrible feeling like 2016, and I can't believe it's as close as the media is

claiming — seriously, without manipulation, how is it again and again coming down to a relatively small number of voters in key electoral college states?! Argh! I feel sick. I can’t believe this shit again!

[BobTheSubgenius]

31. Lots of the historical voting trends are easy to understand, for the most part.

It's not at all difficult to picture the Bible Belt as deep red, and CA and NY as deep blue, but PA kind of mystifies me. Is it the hangovers of steel and coal? Labour has typically been Left-ish, at least in most places. And Philadelphia? How is that not solid blue?