I think we may be hearing the dreaded words "polling error" again by the prognosticators

[NRaleighLiberal]

Just in watching the 538 live blog, there is some head scratching going on with Florida, and the Georgia numbers so far also indicate that there is something that pollsters and aggregators are missing.

Still it is early - not panicking here (yet!) - but this isn't quite what I was hoping to see.

We also have to remember this is a plain flat out bizarre election, due to both trump and covid.

[Claustrum]

1. I am surprised at the GA number.

I thought we had a better chance. I was always skeptical to FL because of 2018.

[TheRealNorth]

2. Maybe its a FL thing

I remember in 2018 when FL didn't go our way and everyone was burying the Blue Wave at that point.

[NRaleighLiberal]

5. The Georgia number is illuminating if the NYT needle number holds

let's see what happens....but it is not particularly comfortable to see unfolding at the moment

[octoberlib]

12. Fulton co. (Atlanta )won't be reporting numbers tonight

Link to tweet

?s=20

[NRaleighLiberal]

13. yes, and that may be the theme of tonight - varying counting and reporting rates

[dchill]

3. Wouldn't bins and bins of unprocessed ballots in Post Offices...

...impact polling?

[empedocles]

10. Fair question

Earlier DU'ers suggested some factors just don't enter into polling equations.

[crickets]

14. Yes, and there are Atlanta GA ballots involved as well as FL.

[PTWB]

4. If polling missed in FL it's gonna be closer elsewhere, too.

Biden outperformed some metrics in FL so it may be enough to win, and we still have a chance at some big prizes.... but it is gonna be closer than I thought.

[GoCubsGo]

6. It took days before the 2018 Blue Wave became a Big Blue Wave.

I expect things will go this way again, barring major fuckery. Which is likely what is going on in Florida and Georgia, as is usual.

[Hoyt]

7. From what I've seen, the mail in and early votes don't lean as heavily

Democratic as many thought. Again, it’s early and some haven’t even counted early votes yet.

[uponit7771]

8. +1

[gracemcdonald]

9. Polling got it right on Florida

It was always going to be a toss-up. And Biden camp had been worried about Miami-Dade.

[qazplm135]

11. For whatever reason(s)

Biden has struggled getting out enough voters of color.

I think we may just have to be comfortable with a close win.

I know we wanted a blowout, but I just don't think that's in the cards.

A win very much is though, especially with the Ohio numbers which I think reflect well on the big three of WI, MI and PA, even if we don't ultimately win OH.

And guess what, that's the game.

[NorthOf270]

15. America is a racist country?

[Takket]

16. the GA numbers are only about 10% in in the cities. basically meaningless.

[Windy City Charlie]

17. If so

The polling business might as well go out of business.

[NRaleighLiberal]

18. Nate Silver essentially admitted that in one of their podcasts last week

[Mr. Sparkle]

19. Those 2 states are run by republicans. How may states run by dems dont match the polling?

When the election is over, it will be a good way to spot voter tampering.

[kwolf68]

20. Quit it

No evidence of vote tampering.