Nate Silver on Florida - kind of a sobering post (from 538 Live Blog)

[NRaleighLiberal]

NATE SILVER
NOV. 3, 8:39 PM
If Trump wins Florida, he’d shoot up to a 33 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, per our choose-your-own adventure interactive. The key question, of course, is how much a pro-Trump polling error in Florida would translate to other states.

[Dem2]

1. Ugh

My head is spinning. I knew this was going to be a long night, but why were the polls wrong again.

[herding cats]

2. I had similar thoughts.

I'm not saying we're out, we're from from it. But, this is not good potentially.

[budkin]

3. Florida reeks of fraud

Also I'll still take those overall odds.

[Goodheart]

4. Fuck off, Nate Silver. You don't know shit.

I can do what you do. Just accumulate some polls and average them. Big whoop.

You have zero insider information, zero insights above the average joe. FUCK OFF.

[mzmolly]

5. 33 percent is what Hillary had

if I recall?

[PTWB]

8. No, she was about 70% favored.

[mzmolly]

9. That's right. I mean Trump had.

Thanks!

[PTWB]

10. Right - Trump went into election night at about 30% in 2016z

[Windy City Charlie]

6. We can't close the deal

The problem is our party can't seem to close the deal, we're not good finishers. Trump's rallies appear to be allowing him to rally.

[kwolf68]

7. I'm sick of this

Trump is doing BETTER in Florida than 2016. Incredible

[AleksS]

12. That's what confuses me. Who are the idiots that said:

Gee! We need 4 more years of this!!!

I didn’t like him before, but he’s really grown on me in these last 4 years!

[Hassin Bin Sober]

11. Yeah, his interactive model has been saying that

But if you give Biden NC the odds get better again . Ohio would kill trump

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

[Renew Deal]

13. Some of the FL polls this week were ridiculous.

4-7 point leads for Biden.

[NoMoreRepugs]

14. 1 in every 25 people over the age of 10 has contracted

covid in Florida by my quick estimation ..... I live here, I cannot explain the dumbfuckery amongst my fellow Floridians. It defies logic.

Don’t forget DeSantis is trump-lite, skullduggery might be afoot.

[wackadoo wabbit]

15. But if Biden wins Arizona (and I'm still hoping/assuming that he will), then his chances of getting

to 270 (even if Trump does take Florida) are 85%. So don't fret yet.