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RandySF

(58,659 posts) Tue Nov 3, 2020, 04:44 PM Nov 2020

7

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14 replies

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Posting without comment. (Original Post) RandySF Nov 2020 OP

I don't know how to interpret those numbers ... Hermit-The-Prog Nov 2020 #1

polls showed about 2:1 for dems..... n/t getagrip_already Nov 2020 #3

been seeing these same comments all day about fl..... getagrip_already Nov 2020 #2

Maybe this helps Dem2 Nov 2020 #4

Thankyou. It's the indie left swing, and it's too wide for the gop to catch. lindysalsagal Nov 2020 #6

It depends on how they break. In 2016 they went heavily for Trump. In 2018 they went for Ds. PTWB Nov 2020 #8

Thank you so much. I've been puzzling over the posts of these Mike 03 Nov 2020 #9

He's updated it again. PTWB Nov 2020 #5

Extrapolated (dangerous since vote rate will likely increase after work) Dem2 Nov 2020 #10

Yeah, that's about how I have it too. PTWB Nov 2020 #11

Crosstabs from the last Quinnipiac FL poll Dem2 Nov 2020 #12

Really stupid question ok_cpu Nov 2020 #7

4:40 PM update Dem2 Nov 2020 #13

Nate's analysis (looks good for Biden) Dem2 Nov 2020 #14

Hermit-The-Prog

(33,309 posts)

1. I don't know how to interpret those numbers ...

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 04:46 PM

Nov 2020

Will NPA break 50/50 or otherwise?

getagrip_already

(14,674 posts)

3. polls showed about 2:1 for dems..... n/t

Reply to Hermit-The-Prog (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 04:50 PM

Nov 2020

getagrip_already

(14,674 posts)

2. been seeing these same comments all day about fl.....

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 04:49 PM

Nov 2020

"Not the turnout they were hoping for... or needed...."

Love it!

Dem2

(8,168 posts)

4. Maybe this helps

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 04:51 PM

Nov 2020

Link to tweet

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lindysalsagal

(20,638 posts)

6. Thankyou. It's the indie left swing, and it's too wide for the gop to catch.

Reply to Dem2 (Reply #4)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 04:55 PM

Nov 2020

They would need a higher turnout today to surpass that. and it's not happening yet. Great news!

PTWB

(4,131 posts)

8. It depends on how they break. In 2016 they went heavily for Trump. In 2018 they went for Ds.

Reply to lindysalsagal (Reply #6)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 05:02 PM

Nov 2020

If they break like they did in 2018 (and like the polling suggests) Biden can still win FL pretty well, but at this point we're relying on the NPAs and not the Dems to carry us to victory in FL. I'd rather have a Dem lead at this point than rely on NPAs.

Mike 03

(16,616 posts)

9. Thank you so much. I've been puzzling over the posts of these

Reply to Dem2 (Reply #4)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 05:06 PM

Nov 2020

numbers for a couple of hours, not sure what to make of them.

PTWB

(4,131 posts)

5. He's updated it again.

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 04:51 PM

Nov 2020

Link to tweet

For reference, Rs were (+~57,000) in 2016.

We need NPAs to break heavily for Biden (they went for Trump in 2016, but Ds in 2018 midterms) and we need some Rs to vote for Joe, too.

FL is close enough that if those things happen Joe can still win. But the Republicans are turning out better than they did in 2016 which could be a problem.

Dem2

(8,168 posts)

10. Extrapolated (dangerous since vote rate will likely increase after work)

Reply to PTWB (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 05:14 PM

Nov 2020

This would give Republicans a 2.2% lead in turnout.

Using the numbers posted above, this would give Biden ~ 4.5% lead. Grain of salt here, but this is my simpleton 2:30 to 3:30 update extrapolated.

PTWB

(4,131 posts)

11. Yeah, that's about how I have it too.

Reply to Dem2 (Reply #10)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 05:16 PM

Nov 2020

FL is totally dependent on how these NPAs vote and if Joe can snag a couple of % more from the Rs than Trump snags from the Ds.

Dem2

(8,168 posts)

12. Crosstabs from the last Quinnipiac FL poll

Reply to PTWB (Reply #11)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 05:19 PM

Nov 2020

ok_cpu

(2,049 posts)

7. Really stupid question

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 04:55 PM

Nov 2020

What is 'Other'? In FL can you be registered Green, etc.?

In Ohio we pull a Dem, rep, or "issues only" ballot at the primary and that determines our party affiliation.

Dem2

(8,168 posts)

13. 4:40 PM update

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 05:58 PM

Nov 2020

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Dem2

(8,168 posts)

14. Nate's analysis (looks good for Biden)

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 06:21 PM

Nov 2020

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